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The SEC has been going through a bit of an existential crisis of late. The league that demanded you judge it by all its national championships — 13 of them in 17 seasons between 2006 and 2022 — is suddenly in a drought, with Big Ten teams winning three straight titles. In fact, SEC teams have claimed only two of the eight spots in the semifinals of the first two 12-team College Football Playoffs. What’s wrong?
Not much, really. The SEC still produces the best average SP+ rating each season, usually by a comfortable margin, and 50% of its league games were decided by one score, tied with Conference USA for the highest percentage in the FBS. Its worst team had a better rating than the seven worst Big Ten teams; it’s just that its best team was lower than the Big Ten’s top three.
Will this phenomenon change in 2026? With how loaded Ohio State, Oregon and potentially Indiana will be again, it’s hard to say yes. But if Georgia can rediscover how to make big plays, or if Texas’ star transfers stay healthy and thrive, or Texas A&M’s line transfers click, or Lane Kiffin catches lightning in a bottle at LSU, or Keelon Russell ignites Alabama’s offense, or Pete Golding keeps his small-sample magic going at Ole Miss, or Oklahoma’s … well, you get the point. About three-quarters of the SEC has top-15 potential.
Who stands above the pack (besides, Georgia, which always does)? And can any of them win three to four playoff games this time? Let’s find out! And let’s preview the SEC!
TEAMREC. (CONF)SP+ RKOFF. SP+DEF. SP+ST SP+Georgia12-2 (8-1)61483Alabama11-4 (7-2)203611107Ole Miss13-2 (7-1)73201Texas A&M11-2 (7-1)10111497Vanderbilt10-3 (6-2)115397Oklahoma10-3 (6-2)1451433Texas10-3 (6-2)17301831Tennessee8-5 (4-4)1976334Missouri8-5 (4-4)214710116LSU7-6 (3-5)32761253Florida4-8 (2-6)63894317Kentucky5-7 (2-6)67814875Auburn5-7 (1-7)29591651S. Carolina4-8 (1-7)49863119Miss. St.5-8 (1-7)58398521Arkansas2-10 (0-8)54169944In the last SEC season with everyone playing eight conference games, we got a jumble at the top, with seven teams going 6-2 or 7-1. Five of them made the CFP, and the other two (Vanderbilt and Texas) came close. What happens with the shift to nine-game conference schedules?Continuity tableThe continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.TEAMRET PROD (RK)OFF/DEF RETSTARTS RETSTARTS INRSFRS. Carolina68% (5)76% / 61%12911316Texas68% (6)73% / 63%13012714Oklahoma68% (7)75% / 61%1377711Georgia68% (9)63% / 72%1694317Florida66% (11)55% / 77%12211611Texas A&M65% (15)67% / 63%11512321Tennessee62% (26)58% / 65%152836Ole Miss61% (28)61% / 62%14315616LSU61% (30)61% / 60%8913613Auburn57% (46)56% / 58%5317612Arkansas55% (56)55% / 55%7713912Missouri51% (70)59% / 43%838811Miss. St.48% (86)44% / 52%985514Alabama48% (90)35% / 61%119628Kentucky46% (98)40% / 52%669811Vanderbilt44% (106)38% / 49%1026610There’s a pretty big spread here, with SEC teams occupying five of the top 11 spots in the returning production rankings but four others ranking worse than 85th. Can 2025 underachievers such as South Carolina or Florida pull a rebound with strong continuity? Can Alabama avoid a further drop-off with heavy turnover after a late-season collapse?2026 projectionsTEAMSP+OFF.DEF.STAVG. WSOS RK4. Georgia25.438.2 (5)13.3 (5)0.6 (3)9.8256. Texas23.537.5 (8)14.4 (8)0.4 (31)8.619. Texas A&M20.337.3 (10)16.7 (14)-0.3 (99)8.41310. LSU20.032.4 (22)12.6 (2)0.2 (53)8.51911. Alabama18.031.2 (32)12.7 (4)-0.4 (109)8.01712. Oklahoma17.231.6 (27)14.7 (11)0.4 (33)7.3315. Ole Miss16.035.0 (11)19.7 (25)0.7 (1)7.2716. Tennessee16.038.6 (4)23.0 (49)0.4 (34)7.72019. Missouri14.832.2 (23)16.9 (15)-0.5 (118)7.31620. Florida14.730.1 (40)16.0 (12)0.5 (17)7.01025. S. Carolina12.029.8 (43)18.4 (21)0.5 (19)6.61426. Auburn11.128.4 (55)17.5 (18)0.3 (51)6.51531. Vanderbilt10.033.5 (15)24.1 (55)0.6 (7)6.52446. Arkansas5.034.1 (13)29.3 (91)0.3 (44)4.3252. Miss. St.3.830.1 (41)26.8 (76)0.5 (21)4.5954. Kentucky3.724.9 (76)21.2 (35)0.0 (75)4.28The 2026 season sets up in a similar fashion to 2025, with the SEC featuring 10 projected top-20 teams and none in the top three. And with the nine-game conference schedules, no team enjoys a projected win total higher than 9.8. It is going to be very interesting to see how the CFP committee reacts to a glut of 9-3 SEC teams* — especially (potentially) a squad such as Texas with what’s projected as the toughest schedule in the country — and the number of close games that will decide the top of the conference standings.(* My own view? The hard schedules are what the SEC money is for! It doesn’t entitle you to a CFP berth if you lose too many games. If you want easier schedules, ask to join the Big 12 or ACC. They’ll probably say yes.)TEAMAVG. CONF. W11+ WINS %6+ WINS %Georgia6.931.9%99.9%Texas6.37.6%98.1%LSU5.88.1%97.6%Texas A&M5.66.5%97.8%Alabama5.44.1%95.7%Tennessee5.02.3%92.4%Oklahoma5.01.3%88.2%Missouri4.61.3%88.5%Ole Miss4.61.4%87.3%Florida4.50.7%83.2%S. Carolina4.20.3%76.3%Vanderbilt3.90.3%75.2%Auburn3.80.2%73.9%Miss. St.2.20.0%21.6%Arkansas2.20.0%18.6%Kentucky2.00.0%17.1%Only Georgia has a better than 9% chance of going 11-1 or better, but 13 teams have a greater than 70% shot at reaching bowl eligibility. My favorite part of these projections is the fact that 11 of 16 teams are projected to win between 3.8 and 5.8 conference games. Whoever rips off a run of close wins is going to find itself in a very interesting position.Five best games of 2026Here are the five conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin of less than eight points.Sept. 26: Texas A&M at LSU. Granted, LSU’s Week 3 trip to Ole Miss might be the biggest SEC game of the season thanks to last winter’s Lane Kiffin soap opera. But by the criteria set above, the Tigers’ next game, back home in Baton Rouge, might be even bigger as far as the SEC chase is concerned.Oct. 10: Georgia at Alabama. We can only pray that this one’s as good as the last Bama-Georgia game in Tuscaloosa.play3:11No. 4 Bama survives late Georgia surge for thrilling winNov. 7: Georgia at Ole Miss. These teams played twice last season. The first game decided who would make the SEC title matchup. The second decided a spot in the CFP semifinals. And hey, for the moment at least, Ole Miss’ Pete Golding is unbeaten all time against Georgia’s Kirby Smart.Nov. 14 and 27: Texas at LSU and Texas at Texas A&M. Texas plays eight games against projected top-20 teams, and the last three are all on the road. The Longhorns will have to hit the ground running thanks to early games against Ohio State and Tennessee, but they’ll have to finish even stronger.My 10 favorite transfersLB Rasheem Biles, Texas. Losing star linebackers Anthony Hill Jr. and Liona Lefau should hurt, but in Biles, Texas landed someone even better. He made tackles on 15.8% of his snaps last season at Pitt (one every 6.3 snaps), and by the standards of tackling-machine LBs, he was ridiculously disruptive, making 15 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks and picking off two passes with five breakups.
QB Byrum Brown, Auburn. I’m really high on the USF transfer, who followed his head coach to the Plains after racking up 3,158 passing yards, 1,121 non-sack rushing yards and 42 total touchdowns last season.
RBs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, Texas. Frustrated with a poor 2025 running game, Steve Sarkisian went out and got two of the best backs in the portal. Brown is explosive and physical, having averaged 6.1 yards per carry (3.1 after contact) last season for Arizona State, while Smothers was absurdly physical, averaging 4.4 yards per carry after contact at NC State. Arch Manning is back, but Texas might be well served if he hands the ball off to one of these two a lot.
Bill Connelly’s Conference PreviewsLeading up to the 2026 season, we’re previewing every conference in college football.
Big Ten | Big 12 | ACC | Pac-12 | MWC | American | Sun Belt | Conference USA | MAC
WR Cam Coleman, Texas. I’m a bit concerned about Texas’ depth, but having four of my five favorite transfers probably means quite a bit as long as everyone is healthy. Coleman had drops issues at Auburn and never benefited from quality quarterback play, but the 6-foot-3, 200-pound former blue-chipper still made a series of highlight reel plays and could put all the pieces together catching passes from Manning.
OL Jordan Seaton, LSU. Another former blue-chipper, the Colorado transfer allowed zero sacks and had just a 1.1% blown block rate last year, absurd numbers for a left tackle on a bad offense. The personnel around him will be quite a bit better in 2026, but the only way he can improve in the sacks department is to start making them, too.
QB Sam Leavitt, LSU. Lane Kiffin flew to Knoxville to help land the former Arizona State quarterback, who was dynamite in the Sun Devils’ 2024 playoff push before injuries derailed his 2025 campaign.
WR Jayce Brown, LSU. Texas and LSU stood out in the transfers department. Kiffin landed a trio of explosive receivers, but my favorite is Brown, who averaged a monstrous 3.0 yards per route run last season at Kansas State and gained at least 30 yards on 10 of his 41 receptions.
DT Cody Sigler, Auburn. I love a big playmaker, and the fact that Sigler had eight tackles for loss and five sacks (and broke up five passes) while listed at 302 pounds at Arkansas State makes me think he’s going to translate well to SEC life.
LB Robert Woodyard Jr., Missouri. Losing star linebacker Josiah Trotter hurt, but in Woodyard, Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz might have found a like-for-like replacement. Woodyard made tackles on 14.7% of snaps last season and contributed to eight run stops, and at 245 pounds, he should pair nicely with the super speedy but 215-pound Nicholas Rodriguez in the middle of the Tigers’ defense.
Head coach: Kirby Smart (11th year, 117-21 overall)
2026 projection: fourth in SP+, 9.8 average wins (6.9 in the SEC)
Those chocolate-covered peanut butter pretzels at Trader Joe’s. Our dogs being thrilled to see me when I get home from a trip. Georgia being favored to brawl its way to the SEC title. It’s nice to have aspects of your life you can count on. Smart’s Dawgs have won three of the past four league titles and have made it to Atlanta eight times in nine years. The future of conference championship games is blurry right now, but as long as they exist, Georgia will probably be playing in them.
The main question facing UGA in 2026 is the same one as last year: Can the Bulldogs rediscover their national title form? After winning rings in 2021 and 2022 and falling short in 2023 only because of an upset loss in Atlanta — Michigan vs. Georgia would have been dynamite that year — the Dawgs finished sixth in SP+ in 2024 and 2025. That’s not shameful, but it’s not quite good enough, and the primary culprit has been big plays: They don’t allow many, but they don’t make nearly enough.
TruMediaGunner Stockton runs a super-efficient version of what I’ve been calling a blue-chip service academy offense, and with running backs Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens returning, along with big Kentucky RB transfer Dante Dowdell and seven linemen with starting experience — four of whom are sophomores — there’s no reason to think UGA will be any less efficient this season. It’s hard to assume the Dawgs will be more explosive either, but there’s hope. Transfer Isiah Canion (Georgia Tech) averaged 14.6 yards per catch, senior returnee London Humphreys averaged 15.3, and there are always lots of young former star recruits in the hopper.
Conservatism and quick passing are always the name of the game for a Mike Bobo offense, and Stockton is always happy to stretch defenses from side to side and rack up a huge success rate. Basing your offense around extreme efficiency makes perfect sense, as efficiency is far more sustainable and reliable than explosiveness; it’s what makes Georgia such a wonderfully reliable commodity. But big plays win the biggest games, and the Dawgs have lost two straight playoff games.
Georgia always has a top-10 defense, per SP+, but it hasn’t been higher than fifth since 2022. I’m betting that changes this year. Thirteen of the 18 defenders with 200-plus snaps return, including a thrilling trio of sophomores in tackles Elijah Griffin and Joseph Jonah-Ajonye and corner Ellis Robinson IV. The Dawgs have the deepest set of tackles in the country, the linebacking corps is loaded with experience, and safety transfer Khalil Barnes (Clemson) should help to make up for a couple of departures in the back. Georgia allowed 14 or fewer points eight times despite playing lots of freshmen and sophomores, and experience levels have doubled this time around. There’s no unit in this conference I’m more confident in.
The Bulldogs avoid the conference’s three other projected top-10 teams but still play six projected top-25 squads in an eight-game span. That the Dawgs are projected favorites in every game — and by multiple scores in all but two — makes it awfully likely they’ll be back in Atlanta in early December. We might have to wait until late December to find out whether their offense has that big-play boost it has lacked.
Head coach: Steve Sarkisian (sixth year, 46-20 overall)
2026 projection: sixth in SP+, 8.6 average wins (6.3 in the SEC)
Two things were true about Texas late in the 2025 season: 1) Sarkisian was being very disingenuous in all of his “Well, if we don’t get into the CFP, we’ll have to stop scheduling hard nonconference games” posturing (maybe try not losing to 4-8 Florida instead?), and 2) though the preseason No. 1 Longhorns indeed didn’t deserve to make the 12-team field, they looked excellent late in the season. Arch Manning had the best QBR in the nation from November onward, and Texas finished the season by rudely ending rival Texas A&M’s unbeaten run and thumping Michigan with relative ease in the Citrus Bowl.
After a strong finish last season, Arch Manning has some new firepower to work with in the Texas backfield. Alex Slitz/Getty ImagesIt will feel particularly disappointing if the Horns miss the dance again in 2026. Manning returns, and Sarkisian added some mega-headliners in the portal, bringing in a pair of tremendous running backs (Arizona State’s Raleek Brown and NC State’s Hollywood Smothers) to shore up an inconsistent run game and, in Auburn receiver Cam Coleman, grabbing maybe the highest-upside player in the portal to pair with Manning. Sark added three veteran offensive linemen as well, though I expected him to do a bit more there.I believe the coach was fighting the last war a bit with his portal additions — he needed skill corps and offensive line help last year and chased off a lot of guys (and potentially gave himself depth concerns) while adding this year’s stars — but the raw offensive talent is undeniable. Coleman suffered a pretty high drop rate last season (7.9%), but his highlight reel is absurd, and with juniors Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V returning (and other blue-chip youngsters such as Kaliq Lockett and Jermaine Bishop Jr. potentially developing), Texas will have matchup advantages on every pass play. Plus, Manning has had another offseason to attempt to shore up his lone remaining weakness (he was dreadfully inaccurate throwing on the run last season). Texas slipped from sixth in offensive SP+ in 2023 to 30th last season, but there will be no excuses for UT not having a top-10 or so offense in 2026.
Considering the Longhorns’ defense has ranked ahead of their offense for two straight seasons, I was a little surprised Sarkisian fired coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski (even though UT slipped from second to 18th in defensive SP+). I was even more surprised that Will Muschamp was named the replacement.
Granted, being Kirby Smart’s trusted defensive adviser in recent years certainly suggests he still knows a couple of things, but the last time Muschamp oversaw a top-10 defense (as either solo coordinator or head coach) was 2014. It’s a risk, though he inherits a defense with absolute stars in end Colin Simmons (12 sacks in 2025), safety Jelani McDonald and nickel Graceson Littleton, burgeoning standouts such as end Lance Jackson, linebacker Ty’Anthony Smith and corner Kade Phillips and exciting transfers in linebacker Rasheem Biles (Pitt) and corner Bo Mascoe (Rutgers).
At sixth in SP+, Texas is a projected underdog in only one game (Ohio State) but faces a load of relative tossups with a schedule featuring eight projected top-20 teams. I worry about depth and the risky coordinator hire, but the raw components are excellent.
Head coach: Mike Elko (third year, 19-7 overall)
2026 projection: ninth in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.6 in the SEC)
Four teams that finished in last year’s SP+ top 10 currently rank in the top 15 in returning production. Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia are all virtual locks to start 2026 in the top five or six in the preseason polls. Texas A&M is in the same club, however, and it doesn’t seem as if we’re talking nearly as much about the Aggies.
Granted, that’s probably Elko’s preference. Every coach loves to play the “No one believes in us” card, and Elko naturally carries a chip on his shoulder. But even with a rugged schedule featuring six projected top-20 opponents (four on the road), if you told me right now that at the end of the regular season the Aggies will have 10 or 11 wins and finish in the top five, it wouldn’t surprise me much. With quarterback Marcel Reed, running back Rueben Owens II, receivers Mario Craver and Ashton Bethel-Roman, defensive end T.J. Searcy, linebacker Daymion Sanford (who will likely miss part of the season with injury), corner Dezz Ricks and safeties Marcus Ratcliffe and Dalton Brooks, the Aggies return many of the brightest lights from last year’s 11-win team. Elko had to hit the portal pretty hard to ensure proper depth in the receiving corps and on both lines, and he’s heading into 2026 with two new coordinators (Holmon Wiggins on offense, Lyle Hemphill on defense). But the roster is exciting.
Really, I have only two concerns about the Aggies in 2026.
1. Reed’s glitches. Along with Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, Reed was one of only three SEC quarterbacks to throw for at least 3,000 yards and rush for at least 550 (not including sacks). But he finished just seventh in the conference in QBR.
TruMediaThe main culprit for his mediocre rating: mistakes. He threw 12 interceptions (third most in the SEC) and fumbled four times, and his catchable ball rate (75.3%) ranked 15th among 16 SEC passers. His sack-avoidance skills are spectacular, and when he was in a rhythm, slinging the ball from side to side and watching the seams for big plays, it was a sight to behold. But he also threw multiple interceptions four times in his last six games, and his stat line in A&M’s two losses — 9.3 yards per completion, zero TDs to four INTs — was ghastly.2. The lines needed a lot of portal help. A&M lost six of last year’s top seven linemen on offense and five of seven on defense. If Elko had to name a starting lineup today, it might feature four O-line transfers and two to three more on the D-line. This doesn’t have to be a bad thing — his four O-line newcomers combined for 42 SEC starts last season — but rebuilding a line through the portal is scary, as many otherwise high-level programs learned last season.While we’re at it, A&M’s haul of five D-line transfers combined for only 14.5 TFLs last season, and almost half of those came from Ryan Henderson (San Diego State) in the Group of 6. Henderson and Anto Saka (Northwestern) have pass-rushing potential — Saka’s 12.5% pressure rate was excellent, even if it turned into only three sacks — and the addition of tackling-machine linebacker Ray Coney (Tulsa) could be an immediate hit. But the Aggies definitely have something to prove in the trenches.
Head coach: Lane Kiffin (first year)
2026 projection: 10th in SP+, 8.5 average wins (5.8 in the SEC)
Try as he might, Kiffin isn’t going to be able to fend off high expectations this season. That’s just not the way things work when you (A) leave your CFP team for a hated conference rival before the CFP starts, (B) continue to generate headlines during your former team’s run (even not-so-subtly trying to lure some of your former players to your new school during stated run), (C) spend kajillions of dollars on a high-profile transfer class and (D) coach at LSU. Granted, the Tigers haven’t ranked higher than 10th in SP+ since their 2019 national title run, which puts them outside of the range of most reliable elites. But … come on. The expectations start from the first game.
Who won the offseason? We ranked themNail the transfer portal? Miss a big recruit? Find a top coordinator? All are part of our offseason evaluations.
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It’s not hard to feel optimistic about Kiffin’s first LSU team either. Simply combine the vision of a Blake Baker defense — at Missouri and LSU, Baker has fielded two top-15 units in the past three years — with a Kiffin offense, and there you go. For all his flaws and foibles, Kiffin tends to coax quality QB play out of whatever he has on hand, and he’ll likely have veteran Sam Leavitt (Arizona State) running the show in 2026. Leavitt was nearly as important to ASU’s late 2024 surge as running back Cam Skattebo, and he has sky-high confidence. He’ll take over a passing game that features four of the most explosive receivers from the portal in Jackson Harris (Hawai’i), Jayce Brown (Kansas State), Tre’ Brown III (Old Dominion) and Winston Watkins (Ole Miss). Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. could unlock high-upside tight end Trey’Dez Green too.
There’s a chance a thin offensive line slows things down: Only two of last year’s top seven return, and although Kiffin signed eight transfers, including former Colorado star Jordan Seaton, the depth still seems a little precarious. Backs Caden Durham and Harlem Berry haven’t yet lived up to their blue-chip hype either. But I would expect even a flawed Kiffin offense to rank in the top 25 or so in SP+.
The defense should be awfully fun, if rather mix-and-match between returnees and transfers. Ends Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss) and Jordan Ross (Tennessee), tackles Malik Blocton (Auburn) and Dominick McKinley, linebackers Whit Weeks and TJ Dottery (Ole Miss), corners PJ Woodland and DJ Pickett, and safeties Tamarcus Cooley, Ty Benefield (Boise State) and Dashawn Spears should form a high-level unit, and blue-chip freshmen such as end Lamar Brown, tackle Richard Anderson and corner Havon Finney Jr. should ensure strong depth. Baker has a well-earned reputation as an aggressive playcaller, and he should have the players to be aggressive. There have been plenty of “new offensive head coach doesn’t mesh well with strong, inherited defensive coordinator” stories through the years, but in a vacuum this figures to be another solid Baker unit.
Maybe the trickiest part about LSU’s schedule is that the Tigers will have to be dialed in right from the start. By Oct. 1, they will have hosted Clemson and Texas A&M and visited Ole Miss in what might be the most hostile game environment of the season. The home stretch is hard, too, but there’s potential for either a disastrous or particularly brilliant start. One way or the other, a Kiffin team will likely remain a headliner throughout the year.
Head coach: Kalen DeBoer (third year, 20-8 overall)
2026 projection: 11th in SP+, 8.0 average wins (5.4 in the SEC)
I haven’t really hidden how fascinated I am by Alabama this season. DeBoer has lost as many games in two seasons (eight) as Nick Saban lost in his last five. Bama ranked either first or second in SP+ for 13 straight years under Saban but finished 20th last season and looked like a playoff team for only a few weeks in late September and October.
Despite his lack of experience, Keelon Russell has the potential for big things at Alabama. Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn ImagesThe defense was very good, but the offense faded down the stretch and finished 36th in offensive SP+. Quarterback Ty Simpson shouldered far too much of the burden due to a dreadful run game, and his No. 1 target, Ryan Coleman-Williams, suffered the worst drop rate in the country (13.0%) for a high-volume receiver. Now Simpson, leading rusher Jam Miller, three of Simpson’s top four targets and six of the top seven linemen are gone. DeBoer signed six transfer linemen, but only two were FBS starters. Receiver Noah Rogers (NC State) was the only noteworthy transfer addition in the skill corps but will miss the start of the season with a spring injury. And it appears likely that DeBoer will hand the QB reins to a redshirt freshman.
This all sounds terribly foreboding. Perhaps an offensive collapse is on the way. Or perhaps quarterback Keelon Russell is just so awesome that nothing else matters. Russell was the No. 2 prospect in the 2025 class and was nearly perfect in a tiny sample last season. He’ll have to beat out junior Austin Mack, a longtime DeBoer backup, but he could very well have the upside it takes to carry this offense to strong numbers. That becomes doubly true if other youngsters — running back Ezavier Crowell (freshman), receivers Lotzeir Brooks (sophomore), Rico Scott (sophomore), Derek Meadows (sophomore) and Cederian Morgan (freshman), tight end Kaleb Edwards (sophomore), linemen Michael Carroll (sophomore), William Sanders (sophomore) and Jackson Lloyd (redshirt freshman) — are able to defy inexperience and play to their potential. This is still Bama, and the upside remains massive. But experience is a massive black hole.
The defense should be excellent again, at least if the Tide’s transfer linemen play their part. Coordinator Kane Wommack should have one of the best and most experienced secondaries in the country with the return of corners Zabien Brown and Dijon Lee Jr., nickel Red Morgan and safeties Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb. On the edge, junior Yhonzae Pierre is a potential All-American. Inside linebacker is a bit of a mystery — either transfer Caleb Woodson (Virginia Tech) or a youngster such as QB Reese will need to step in effectively — but the concern is up front, where four of last year’s top five are gone. Backup tackle Edric Hill returns, and a sophomore such as London Simmons or Jeremiah Beaman could be ready for a starring role, but among Devan Thompkins (USC), Kedrick Bingley-Jones (Mississippi State) and Terrance Green (Oregon), at least two need to become viable contributors at tackle.
The Tide won’t play a projected top-20 team until Week 6, so Russell might have a chance to generate confidence and momentum before a rugged home stretch kicks in. Then again, Bama lost to Florida State to start last season, and plenty of early opponents — Kentucky (Week 2), FSU (Week 3), South Carolina (Week 4) — will be taking home run swings. It’s not hard to see his season going terribly awry, but if Russell is great, Bama might be too.
Head coach: Brent Venables (fifth year, 32-20 overall)
2026 projection: 12th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (5.0 in the SEC)
Oklahoma zoomed right from up-and-coming to overrated last season. Venables’ Sooners were terribly mediocre on offense and basically reached the CFP because of defensive touchdowns: a 71-yard fumble return that made the difference in a 6-point win over Tennessee and an 87-yard pick-six that made the difference in a two-point win over Alabama. Otherwise, they rarely looked the part.
Pointing this out, however, made me feel bad because it was impressive that the Sooners were in the chase at all. Venables was just 22-17 in his first three seasons, and OU had face-planted in its SEC debut, going just 6-7. But the defense jumped from very good to elite last fall, and while the offense was still an albatross, it still improved from 75th to 51st in offensive SP+ despite a poor run game and an injury to quarterback John Mateer. OU had a good team and a good year, in other words.
With three projected top-15 opponents in the first five games, then a run of four straight top-20 opponents to finish, the Sooners will have to improve quite a bit to reenter the CFP chase in 2026. But it wouldn’t be totally surprising. After ranking fourth in defensive SP+ last season, they return 11 of the 20 defenders who saw 200-plus snaps, including stars such as end Taylor Wein, tackle David Stone, linebackers Kip Lewis and Owen Heinecke (thanks to everyone’s favorite offseason word, “injunction”), corners Courtland Guillory and Eli Bowen, and safety Peyton Bowen. Four of last year’s top six linemen are gone, but strong recent recruiting means Venables has a pool of 10-12 blue-chip linemen from which to pull. And if the line holds up, the defense could easily be in the top 10 again.
Ben Arbuckle’s offense remains a work in progress. Simply having Mateer healthy for a full season would help, though with his physical style, that might never happen. Regardless, the run game was the main problem last season, ranking 124th nationally in yards per rush (sacks excluded). Venables added running back Lloyd Avant (Colorado State) and five transfer linemen, including Arkansas starter E’Marion Harris, but improvement might come from simple development: Both of last year’s leading RBs and four key returning O-linemen were either freshmen or sophomores. None of them really impressed, but they survived, and because nearly all of them were blue-chippers, they could still improve.
Venables completely revamped the receiving corps to help leading returnee Isaiah Sategna III. Sategna’s catches were vital to late-season wins over Missouri and LSU, and now Mateer can potentially spread the ball around to Trell Harris (Virginia), Parker Livingstone (Texas) and tight ends Hayden Hansen (Florida) and Rocky Beers (Colorado State). It’s not hard to see the Sooners scoring a lot more points this year.
Head coach: Pete Golding (first full year, 2-1 overall)
2026 projection: 15th in SP+, 7.2 average wins (4.6 in the SEC)
Golding has proved about as much as you possibly can in three games. He navigated Ole Miss to within a single play of the national title game despite all the chaos Lane Kiffin’s departure created. And despite Kiffin almost openly courting a lot of Golding’s stars, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, running back Kewan Lacy, defensive tackle Will Echoles and linebacker Suntarine Perkins — four of Ole Miss’ biggest names — have returned to Oxford. (Granted, any protagonist vibes Golding had built when pitted against Kiffin probably went out the window when Clemson’s Dabo Swinney accused him of tampering, but that’s neither here nor there.)
After a brilliant 2024 performance, Golding’s defense slipped to 20th in defensive SP+. He clearly felt the need to rebuild an average pass rush, bringing in four defensive ends, including Nevada star Jonathan Maldonado (eight TFLs, five sacks). Run defense was an issue at times, but the return of Echoles and Kam Franklin and the addition of 355-pound Michai Boireau (Florida) and 325-pound Jehiem Oatis (Colorado/Alabama) should make the line pretty immovable. Keaton Thomas (Baylor) and Luke Ferrelli (Cal) join Perkins at linebacker, but with only three of nine DBs returning, transfer safeties Joenel Aguero (Georgia) and Edwin Joseph (Florida State) will need to shine immediately alongside returning corner Antonio Kite.
Golding hired East Carolina’s John David Baker as offensive coordinator, which made sense with Baker’s up-tempo nature and recent success. Chambliss and Lacy were breakout stories in 2025, starting the year unheralded and ending it among the nation’s top 20 players. After a 300-carry season, it will probably benefit Lacy if newcomers Makhi Frazier (Michigan State) and Joshua Dye (1,676 yards at Southern Utah) are viable enough to share some of the load. It also won’t hurt if the Ole Miss line, which allowed more negative run plays than you’d expect, improves; three starters return, but transfer tackles Carius Curne (LSU) and Tommy Kinsler IV (Miami) could be key to that improvement.
All ifs aside, Chambliss is a hell of a security blanket. Among the nation’s better running quarterbacks, he was the best at escaping pressure and making things happen; his escape against Georgia was legendary.
Local court injunctions are something we’re going to need far less of in college football, and Chambliss needed one to see an extra season of eligibility. But he’ll remain one of college football’s best entertainers, at least as long as veteran Deuce Alexander and a selection of transfers — Johntay Cook (Syracuse/Texas), Horatio Fields (Auburn/Wake Forest), Darrell Gill Jr. (Syracuse), Isaiah Spencer (Virginia Tech) and Cameron Miller (Kentucky) — give him what he needs. We’ll see whether this team has a top-five ceiling or something lower, but it almost certainly has a top-20 floor.
Head coach: Josh Heupel (sixth year, 45-20 overall)
2026 projection: 16th in SP+, 7.7 average wins (5.0 in the SEC)
Tennessee had basically played to projections through 11 games last year, but the season still seemed awfully disappointing. Part of that was because the Vols were basically out of the playoff hunt a year after making the CFP. But another part was that the offense, a huge question mark heading into the season, was far more successful than expected. And the defense, sixth nationally per SP+ in 2024, face-planted. A season-ending defeat against Vanderbilt and a bowl loss to Illinois shifted 2025 from frustrating to disappointing, and Heupel entered the offseason needing a new starting quarterback and defensive coordinator.
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For the latter, Heupel grabbed Jim Knowles, the author of huge defensive surges at Duke and Oklahoma State and a pair of nearly perfect defenses at Ohio State. His defenses are aggressive and entertaining, but he takes a minute to figure things out. His first seasons at both OSUs were glitchy and full of big plays, and in his only year at Penn State, the Nittany Lions fell from fourth to 23rd in defensive SP+. It usually takes Knowles a year to get the chess pieces where he wants them.
There are lots of new chess pieces. Only eight of 20 defenders with 200-plus snaps return, and Heupel signed 12 defensive transfers and an enormous freshman class. The Vols are loaded at linebacker with the return of Arion Carter and Jeremiah Telander and the addition of Amare Campbell (Penn State), but the front and back of the defense got hit hard by attrition. Up front, transfer ends Chaz Coleman (Penn State) and Jordan Norman (Tulane) and tackle Xavier Gilliam (Penn State) will need to become hits. And the sooner young former blue-chippers such as end Mariyon Dye and tackle Isaiah Campbell can play to their potential, the better.
In the back, returning corner Ty Redmond and safety Edrees Farooq will team up with a load of transfers, including corner Kayin Lee (Auburn), safety TJ Metcalf (Michigan) and safety Qua Moss (Kansas State). Redmond was dynamite as a freshman, and Moss is smaller but disruptive.
There are two ways to look at the offense. On one hand, leading rusher DeSean Bishop, 800-yard receivers Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews, and five of six primary linemen return from an attack that ranked seventh in offensive SP+ last season. That’s undeniably good. But after a 3,500-yard passing season from Joey Aguilar, the reins will now be passed to either redshirt freshman George MacIntyre or top-15 freshman Faizon Brandon. Both have massive potential — and they’ve combined for nine career passes. How long will they need to get up to speed? That’s a critical question because Texas visits in Week 4, and the Vols have eight projected relative toss-ups (games within about 7.5 points). A rebound year will require better defense and strong QB play in close games.
Head coach: Eli Drinkwitz (seventh year, 46-29 overall)
2026 projection: 19th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (4.6 in the SEC)
Over the past three seasons, only three SEC teams have won more games than Missouri’s 29. The Tigers have averaged an SP+ ranking of 16.7 in that span — better than LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn or Florida. Drinkwitz has produced two top-15 defenses in that span (per SP+), plus a top-15 offense in 2023.
This is a top-20 program, in other words, which is why it’s projected 19th heading into 2026. But three huge questions loom. The answers will determine their 2026 upside.
1. How is Ahmad Hardy? Mizzou’s All-American running back, a yards-after-contact force who rushed for 1,649 yards last year, was shot in the upper leg leaving a concert in May, and the timetable for his return remains unknown. Mizzou has one of the best backup RBs in the country in Jamal Roberts and added an FCS star in Xai’Shaun Edwards, who rushed for 1,019 yards at Houston Christian. But whatever the Tigers’ ceiling is, they probably won’t reach it without Hardy.
2. How many lessons does Austin Simmons still need to learn? Few quarterbacks throw a sexier ball than the lefty who began last season as Ole Miss’ starter. He attempted just 84 dropbacks before getting Wally Pipp’d by Trinidad Chambliss, but among his 45 completions were 15 gains of 20-plus yards. But he also threw five interceptions and took five sacks, and new coordinator Chip Lindsey’s No. 1 mission is figuring out how to rein in the mistakes while maintaining the big-play capabilities. Simmons’ receiving corps — sophomore Donovan Olugbode, veteran tight end Brett Norfleet, transfers Cayden Lee (Ole Miss) and Caleb Goodie (Cincinnati) — should be capable of reeling in big passes, but the threat of disasters remains.
3. How is the pass rush? Mizzou ranked seventh nationally in yards allowed per dropback and 13th in sack rate last season. The secondary lost seven of last year’s top eight but added high-level transfers in corners Chris Graves Jr. (Ole Miss), Jahlil Florence (Oregon) and Sione Laulea (Oregon), and safety Kensley Louidor-Faustin (Auburn). It should hold up as long as quarterbacks are harassed. But all three of last year’s sacks leaders are gone, and some combination of seniors Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen, youngster Daeden Hopkins, and transfers Jaden Jones (Florida State), Kamauryn Morgan (Baylor) and Malik Bryant (Miami) needs to clear a pretty high bar.
At 19th, Mizzou is a solid projected favorite in five games and a solid underdog in one, with six relative toss-ups in the middle. The offensive line is super experienced, and defensive tackles Marquis Gracial and Jalen Marshall and linebackers Nicholas Rodriguez and Robert Woodyard Jr. (Auburn) should give the defense a strong spine. But the three answers above will decide whether this is a borderline top-15 team or whether the Tigers will have a retooling season.
Head coach: Jon Sumrall (first year)
2026 projection: 20th in SP+, 7.0 average wins (4.5 in the SEC)
Every year, SP+ puts out a projection that is higher than I would prefer for either Florida or Auburn, or both. The reasons are easy enough to suss out: They have talent (recruiting rankings are a piece of the preseason projections, though far less of one now), and they inevitably sign productive transfers. Plus, coaching changes — which both schools undertook this offseason — now bake in a natural progression-to-the-mean effect.
Over the past five seasons, Florida is a combined 29-34 with an average SP+ ranking of 36.6, but not only changing coaches but switching to Sumrall, one of the best recent coaches in the sport, helps a bunch. And he indeed brought in a productive transfer class.
Keeping running back Jadan Baugh in Gainesville was key for first-year Florida coach Jon Sumrall. AP Photo/John RaouxSumrall’s first roster doesn’t feature tons of guaranteed stars, but it has lots of components. And that’s something Sumrall can generally work with. He inherited a Troy team that had gone 10-13 over the previous two years and went 23-5, then he inherited a good Tulane team and won 20 games in two years with an American title and playoff berth.There’s standout talent, to be sure. Holding on to running back Jadan Baugh (1,170 yards, eight TDs) was good, and adding veteran transfer Eric Singleton Jr. (Auburn) to a receiving corps featuring youngsters such as Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson and TJ Abrams is exciting. If offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner can make something of Aaron Philo, his former backup QB at Georgia Tech, then offensive improvement is likely (and not just because last year’s offense lowered the bar so much).
The Gators’ defense was better than the offense the past couple of years, and coordinator Brad White inherits a unit that rushed the passer well on passing downs and got sturdy tackling and big-play prevention from returning linebackers Myles Graham and Jaden Robinson and safety Bryce Thornton. Edge rusher Jayden Woods was one of the league’s better freshmen, and there is a lot of depth in the “really big defensive tackles” department. (That was definitely a strength of predecessor Billy Napier.) If Woods, tackle Brendan Bett and corners Cormani McClain, J’Vari Flowers and Dijon Johnson (injured in 2024) continue to develop, this defense should be very good quickly. That’s doubly true if it gets solid contributions from transfers such as tackle Emmanuel Oyebadejo (Jacksonville State), nickel DJ Coleman (Baylor) and corner Jordy Lowery (East Carolina).
Like Auburn, the Gators always play rough schedules against teams that exploit whatever weakness they might have. This season’s isn’t actually as tough as normal — yes, they play Texas and Georgia back to back, but they play only one other projected top-15 team, and nonconference rival Florida State isn’t in amazing form. So if the defense clicks like I expect, a good season is on the table. And if Philo also thrives, there is at worst top-20 potential.
Head coach: Shane Beamer (sixth year, 33-30 overall)
2026 projection: 25th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.2 in the SEC)
Beamer’s five seasons at South Carolina have been, frankly, exhausting. He won seven of nine games at one point, then lost seven of nine. He has had stretches of 5-1 and 6-0 and stretches of 1-3 and 1-6. In the past two even-numbered years (2022 and 2024) he has gone 17-9. Last two odd-numbered years? 9-15.
It’s possible that “It’s an even-numbered year, therefore South Carolina will be good” is all the analysis you need. But let’s pretend for a moment that it’s more complex than that.
Beamer has once again brought in loads of new faces. Kendal Briles moved over from TCU to become his fourth offensive coordinator in five years, and while quarterback LaNorris Sellers and leading receiver Nyck Harbor return to once again serve as the most intimidating pitch-and-catch combination in the country, they’re two of only six offensive returnees who saw even 200 snaps last season. (The others: tight end Brady Hunt, sophomore receiver Donovan Murph, left tackle Josiah Thompson and left guard Shed Sarratt Jr.).
Neither the offensive line nor the running back group was good enough last season, and Beamer brought in eight new linemen — including five FBS starters and six seniors — and three new backs, including former Texas blue-chipper Christian Clark. Beamer got four transfer receivers and a tight end, too, though both of the headliners, Nitro Tuggle (Purdue) and DJ Black (UCF), had high drop rates last season, just as Harbor did. I don’t love the pass personnel, but if the run game and pass protection improve, it will be a net win for Sellers, who runs himself into trouble far too often but didn’t get nearly enough help in 2025.
The defense regressed last year too, but not nearly as much as the offense. Sixth-year coordinator Clayton White’s Gamecocks created quite a few negative run plays but didn’t have the pass rush (97th in sack rate) to get aggressive in the secondary.
End Dylan Stewart returns: Along with Sellers and Harbor, he’s in the “ridiculously talented but frustratingly inconsistent” club, and he was far better at defending the run than rushing the passer last season. He’ll have lots of new faces around him with the addition of two ends (led by Tennessee’s Caleb Herring) and three tackles, including Tomiwa Durojaiye (Illinois) and former mega-blue-chipper Kelby Collins (Alabama). Linebacker Justin Okoronkwo and safety Peyton Williams should give the Gamecocks strength in the middle of the field, and corner Vicari Swain is electric, both as a cornerback (9.2 QBR allowed) and as a punt returner (three TDs). South Carolina’s physical talent will jump off the page this season, but it did last year, too, and the Gamecocks still went 4-8. Beamer has pulled off a million turnarounds in a short time period, but he faces the burden of proof in 2026.
Head coach: Alex Golesh (first year)
2026 projection: 26th in SP+, 6.5 average wins (3.8 in the SEC)
SP+ is indeed always trying to convince me that Auburn is on the brink of a breakthrough. The Tigers take on ridiculous schedule strength in a given season, but they always have plenty of blue-chippers, and history tells us it never takes long for them to capture lightning in a bottle and surge.
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If you want to be optimistic for an immediate Auburn breakthrough under Golesh, you have plenty of evidence. He immediately turned South Florida around in his first head coaching gig, improving the Bulls from 114th to 85th in SP+ in his debut season and bringing them up to a stellar 30th in his third. Offense was the driving force in USF’s improvement, and he brought 11 former Bulls with him to the Plains in an attempt to assure a swift transition this time around. Meanwhile, he’s trying to keep a good thing going by keeping incumbent defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin in place after Durkin fielded back-to-back top-20 defenses (per SP+).
If quarterback Byrum Brown is as good as I think he is — and I think he’s really, really good — then the Auburn offense should play at a top-40 level for the first time since 2019. Brown is a dynamite dual threat who should get plenty of help from backs Jeremiah Cobb, Bryson Washington (Baylor) and Nykahi Davenport (USF) and a quartet of former USF receivers: Keshaun Singleton, Christian Neptune, Jeremiah Koger and Chas Nimrod. As with plenty of other transfer-heavy attacks, I’m not sure if the line will hold up: Last year’s top five linemen are gone, and Golesh will be asking a majority of nine transfers to come through and play as a cohesive unit. But unless the line craters, the rest of Golesh’s explosive and up-tempo attack should produce solid improvement.
The defense is taking on quite a bit of transition even with the retention of Durkin. Only two of the 10 defenders with 300-plus snaps return, and Durkin will be heavily relying on sophomore or junior returnees — end Jared Smith, linebackers Xavier Atkins and Elijah Melendez, safeties Kaleb Harris, Sylvester Smith, Eric Winters and Antwon Fegans — and transfers. Among end Da’Shawn Womack (Ole Miss), tackles Cody Sigler (Arkansas State) and Saint Farrior (Appalachian State), linebacker Michael Matthews-Canty (Hampton), corners Andre Jordan Jr. (UCLA) and Shamar Arnoux (Florida State) and safety Fred Gaskin (USF), a lot of newcomers will need to play huge roles.
At 26th, Auburn is projected to play seven one-score games in 2026, and if that stirs bad memories for Auburn fans, I understand. The Tigers are on a run of 12 losses in their last 13 one-score finishes, which is both bad and unfathomably unfortunate. If Golesh changes nothing else but AU’s close-game fortune, he’ll create quite a bit more goodwill than predecessor Hugh Freeze did.
Head coach: Clark Lea (sixth year, 26-36 overall)
2026 projection: 31st in SP+, 6.5 average wins (3.9 in the SEC)
Two years ago, Vandy started the year projected 89th in SP+, and that almost seemed generous considering the Commodores had gone 12-45 with an average SP+ ranking of 99.6 over the previous five seasons. Lea had signed quarterback Diego Pavia, among others, in an attempt to liven up the program, but even though I loved Pavia at New Mexico State, I wasn’t incredibly optimistic.
Two years later, Vandy is damn near projected as a top-30 team despite likely starting a freshman quarterback this fall. Lea’s 2024 moves — signing Tim Beck as offensive coordinator, bringing on Beck’s old NMSU boss Jerry Kill as chief consultant, signing Pavia and getting a little more active overall in the portal — worked. Big time.
2023: 2-10, 110th in SP+ (80th offense, 124th defense, 71st special teams)
2024: 7-6, 52nd in SP+ (61st offense, 59th defense, third special teams)
2025: 10-3, 11th in SP+ (fifth offense, 39th defense, seventh special teams)
Vandy went from 2-10 and listless to within about three points of a CFP berth. And although Pavia was an enormous reason for that and has moved on, Lea is likely replacing him with five-star Jared Curtis, the No. 12 prospect in the 2026 recruiting class.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Commodores failed to live up to their borderline top-30 projection as, by SEC standards, they’ve been hit pretty hard by attrition: Pavia, three of his top four receivers, four starting O-linemen and eight of 11 regulars in the defensive front six are gone. But there are reasons for giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Lea is on an excellent run of portal success and added explosive new pass targets in Ja’Cory Thomas (Old Dominion), Cole Adams (Alabama) and tight end Jayvontay Conner (East Carolina). He also brought in three transfer linemen, including a veteran center (Pitt’s Lyndon Cooper) and a North Dakota State product (tackle Beau Johnson). Running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young combined to average 6.5 yards per carry with 17 TDs; this offense was incredibly explosive and could remain so, even if efficiency is negatively affected by starting a true freshman at QB.
The run defense could be a concern. It was good last year, but tackles Glenn Seabrooks III and Jaylon Stone and linebacker Bryan Longwell are the only returnees. Tackle Yilanan Ouattara, a key contributor in 2024, returns, but transfers — edge rushers Edwin Kolenge (Boston College), Brian Allen (Iowa) and CJ Jackson (LSU), tackles Talan Carter (Jacksonville State) and Michael Diatta (Oklahoma State) — will need to come through. The secondary should be solid with incoming safety Ricardo Jones (Clemson) pairing with safety CJ Heard, corners Martel Hight and Jordan Matthews and others.
Head coach: Ryan Silverfield (first year)
2026 projection: 46th in SP+, 4.3 average wins (2.2 in the SEC)
Life can’t be boring as an Arkansas fan. In the past eight seasons, the Razorbacks had three winning records (including nine wins in 2021) and three 2-10 years.
With Silverfield, the school has to be hoping for stability. In six seasons at Memphis, he never suffered a losing season. Granted, his success was one-sided — over his last four seasons, Memphis averaged a 15.8 ranking in offensive SP+ but 89.3 on defense — and Arkansas’ defense was so awful last season that the Razorbacks went 2-10 with a top-20 offense. So Silverfield might not immediately plug the holes predecessor Sam Pittman couldn’t.
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Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts inherits a blank slate and low expectations. Of the 16 players who saw at least 200 snaps on last year’s awful defense, only three return, and only one was a standout: lineman Quincy Rhodes Jr. (17.5 TFLs). He’s a good building block, but Silverfield signed more than 20 defensive transfers (plus four juco players), and the grab bag effect makes it awfully difficult to set expectations. He added quite a few disruptors in the secondary — corners Jahiem Johnson (Tulane), La’khi Roland (Maryland) and Kyeaure Magloire (West Georgia), safeties John Howse IV (Middle Tennessee) and Christian Harrison (Cincinnati) — and a lot of 300-pounders up front. But I’m not sure the line will produce enough disruption, and if transfers Khmori House (North Carolina) and Ja’Quavion Smith (Howard) aren’t immediately awesome, I’m concerned about the linebackers too. But the bar is low, at least.
The offense has plenty of upside and no surefire quarterback. The battle between sophomore holdover KJ Jackson and blue-chip redshirt freshman AJ Hill (Memphis) will continue into the fall. Both boast loads of athletic upside, and neither has proved much. But that is pretty much true of every offensive position. Running back Sutton Smith (Memphis) and receiver Chris Marshall (Boise State) are experienced and explosive, but otherwise most of Silverfield’s incoming transfers are either less proven Memphis imports or unproven former blue-chippers. And while two starting linemen return, the seven-man O-line transfer haul must produce two to three quality starters.
Silverfield was hard to judge at Memphis, as he always built athletic and exciting teams that managed to lose as favorites more than you would prefer. On the bright side, the Razorbacks won’t be favored much in 2026!
Head coach: Jeff Lebby (third year, 7-18 overall)
2026 projection: 52nd in SP+, 4.5 average wins (2.2 in the SEC)
In 2025, Mississippi State found a little bit of traction. Granted, a 4-0 start shifted to a 1-8 finish, and the defense never came around, but Lebby’s up-tempo offense jumped from 82nd to 39th in offensive SP+, and the Bulldogs came achingly close to beating Tennessee, Florida and Texas.
This season, a solid offense must replace most of its difference-makers, but the defense features solid experience and a new/old coordinator: Zach Arnett, who was Mike Leach’s DC and, briefly, successor. Four of the Bulldogs’ top five D-linemen return, including senior Jaray Bledsoe, a dynamite playmaker for 315 pounds. The pass rush was an extreme liability, so Lebby brought in three pass rushers, but the big moves were in the secondary. Six of last year’s top eight are gone, but the best one, lanky and active cornerback Kelley Jones, returns, and Lebby added six transfers, including five who started FBS games. In general, Lebby went more for less proven former blue-chippers instead of lower-level stars; we’ll see if he got the right ones.
On offense, sophomore QB Kamario Taylor will try to turn a fun small-sample stat line into something bigger. In two starts and 106 dropbacks, he produced an 82.3 QBR, which would have ranked fourth in the league if it qualified. He hunted big plays and ran the ball well but took loads of sacks. Lebby brought in a pair of transfers as backup options — the more pocket-based AJ Swann (Appalachian State) and fallen blue-chipper Jaden Rashada (Sacramento State) — but Taylor probably still has quite a few mistakes to make before he approaches his ceiling, and his line might speed those mistakes up a bit. Six of last year’s top seven are gone, and Lebby signed eight transfers. And like Taylor, a majority of them are young. The skill corps is experienced at least, returning leading rusher Fluff Bothwell and senior receivers Anthony Evans III and Ayden Williams and adding another senior in Marquis Johnson (Missouri).
Starting in Week 3, MSU plays six consecutive projected top-25 opponents. I’m betting it takes down at least one of them, but the roster likely still has too many holes for any massive improvement in the wins department. But Taylor is only a sophomore, so we’ll see about 2027.
Head coach: Will Stein (first year)
2026 projection: 54th in SP+, 4.2 average wins (2.0 in the SEC)
Stein looked like the most exhausted person on the planet in January, as he was simultaneously preparing Oregon for the CFP semifinals as offensive coordinator and putting together a delightful transfer class as Kentucky’s sparkly new head coach. I can’t imagine how long he slept when he had the chance, but that’s certainly one way to make holding only a demanding SEC head coaching job seem pretty manageable.
Stein is tasked with arresting a two-year slide: Kentucky fell from 22nd in SP+ in 2023 to 45th in 2024 and 67th in 2025. The defense went from elite to decent, and the offense vanished. But Stein’s transfer class could produce 12 to 15 starters right away.
It starts with Kenny Minchey on offense. The former Notre Dame backup QB was another one of those “great in a small sample” guys last season, throwing accurately (and mostly short) and flashing exciting rushing ability. A backfield with Minchey and big running backs CJ Baxter (Texas) and Jovantae Barnes (Oklahoma) will be exciting and physically impressive. Also physically impressive: six transfer linemen who average 6-5 and 323 pounds and combined for 49 FBS starts last season. That includes three players who earned at least third-team all-conference honors — tackle Lance Heard (Tennessee), guard Tegra Tshabola (Ohio State) and tackle Mark Robinson (UTEP). I’m not sure Minchey has what he needs in the receiving corps; there are no real standouts, though tight end Willie Rodriguez is solid and transfer Shane Carr (Southern Utah) could be explosive. But it might be hell knocking UK off schedule.
The defense had less rebuilding to do, both because it didn’t collapse like the offense did and because 10 of the 19 players who started games last season return. That includes high-level performers in defensive end Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, safety Ty Bryant, and corners Terhyon Nichols and Grant Grayton. But Stein still signed 13 defensive transfers — a mix of sturdy veterans such as edge rusher Antonio O’Berry (Gardner-Webb), tackle Jamarrion Harkless (Purdue) and safety Jordan Castell (Florida) and young former blue-chippers including linebackers Elijah Barnes (Texas) and Tavion Wallace (Arkansas).
A top-10 schedule will keep Kentucky’s win total tamped down, but I like the potential, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Wildcats exceed projections.
Twenty years ago, a title streak began. The SEC has always been pretty high on itself, but between 1981 and 2005, only four teams from the conference won the national title (1992 Alabama, 1996 Florida, 1998 Tennessee and 2003 LSU). But when Florida sneaked past Michigan into the BCS championship game and then blew Ohio State’s doors off, it began a ridiculous run.
Ohio State’s Ted Ginn Jr. took the opening kickoff 93 yards for a touchdown, but Florida responded with a ridiculous 34-7 run to close out the first half. Gator defenders sacked Heisman winner Troy Smith five times (it seemed like 15) and allowed a shocking 82 total yards, and Urban Meyer’s Gators cruised 41-14 to claim the 2006 national title. Les Miles’ LSU team won it in 2007, then Florida won again in 2008. Nick Saban’s Alabama won six of 12 titles between 2009 and 2020, while all-time runs from Auburn’s Cam Newton in 2010 and Joe Burrow’s LSU in 2019 earned titles as well. And then Georgia broke through in 2021 and repeated in 2022. In all, SEC teams won 12 of 17 titles from 2006 to 2022. They’ll probably win another one soon; I’m just not sure it’ll be in 2026.
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