And on Thursday night in the Hall of Fame game, we saw glimpses of what that could look like in the NFL. He’s currently third on the depth chart behind Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew, but in a perfect world, Beck would be the 2026 version of Tyler Shough: a Day 2 pick who played a ton of college ball, can run an offense efficiently, and can step into the starting job as a rookie and more than hold his own. 

Beck has never been the quarterback who overwhelms you with highlight throws. He wins by staying on schedule. At Georgia, his 38.6% first-down rate ranked in the 95th percentile among draft-eligible quarterbacks from 2015-26, and he got the ball out quicker than anyone in this rookie class. That’s also why Arizona made so much sense as a landing spot: Mike LaFleur’s offense asks quarterbacks to process quickly, distribute accurately and let the system work for them — exactly how Beck played his best football in college. And Beck certainly passed every test you could throw at a rookie making his first-ever start, even if it was the Hall of Fame game.

My co-host on the “With the First Pick” podcast, former Titans GM Ran Carthon, has seen a lot in his nearly two decades in NFL front offices; he drafted Will Levis, was in San Francisco with Trey Lance and Brock Purdy, and St. Louis with Jared Goff. Earlier this week, I asked him what he wanted to see from Beck in his preseason debut:

“First, I want to see how efficiently he operates. Can he get in and out of the huddle, get everyone lined up and handle the motions, shifts and adjustments without things speeding up on him? …

“Then I want to see how he handles the bright lights. I know it’s just the Hall of Fame Game, but this is his first professional football action. Is it going to be too much for him? …

“My advice would be simple: it’s just football. Don’t make it any more than that. You don’t have to be the hero. Be 1-of-11. Play point guard, get the ball to the guys who can make plays, and just play football.”

Beck not only took Ran’s advice – he ran with it. And yes, I’ll say it again: IT’S JUST ONE PRESEASON GAME. But you’d much rather see it unfold like this than see him throw an interception, take a couple of sacks, and look indecisive before and after the snap. Instead, Beck, whose big-time-throw rate hovered around 3% in college (by comparison, Justin Herbert’s big-time-throw rate was 9.2% in 2017 at Oregon), was slinging it early on Thursday night:

And this:

There’s more:

By the time it was over, Beck finished 15 of 19 for 188 yards, a touchdown and no turnovers. And, sure, the rookie gave Cardinals fans plenty to be happy about, at least for one night. So what does it mean beyond one encouraging August performance? If history is any guide, not a whole helluva lot. 

Beck’s debut belongs in the same bucket as every other rookie quarterback making his first preseason appearance: it’s worth watching, worth evaluating and worth filing away – but it’s far from definitive. The last decade is littered with quarterbacks who looked like future stars in August before stumbling once the games counted, and just as many who struggled in their first taste of NFL action before developing into franchise quarterbacks.

Here are some of the best reminders – both good and bad – why one preseason game never tells the whole story.

Five rookie QBs who impressed in preseason debuts

1. Dak Prescott — Cowboys (2016, 4th round)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 10 of 12, 139 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Prescott looked completely comfortable running the offense in his preseason debut, throwing two touchdowns, and a decade later, he’s still entrenched as the starter in Dallas.

Last NFL season (2025, Cowboys)

• 7 starts, 4,552 pass yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs, 67.3% completion
• Dallas finished 7-9-1 and missed the playoffs for the second straight season

2. Baker Mayfield — Browns (2018, No. 1 overall pick)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 11 of 20, 212 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Mayfield’s debut accelerated calls for him to replace veteran Tyrod Taylor, who was also in his first year in Cleveland.

Last NFL season (2025, Bucs)

• 17 starts, 3,693 pass yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs, 63.2% completion
• Tampa Bay finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs. The Buccaneers were part of a three-way tie with Carolina and Atlanta, but Carolina won the NFC South tiebreaker and advanced to the postseason.

3. Justin Fields — Bears (2021, 11th overall pick)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 14 of 20, 142 yards, 1 TD; 5 carries, 33 yards, 1 TD

After a slow start, Fields got hot in the second half with big-time throws and highlight-reel runs. The debut immediately fueled public pressure for Chicago to move him ahead of veteran Andy Dalton. Fields made his first start in Week 3 of the regular season.

Last NFL season (2025, Jets)

• 9 starts, 1,259 pass yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 62.7% completion
• Fields went 2-7 as the starter, and New York finished 3-14 and missed the playoffs.

4. Kenny Pickett — Steelers (2022, 20th overall pick)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 13 of 15, 95 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Pickett capped his debut with a game-winning touchdown drive and completed all but two of his throws. He made his first NFL regular-season start in Week 5, replacing Mitchell Trubisky.

Last NFL season (2025, Raiders)

• 2 starts, 188 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 62.2% completion
• Pickett appeared in six games and went 1-1 as the starter. Las Vegas finished 3-14 and missed the playoffs

5. Dorian Thompson-Robinson — Browns (2023, 5th round)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 8 of 11, 82 yards, 1 TD; 5 carries, 36 yards

Thompson-Robinson was the clear star of the 2023 Hall of Fame Game, flashing accuracy, mobility and composure that, admittedly, had me believing the Browns had unearthed a late-round gem. He started just 5 games in two seasons for the Browns before being traded to the Eagles (incidentally, this was the trade that sent Pickett from Philly to Cleveland). DTR now plays in the UFL.

Last NFL season (2024, Browns)

• 2 starts, 440 pass yards, 0 TDs, 6 INTs, 53.0% completion
• Thompson-Robinson appeared in seven games. Cleveland finished 3-14 and missed the playoffs.

Five rookie QB debuts that left more questions than answers

1. Jared Goff — Rams (2016, No. 1 overall)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 4 of 9, 38 yards, 1 INT

The No. 1 overall pick looked uncomfortable in his preseason debut, and Goff eventually opened the regular season on the bench before developing into one of the best QBs in the league after he was traded from the Rams to the Lions.

Last NFL season (2025, Lions)

• 17 starts, 4,564 pass yards, 34 TDs, 8 INTs, 68.0% completion
• Detroit finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs, placing fourth in the NFC North.

2. Josh Rosen — Cardinals (2018, 10th overall)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 6 of 13, 41 yards

Rosen’s preseason debut mirrored his NFL career. He made his first start in Week 4 of his rookie season, but by 2019, he had been traded to Miami. He would play for five more teams over the next three seasons and has been out of the league since 2022.

Last NFL season (2021, Falcons)

• 0 starts, 19 pass yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 18.2% completion
• Rosen appeared in four games as a reserve. Atlanta finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs. Rosen has not appeared in an NFL regular-season game since 2021.

3. Matt Corral — Panthers (2022, 3rd round)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 1 of 9, 11 yards

Corral’s debut was one of the roughest by any rookie quarterback in recent memory. Once considered the top QB in a weak 2022 class, he never played a regular-season snap in the NFL.

No NFL regular-season appearances

• 0 starts, 0 pass yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, no completion percentage
• Corral has never appeared in an NFL regular-season game. His rookie season ended because of a preseason foot injury, and none of his subsequent NFL roster or practice-squad stops resulted in a regular-season appearance. 

4. C.J. Stroud — Texans (2023, No. 2 overall)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 2 of 4, 13 yards, 1 INT

Stroud’s first outing was … rough. So rough, in fact, that I remember Rick Spielman and I talking about it on the podcast at the time. It also reminded me of what C.J. told Rick a few months before at the combine, which is something we should all keep in mind during the preseason:

Obviously, Stroud went on to have a lights-out rookie campaign and while he hasn’t yet played up to that level the last two seasons, he’s helped the Texans to the postseason every year.

Last NFL season (2025, Texans)

• 14 starts, 3,041 pass yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs, 64.5% completion
• Stroud went 9-5 as the starter. Houston reached the divisional round after beating Pittsburgh 30-6, then lost 28-16 to New England.

5. Quinn Ewers — Dolphins (2025, 7th round)

Preseason Week 1 stats: 5 of 18, 91 yards

Ewers got off to a rocky start but rebounded later in the preseason – and was pretty good in spot duty as a starter during the regular season, where very little went right for the Dolphins

Last NFL season (2025, Dolphins)

• 3 starts, 622 pass yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 66.3% completion
• Ewers appeared in four games and went 1-2 as the starter. Miami finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs

So what does this mean for the 2026 rookie QB class?

The lesson isn’t that preseason doesn’t matter. It does. Coaches are evaluating. Players are battling for position on the depth chart – or just trying to make the team. But for those of us watching from the outside, it’s easy to mistake one night’s results for a glimpse into the future. History keeps reminding us that those are two very different things.

Prescott looked like a franchise QB from his first preseason snap and eventually became one. Pickett looked every bit as impressive and he’s already a journeyman in his fifth season on his fifth team. And Goff and Stroud stumbled out of the gate before becoming Pro Bowl-caliber starters. 

That’s why Beck’s debut should be viewed for what it was: encouraging, but incomplete. He did the things Arizona wanted him to do. He processed quickly. He was poised. He pushed the ball down the field when he had the chance. That’s a much better place to start than the alternative. But becoming an NFL quarterback has always been about what comes next, not what happened on one Thursday night in August.