I had planned to be doing errands and betting research through around 5 p.m. ET today, but I’ll be cutting that short by an hour and hitting a Happy Hour for MLB’s lone matinee, which begins at 4:10. That’s because it is not just any game but quite possibly a pitching preview of Game 1 of an NL Division Series matchup with Chris Sale and the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves visiting Jacob Misiorowski and the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
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There are really no interesting division races in the Senior Circuit. The Braves and Brewers have comfortable leads atop the East and Central, respectively, while the Dodgers are lapping the field out West. Obviously, now the main thing to watch is the top of the NL standings between that trio to avoid the No. 3 seed and having to host a Wild Card round matchup against a dangerous team like Philadelphia, San Diego or Arizona.
Entering Friday, the Brewers (79-49) hold the top spot by two games over the Dodgers. Last Sunday’s win by Milwaukee in Los Angeles was massive because it clinched the season series, 4-3, so that means the Brewers would win any tiebreaker over L.A. for seeding. Thus, I’m a bit surprised the Dodgers are still -160 favorites for the No. 1 seed and Milwaukee next at +190. Atlanta (75-53) is four games back and +1400.
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Braves-Brewers MLB same-game parlay
- Milwaukee money line
- No Run First Inning
DraftKings SGP price: +149 (may change)
The Braves are in a bit of a travel nightmare spot here. They were swept in a three-game series in Minneapolis on Wednesday, had to fly to Chicago late and then play a makeup game on Thursday afternoon against another division leader and then obviously travel up to Milwaukee – although at least that’s a not-bad bus ride/puddle jump flight. The Braves did get a nice 2-0 win over the White Sox but used their trio of high-leverage relievers.
I’m definitely excited to see the pitching matchup between these two aces. The lanky lefty Sale won the 2024 NL Young Award with the Braves and has the numbers to deserve contention this year at 12-8 with a 2.16 ERA (second in the majors), 160 strikeouts and 1.02 WHIP (seventh). But you would actually be down -148 if you bet on Atlanta to win all of his 22 starts because Sale is usually a big favorite, so any losses are costly.
The 37-year-old has allowed more than three earned runs once all season and will get plenty of Cy Young votes. He’s the +850 second favorite for it. Sale enters on a two-game skid but both were quality starts — he has five in a row — as the Atlanta offense did little while he was in there. He took a no-decision vs. Milwaukee on June 20 in allowing two unearned runs over 5.2 innings. The model has him at 6.1 innings, 7.5 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs.
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Barring like immediate injury, oddsmakers clearly think the NL Cy Young race is over with the lanky righty Misiorowski the -750 favorite. He’s 12-5 while leading the majors in ERA (1.75), strikeouts (210) and WHIP (0.75). Last time out in another potential postseason preview, he dominated the Dodgers in Los Angeles in a victory.
Really the only question regarding “the Miz” is if the Brewers start truly monitoring his pitch count. I highly, highly doubt you see him go seven innings again in the regular season unless he is at something like 75 pitches through six. Last year as a rookie, Misiorowski ran out of gas a bit down the stretch. In 2025, he pitched 129 1/3 total innings across the majors (including playoffs) and the minors. This year, he’s at 139.0 innings.
“I haven’t heard anything about it,” Misiorowski recently reported to the media about limits. “That could be the case, but from what I know, they’re pretty much letting me go do my thing.”
The 24-year-old lost in Atlanta on June 19, just missing Sale, allowing two runs with seven Ks over six. The model has Misiorowski at 5.6 innings, 8.0 strikeouts, 4.3 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs.
I was curious if we would get a playoff-level total of 5.5, which is very rare in the regular season, but no dice. At -195, this has to be the most expensive NRFI of the season but that’s why parlays exist. As mentioned, the Braves’ travel wasn’t great and the bullpen is a bit taxed so there’s no reason I wouldn’t back the Brewers at home. The model has them winning by a score of 4.5-4.4. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
