The FCS upset over a Power Four opponent, while always rare, used to be an annual rite of the college football season. Now it might be extinct.
Power conference teams have won 125 straight games against FCS competition. The last upset came in Week 4 of the 2023 season, when Sacramento State — now making its own jump to the FBS in 2026 — stunned Stanford 30-23.
Two full seasons have passed without another. Will we ever see one again?
The gap between the top of college football and the FCS keeps widening, and the transfer portal and NIL are the biggest reasons why. It’s harder every year for FCS programs to hang onto their best players, many of whom leave for the FBS level.
Since the first full year of the NIL era in 2022, FBS power conference teams are 223-2 (.991) against FCS opponents. Compare that to the 16 seasons prior (2006-2021), when power conference teams were 747-38 (.952) against FCS opponents, and the shift is evident.
It’s not limited to the top either. Group of Six teams still occasionally fall to FCS competition, going 238-20 (.922) over the past four seasons. But even that rate is down from the previous 16 years.
FBS vs. FCS competition
| Year(s) | Power Four/Five vs. FCS | Group of Five/Six vs. FCS |
|---|---|---|
|
2025 |
60-0 (1.000) |
62-4 (.939) |
|
2024 |
58-0 (1.000) |
57-6 (.905) |
|
2023 |
52-1 (.981) |
60-3 (.952) |
|
2022 |
53-1 (.981) |
59-7 (.894) |
|
2006-21 |
747-38 (.952) |
677-82 (.892) |
The talent drain is only getting worse. Sacramento State isn’t the only proven FCS member leaving the level this season. North Dakota State is, too. The Bison went 6-4 against power-conference opponents since 2006 and 9-5 against FBS competition overall, making them the most successful FCS program of the era.
Jacksonville State, which made the same jump in 2023, picked up four FBS wins in its final 13 FCS seasons, including two over Ole Miss (2010) and Florida State (2021).
Breaking the streak may take a near-perfect alignment and a bit of luck for the FCS side.
There are more than 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups on the 2026 schedule. Fifty-seven of those pit an FCS program against a Power Four opponent, and 11 of those feature a preseason top-25 FCS team. If the streak is going to end this season, it’s probably going to come from there.
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So, here are the six games with the best chance of finally doing it.
No. 3 South Dakota State at Northwestern
South Dakota State will certainly get the respect it deserves from Northwestern coach David Braun. He spent four seasons as North Dakota State’s defensive coordinator (2019-22) and knows firsthand the caliber of opponent South Dakota State will bring to open the 2026 season.
Northwestern has been on the wrong end of three FCS upsets since 2006, including losses to New Hampshire (2006), Illinois State (2016) and Southern Illinois (2022).
South Dakota State, meanwhile, is just two years removed from winning back-to-back FCS national championships and returns quarterback Chase Mason, who missed five games last season because of injury. The Jackrabbits are 0-4 against Power Four opponents since their 2015 win at Kansas, but two of those losses — at Minnesota in 2019 and at Iowa in 2022 — came by a combined 11 points.
No. 9 Youngstown State at Kentucky
It would be quite the buzzkill in Lexington if the Will Stein era opened with a loss to Youngstown State. Expectations are high after Kentucky landed a top-10 transfer portal class, but first-year coaches have learned the hard way that talent alone doesn’t guarantee immediate success.
The Penguins bring back reigning Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard (the FCS equivalent of the Heisman Trophy) after an impressive 2025 season. Brungard threw for 3,234 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 1,468 rushing yards and 27 more scores on the ground.
Kentucky will have the talent edge, but Youngstown State has the quarterback who can make this uncomfortable.
No. 10 North Dakota at Nebraska
Huskers fans won’t need much reminding of the last time North Dakota came to Lincoln in 2022. The Fighting Hawks had Nebraska in a battle for three quarters before the Big Red escaped with a 38-17 win. And just eight days later, Scott Frost was fired.
The program is in a much different place under Matt Rhule, and Nebraska still hasn’t lost a game to an FCS opponent.
But North Dakota has the pieces to make this a problem if Nebraska isn’t careful. Dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker, an Omaha native, are back from a 2025 team that nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State. They were just 42 seconds away from leaving Manhattan with a win.
No. 14 Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State
Mississippi State could make a jump in Year 3 under Jeff Lebby this season, especially with the emergence of quarterback Kamario Taylor. But there is also a scenario in which the Bulldogs are completely checked out come November.
With one of the toughest schedules in the country, Mississippi State could be riding a lengthy losing streak by the time Tennessee Tech arrives in Starkville. The Golden Eagles went 11-2 in 2025, and coach Bobby Wilder has reloaded with another strong transfer class for 2026.
That could be a dangerous spot for a team that has already spent most of the season getting beaten up in the SEC if things don’t go well.
No. 17 Austin Peay at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt enjoyed two breakthrough seasons with quarterback Diego Pavia at the helm, but he’s gone, leaving coach Clark Lea to prove the Commodores can sustain that momentum without him. A step back is expected following Vanderbilt’s first 10-win season in program history in 2025, but the Commodores are just four years removed from an embarrassing 23-3 loss to East Tennessee State in 2022.
Austin Peay brings plenty of firepower of its own. Governors quarterback Chris Parson, who began his career at Mississippi State, was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award last season after throwing for 3,003 yards and 23 touchdowns while adding 743 rushing yards and 14 scores. If Vanderbilt takes a step back, Parson and the Governors have enough talent to make it hurt.
No. 22 Monmouth at West Virginia
Monmouth has made a habit of giving Group of Six teams fits in recent years, beating FIU in 2024 before taking Charlotte down to the wire in 2025. But West Virginia will be the first Power Four opponent the Hawks have faced.
The Mountaineers are a perfect 24-0 against FCS competition, but this is a much different West Virginia roster under Rich Rodriguez. He and his staff have essentially flipped the roster twice since arriving, adding more than 70 new players for 2026.
That kind of turnover can bring plenty of talent, but it also creates uncertainty about how quickly all those new pieces will mesh.
