Chris Sutton’s World Cup quarter-final predictions

July 9, 2026 No Comments

Chris Sutton’s World Cup quarter-final predictionsByChris BevanBBC Sport journalistPublished22 minutes agoFour more teams will be heading home after the World Cup quarter-finals, but which four will be staying on for the semi-finals?BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton did pretty well with his predictions for the last 16, with Switzerland’s penalty shootout win over Colombia the only tie to catch him out.AI found things harder, and was wrong about Brazil’s defeat by Norway and the USA’s elimination at the hands of Belgium.For once, the users of the BBC’s new predictor game did not take bragging rights – they also only managed 6/8 correct results – but with 96 of this World Cup’s 104 matches now completed, they still lead the way in the overall scores.Chris and AI have both been right 61 times (64%) but you lot are on top with 68 (71%).Will there be any more surprises in the quarter-finals, which includes England against Norway and France versus Morocco?AI’s predictions have been generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat. We simply asked the tool to ‘predict the results of the World Cup quarter-final ties’.The BBC predictor game allows readers to pick a winner from each knockout tie.

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QUARTER-FINAL TIES

Thursday, 9 July

France v Morocco

France v Morocco

Boston / 21:00 BST

This has been a World Cup of surprises but AI always goes for the obvious doesn’t it?

It doesn’t have opinions or insight – that’s why it was wrong and thought Brazil would beat Norway in the last round. I don’t rely on algorithms – and that’s why I got that tie right.

However, while I am brave when it comes to my predictions, I am not stupid – well, not all the time anyway – which is why I am going for the favourites here.

I have backed France to win this World Cup from the start, and I am not going to change my mind now.

Morocco are capable of beating them but, to do it, they will have to do something they have not done so far at this tournament, which is play well for 90 minutes.

They were really poor in the first half against Canada in the last 16 and looked really lethargic. They are a team who have spells in games where they look a real force, but if they start like that again this time, then they will be in big trouble.

They are a powerful side and skilful too, but key forward Ismael Saibari’s injury is a blow too and I am not really sure if they can hurt France without him up front.

We saw some real character from France to stay calm in the face of the provocation they got from Paraguay last time out, and we already knew about their quality.

Desire Doue came off the bench to make a difference in that game, which shows the strength they have and, because of that – and with Saibari out – I am going for France to take this.

Sutton’s prediction: 2-1

AI’s prediction: 2-1

AI’s response to Sutton saying it only picks obvious scores: The aim isn’t to be surprising, Chris. The aim is to be right.

Friday, 10 July

Spain v Belgium

Spain v Belgium

Los Angeles / 20:00 BST

I thought Spain were miles off it in the final third against Portugal in the last 16.

I was covering the game for Radio 5 Live and a big part of why they struggled was because Lamine Yamal was up against Nuno Mendes and did not have the beating of him.

Mikel Oyarzabal missed a good early chance for Spain, but after that they didn’t really get going until two of their substitutes, Ferran Torres and Mikel Merino, combined to win it for them late on.

Spain still haven’t conceded a goal which is impressive, but my prediction here is really based on me thinking they cannot be as bad in attack again.

Belgium took USA apart last time out, but it’s hard to read much into that because I am not really sure if it was down to how bad the USA were on the day.

Spain are obviously a much harder test anyway, but Amadou Onana’s injury is a blow for Belgium’s midfield.

I just feel like Spain will dominate the ball and Belgium will have to play on the counter-attack.

Will they hurt Spain? No.

Will they be the first team to score against them? Another no, I’m afraid.

I’m quite surprised Belgium have made it this far, but they are not going any further.

Sutton’s prediction: 3-0

AI’s prediction: 2-0

Saturday, 11 July

Norway v England

Norway v England

Miami / 22:00 BST

England’s 3-2 win over Mexico was probably the game of the tournament so far.

I really enjoyed the resilience they showed with 10 men, with the subs coming on and John Stones blocking things, Dan Burn heading every ball clear and Djed Spence making some really important challenges.

This will be a different kind of test for Thomas Tuchel’s side, but I think it will be just as close.

Orjan Nyland made some great saves to help Norway get past Brazil, but I’ve seen quite a lot of them and think they are a good side.

Everyone knows about their star quality in Martin Odegaard and Erling Haaland and, after shooting down Brazil, I am sure Haaland will have a big say in what happens in this game as well.

His movement for his first goal against Brazil was just unbelievable. His contest with Gabriel was hyped up before the game but Haaland won that battle hands down.

Heading is not even among his best attributes, but he stayed out of Gabriel’s eyeline and, at the point the cross was played, he anticipated where it was going, and the defender got nowhere near him.

There are going to be more goals in this game and it would not surprise me if Haaland got a couple of them.

England have not controlled games the way I think people expected them to. They have been a team of moments at this World Cup, in that they have produced some moments of quality at the right times to get through.

At the same time, though, I don’t see Norway’s defence keeping Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham quiet.

If the game opens up, then England won’t mind that one bit. I think there is even more to come from their front players, starting here.

Sutton’s prediction: 2-3

AI’s prediction: 1-2

Sunday, 12 July

Argentina v Switzerland

Argentina v Switzerland

Kansas City / 02:00 BST

I never really thought Argentina were going out against Egypt, even at 2-0 down.

The holders are so streetwise, and I always thought they would find a way out of trouble. Lionel Messi might have missed another penalty but he still did his bit.

Apart from Argentina, the South American teams have been a massive disappointment at this World Cup. Before the tournament, I kept hearing about how dangerous they would be, but Messi and Co are the only side left flying the flag.

Even Argentina have made hard work of both knockout ties so far, after struggling against Cape Verde in the last 32 and then against Egypt, and I think they will find this tricky too.

Admittedly, Switzerland did not offer much going forward against Colombia, with Johan Manzambi out injured and Ruben Vargas only fit enough to come on in extra time.

But the Swiss are solid enough and I think their strong defence will make this closer than people might expect.

I am going with my heart here, really, because I want to see an Argentina-England semi-final, but my gut feeling is Messi will have another moment to send his team through.

Sutton’s prediction: 2-1

AI’s prediction: 2-0

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