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‘Arsenal have been trying to nick 1-0 wins’ – do they need mindset change?Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Arsenal have struggled to score goals from open play this seasonByAlex Howell
“It’s a new league now.”
That’s what Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta mentioned after Sunday’s defeat by Manchester City. And now, following City’s 1-0 win over Burnley on Wednesday night, it has officially started.
Both sides are on 70 points with a +37 goal difference, with five league games left to play.
After spending 209 days at the top of the table, the Gunners have been leapfrogged by Pep Guardiola’s side on goals scored.
So do Arsenal need to change their mindset in the run-in for the title?
Arsenal have missed multiple chances this season to extend their lead at the top of the table.
They could have moved 12 points clear at one stage. But back-to-back defeats by Bournemouth and Manchester City mean the Gunners have now won just six of their past 13 league games and momentum has swung towards Guardiola’s side.
Arteta has mentioned that “everything is still to play for” but now might be the time to let his attacking players express themselves.
Someone who knows all about a title being decided on goal difference is Wayne Rooney, who was part of the Manchester United squad that finished second behind City in the 2011-12 campaign.
Talking on the BBC’s Wayne Rooney podcast, the former striker mentioned his manager Sir Alex Ferguson “used to always say keep trying to score because it might be decided on goal difference”.
“At the time you’re thinking ‘it’s never going to go to goal difference’ but it did that one time.”
Kai Havertz is one of Arteta’s favourite players and he started instead of Viktor Gyokeres against City.
The German showed his ability to hold the ball up and link the Arsenal attack together but he is not a natural finisher and missed two crucial chances against City.
However, despite the swing in momentum, Rooney mentioned: “I’d probably still have Arsenal as slight favourites.
“Arsenal have been trying to nick 1-0 wins but they need to change that mindset and go at teams and win by three or four goals.”
Arsenal have won 10 games by just one goal in the Premier League this season.
That means almost half of their wins have been by a single goal margin (10 of 21 – 48%), the highest percentage by a potential champion since Leicester in 2016 (61%).
But that does not mean that the Gunners can’t win the title with that method. The average number of one-goal wins in a title-winning campaign is 10.7.
Sergio Aguero’s goal for Manchester City against Queens Park Rangers on the final day of the 2011-12 season snatched the title away from Rooney’s United in one of the Premier League’s most famous moments.
Rooney has also benefitted from narrow wins leading to league titles.
He played for the 2008-09 and 2012-13 United teams that won the trophy with the most victories by a one-goal margin – both 16 – 57% of their wins.
Arsenal are on course to be the lowest-scoring Premier League champions from open play.
They have averaged 1.15 open play goals per game so far this season.
The fewest goals from open play scored by a victorious side is 46 by Leicester in 2015-16. Arsenal need nine open play goals from five games to beat it.
Liverpool, in 2019-20, were the last team to have a significant number of victories by a single goal in a title-winning season. They had 32 wins that campaign, with 14 being by the narrowest margin.
Arsenal and City are currently level on goal difference, but Guardiola’s side are top because they have scored three more than the Gunners.
Arsenal’s goal difference of +37 after 33 games averages out at a goal difference of +1.12 per game.
If Arsenal continue at that rate they would end up with a goal difference of +43, which would be the lowest since Leicester won the title 10 years ago with a joint-record low of +32.
Last season Liverpool lifted the title with a goal difference of +45.
The average goal difference of a Premier League champion is +50, while the biggest was Manchester City’s +79 in 2017-18.
Arsenal are currently averaging 1.91 goals per game (63 in 33 games) which means they’re on course to be the first Premier League champion to score fewer than two goals per game on average since Leicester (1.79).
The fact that only 60% of their goals have been from open play would also be a historic low if they won the title in what is a low-scoring season.
Phil Johnson, a chartered member of the British Psychological Society’s Division of Sport and Exercise told BBC Sport that as Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League increased, their performances dipped.
“What we’re seeing with Arsenal is something I often see when I work with swimmers and runners,” Johnson mentioned.
“They’re so close to the finish line that for a moment they imagine that they’ve already won – their bodies and their brains just kind of relax that little bit more and they get pipped to the post.
“When Arsenal were nine points clear of City we saw that the energy of the team dropped. They were slower and less determined.
“They weren’t offensive in terms of tackling and regaining possession, except when they were pushed hard.” added.
When Arsenal kick-off against Newcastle on Saturday, they will be in second place for the first time since August and the tension at Emirates Stadium will be high.
“Arsenal need to score goals. It’s OK winning 1-0 but when you look at the goal difference between the two teams it’s so narrow,” added Johnson, who has worked with a number of clubs including Liverpool, Everton and Monaco.
“I think that when Arsenal wake up, they can be absolutely phenomenal and they’re also very creative. If they get this right then they can stay where they are.”
Additional reporting by BBC Football Data Analyst Chris Collinson
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