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Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: The playoff races in the American League for the West division and third wild-card spot are the worst in MLB history. Or maybe the weirdest, if you want a nicer description.
This week began with only four AL teams posting winning records. The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers were tied for the AL West lead at 65-66 with the Cleveland Guardians matching them with the same record, meaning if the playoffs had started Monday, two teams with losing records would be heading to the postseason. Five other teams were within 3½ games of a playoff spot. But these races are so lame that the Seattle Mariners have lost games in August by scores of 22-0, 19-2, 11-0 and 8-0 — and remained in the same spot that they were in at the start of the month, three games out of first place in the division.
There have been mediocre teams to reach the playoffs before, and there have even been three teams with losing records to make the playoffs — but two of those came in the expanded playoffs of the shortened 2020 season, which doesn’t really count, and the other came in the split season of 1981, which doesn’t really count either. By full-season winning percentage, the worst playoff teams are:
• 2005 San Diego Padres: 82-80 (NL West champs)
• 1973 New York Mets: 82-79 (NL East champs)
• 2025 Cincinnati Reds: 83-79 (wild card)
• 2006 St. Louis Cardinals: 83-78 (NL Central champs)
• Five teams tied at 84-78
What makes this current race especially strange, though, is that only one of the eight teams has a positive run differential — and those Detroit Tigers somehow began the week with the worst record of the eight. Six of the eight teams aren’t even close to breaking even in run differential.
But the rules are the rules: Two of these teams will make the playoffs. Maybe with sub-.500 records. Let’s dig into this and see what’s going on.
Why they’re in this position: Yordan Alvarez is a Triple Crown candidate and the AL MVP favorite. Josh Hader is 19-for-19 in save chances with a 0.81 ERA after a late start to his season.
Why they’re not better: The rotation is 28th in the majors with a 5.19 ERA, on pace for the lowest WAR by a Houston rotation in franchise history.
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? Daulton Varsho has hit .186 with six RBIs in 19 games.
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Schedule note: They’re done with the Rangers and have a tough trip to Philadelphia and Tampa Bay in mid-September, but the Astros end the season with four games on the road against the struggling Athletics — although the A’s just won a series in Houston.
Tiebreaker note: Won the season series 9-4 over the Rangers.
Random fact: Entering Monday, Astros starters were averaging 4.54 walks nine per innings, which would be the most for a starting rotation since the 1987 Rangers issued 4.94 walks per nine (Bobby Witt Sr. walked 140 batters in 143 innings that year).
Why they’re in this position: Utility man Ezequiel Duran has started games at seven different positions and leads the team in WAR. Closer Jacob Latz (1.68 ERA, 26 saves) leads the pitchers in WAR. The Rangers have gone 22-13 in one-run games.
Why they’re not better: They’re tied for 25th in runs per game, averaging 4.05. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.44 runs.
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? Chase Silseth has been OK out of the bullpen, but Logan O’Hoppe spent most of August in the minors and Adam Macko has also been in the minors.
Schedule note: They have a big nine-game homestand in September against the Boston, Toronto and the New York Mets before finishing with a series in Minnesota. Texas is done with the Astros and has one series left against the Mariners.
Tiebreaker note: The Rangers lost that season series to Houston, but they already hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners, Guardians, Blue Jays and Orioles, with the Twins to be determined (Texas is 0-3 against Minnesota).
Random fact: Evan Carter is batting .196. The only qualifying Rangers hitter to finish a non-COVID season hitting under .200 was Jim Sundberg, who hit .199 in 1975.
Why they’re in this position: They’ve used only six starting pitchers all season, with trade deadline acquisition Foster Griffin joining the rotation after coming from the Washington Nationals. The rotation is seventh in the majors in ERA and third in innings pitched.
Why they’re not better: The Guardians are tied for next-to-last in home runs, tied for 25th in batting average and 27th in wOBA.
Post-deadline guide to all 30 teamsHow each club’s playoff hopes have risen or fallen since the MLB trade deadline, plus how complete every team’s roster is today. Bradford Doolittle »
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? Griffin has gone 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts. Jo Adell has four home runs and 18 RBIs in 19 games. Nathaniel Lowe has 11 RBIs and a .658 OPS. The Guardians made some significant moves for a change and they’ve helped, even though Cleveland has gone 11-11 in August.
Schedule note: Cleveland has only two series the rest of the way against teams that currently have a winning record, the White Sox and Red Sox, both in the final two weeks.
Tiebreaker note: The Guardians lost the season series to both the Astros and Rangers but hold the tiebreaker against the Mariners and Tigers. Cleveland still has series to play against the Twins, Blue Jays and Orioles that will determine those season results.
Random fact: The Guardians are hitting .201 with two outs and runners in scoring position, 28th in the majors.
Why they’re in this position: Dylan Cease is challenging for the Cy Young Award (although has only eight wins) and the combination of Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland has been one of the best relief duos in the majors.
Why they’re not better: Kazuma Okamoto and George Springer are the only hitters with double-digit home runs, and Okamoto and Alejandro Kirk are the only regulars with an above-average OPS (and Kirk was on the injured list for two months).
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? The Jays played it both ways, trading Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and Jeff Hoffman while bringing in Jose Soriano, Spencer Arrighetti and Jameson Taillon. Soriano has been OK in four starts, Arrighetti has made only one relief appearance and Taillon got hurt. Brett Bateman, acquired in the Gausman trade, has replaced Varsho as the regular center fielder and has been hitting leadoff. The Jays have gone 13-10 so far in August.
Schedule note: The Jays are done with the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Red Sox — who the heck designed this schedule? — and their lone interleague series is the season-ender against a bad Reds team. This is a very favorable slate that could help the Jays squeak back into the postseason.
Tiebreaker note: They split 3-3 with the Astros and are 2-1 against the Guardians and 0-3 against the Rangers with a series left against those latter two teams.
Random fact: Believe it or not, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still hasn’t homered at home this season.
Why they’re in this position: They have three players with 20-plus home runs (Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens and Brooks Lee). Ryan Jeffers has been one of the best hitting catchers in the game when he wasn’t on the IL. Josh Bell has hit around .350 with an OPS over 1.000 with runners in scoring position.
Why they’re not better: The back of the rotation has been bad. They’ve gone 16-29 in interleague games. Their team defensive metrics are among the worst in the majors.
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? The Twins added pitching help with starter Dean Kremer and relievers Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter. Kremer has been a big lift to the rotation, with a 3.18 ERA in four starts, and Hoffman and Minter have provided some much-needed bullpen depth.
Schedule note: There are plenty of games against AL Central foes, including six each against the Chicago White Sox and Tigers (12 games in a row against those teams starting Friday). The Twins also have series against the Guardians and Yankees and finish at home against the Rangers.
Tiebreaker note: Minnesota went 4-2 against the Astros and 4-3 against the Blue Jays, clinching those season series, and is 3-0 against the Rangers. The Twins are 6-4 against the Guardians, so they need one win to clinch that series.
Random fact: The Twins collapsed in September 2024, missing the playoffs after going 9-18 the final month. Last year, they had the teardown at the trade deadline and went 19-35 over the final two months. This year, they’re 8-14 in August with three walk-off losses.
Why they’re in this position: They’re third in the majors in walks. They’ve had four starters make at least 22 starts. Pete Alonso has been producing runs after a slow start.
2026 MLB trade deadline recapHere’s what you need to know on the heels of a wild MLB trade season.
Deadline awards » | Winners & losers »
Execs weigh in » | Making sense of it all »
Why they’re not better: Gunnar Henderson is hitting .219, Jackson Holliday is hitting .236, Coby Mayo is hitting .212 and Colton Cowser is hitting .219. Nine different pitchers have saves, with the injured Ryan Helsley leading the team with eight.
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? Despite going 15-8 in July and rallying from a 7-0 deficit against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers on July 29 to pull off an improbable 10-9 victory, the Orioles instead elected to trade Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. Despite going 5-2 against first-place Tampa Bay in August, they’re still 10-12 for the month.
Schedule note: Baltimore is finished with the Rays but still has series left against the Yankees (the season finale), Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers, plus two against the Blue Jays.
Tiebreaker note: The Orioles hold the tiebreaker over Houston and Detroit, lose it to Seattle and Texas, and split against Minnesota. They’re 3-4 against the Blue Jays and 1-3 against the Guardians.
Random fact: The Orioles lead the majors in percentage of balls hit at 95-plus mph, at over 40%, and also lead in average exit velocity. So, they hit the ball hard. But they’re 26th in strikeout rate, so they’re often not putting the ball in play.
Why they’re in this position: The starting pitching has been pretty solid, at least until recently (they’re still first in the majors in rotation innings). Randy Arozarena (4.4) and Cole Young (4.0) have produced 4-win seasons (Baseball-Reference loves Young’s defense).
Why they’re not better: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, Bryan Woo and J.P. Crawford. Arguably the Mariners’ five best players last season, they have combined for just 4.4 WAR so far this season after totaling 23.9 in 2025.
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? Taylor Ward has been a big zero, hitting .122/.232/.163.
Schedule note: After a trip to Toronto and Boston starting this weekend, the Mariners couldn’t ask for an easier September: A’s and Rangers at home; A’s, Angels and Rockies on the road; and Astros and Angels at home to wrap it up.
Tiebreaker note: Seattle has clinched against the Astros with a 9-2 season lead (with two games left) but has already conceded to the Rangers with a 3-7 record (three games remaining). Still, that possibly gives the Mariners the edge in a three-way tie: They’re 12-9, the Rangers are 11-12 and the Astros are 11-13 in head-to-head action among the three teams.
Random fact: Raleigh’s 369-point drop in OPS would be the largest since Mark McGwire fell 421 points from 2000 to 2001 (and retired). Though, a three-homer game on Monday did alone raise his OPS 39 points. Want another? Bryce Miller started the 22-0 and 19-2 losses in consecutive outings, making him the first pitcher to lose consecutive starts by at least 17 runs since the immortal George Van Haltren of the 1890 Brooklyn Wonders of the short-lived Players League (he was a good outfielder with 40 career WAR, but apparently a lousy pitcher).
Why they’re in this position: Kevin McGonigle and Dillon Dingler have been two of the best players in the majors. Troy Melton has a 1.60 ERA in 15 starts. Keider Montero has quietly posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.3 WAR.
Why they’re not better: The bullpen. Though the Tigers are ninth in bullpen ERA, they rank 28th in relief win probability added as they’re 18-42 in games decided by one or two runs.
Inside the Tarik Skubal trade negotiationsHere is how one team emerged as the perfect match in the hours after Detroit asked for final offers for the sport’s top pitcher. Jeff Passan »
How have the trade deadline acquisitions done? You might remember Detroit punted at the deadline, trading Skubal and Casey Mize, who both had sub-3.00 ERAs.
Schedule note: The Tigers have four interleague series remaining (against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Rockies, Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates), so they have less ability to help themselves in head-to-head action against the other AL wild-card contenders.
Tiebreaker note: They’ve already lost the season series to the Guardians, Twins, Orioles and Astros while holding the edge against the Mariners and Rangers. Detroit is 1-2 against Toronto.
Random fact: The Tigers are going for some kind of dubious “worst” record with “best” run differential. Only four teams since 1900 have finished with at least a plus-70 run differential and a non-winning record: 2006 Cleveland (plus-88, 78-84), 1985 Red Sox (plus-83, 81-81), 2025 Rangers (plus-79, 81-81) and 2005 Blue Jays (plus-70, 80-82).
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