Dave Richard’s 12 players to avoid will save your 2026 Fantasy Football season: Do not draft these busts!

Did you draft Saquon Barkley last year? What about Breece Hall or Travis Kelce? How about Terry McLaurin or D.J. Moore? Did you take a quarterback too soon?

Don’t you wish you could have read something — anything — that would have helped you make better decisions on Draft Day?

You could have. All of those names and more were on my final Busts list of 2025.

(Then again, so was D’Andre Swift and Zay Flowers. And let’s face it, Josh Allen was far from a bust even if you reached for him. No one reported I was perfect.)

Busts are based on Average Draft Position. I’ll never rule out drafting anyone on this list but if it’s not at a value then I am for-sure OUT on that player being on any of my teams.

Let me show you the research I’ve done that’s compelled me to lower expectations for these players.

Annual reminder on drafting QBs

It’s taken about a decade but we’re finally starting to get through to more people about the pitfalls of reaching for a quarterback too soon in one-QB redraft leagues. At least it looks that way based on CBS Offseason Average Draft Position (ADP), where Josh Allen (28.8th overall), Drake Maye (47.9) and Lamar Jackson (48.4) are the first three signal-callers off the board.

Do yourself a favor and find a ranked list of Fantasy quarterbacks. As you scan the names, ask yourself if you’d be OK starting them on your squad. The more names you say yes to, the more you should be focused on NOT reaching for a quarterback in your drafts. Similarly, if you don’t say yes to many QBs as starters, then you might only feel good about your team if you do reach for a quarterback.

Point is, there are a lot of good quarterbacks you could start, and if you wait until you get a steal of a deal then you should benefit by getting some good players at other positions first.

CBS Sports ADP: 7.5
FantasyPros ADP: 6.0
2025 Fantasy stats: 24.5 PPR points per game
He’s sorta bust-ish because … he’s a 30-year-old running back coming off of a 450-touch season with declining rushing efficiency, plus his own team has hinted at a reduction in his workload. It’s not just the history of NFL running backs coming off of 450-plus-touch seasons that should scare you, it’s McCaffrey’s own history of coming off 380-plus-touch seasons that should make you flinch. He’s never had a so-so year — it’s always been dominant or disastrous with no in-between, and his health has been tied to his production every single time. At bare minimum, drafters should know what they’re getting into when they trust McCaffrey with a top-12 pick.
I’d draft him: No sooner than ninth overall in any format.

CBS Sports ADP: 30.6
FantasyPros ADP: 30.0
2025 Fantasy stats: 13.1 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … he’s on a shaky offense with suspect coaches making suspect personnel decisions. For the second year in a row, Jets coach Aaron Glenn has insisted on using three running backs. That’s perfect for new playcaller Frank Reich, who has habitually used one guy for rushing downs and another for passing downs (third downs, two-minute offense). Reich’s history with RBs has been awful for Fantasy: Just four times in 10 seasons has a back averaged at least 13 PPR points under his playcalling. Geno Smith has been no prize for his running backs either — Ashton Jeanty had to scrape and claw his way to 14.4 PPR points per game last year and that was the second-best average a RB has had in Smith’s six seasons as a full-time starter. Drafting Hall with the expectation to land 13 PPR points per game is reasonable, but I’m not looking for that in Round 3 or really even Round 4.
I’d draft him: Round 5

CBS Sports ADP: 39.6
FantasyPros ADP: 31
2025 Fantasy stats: 14.3 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … he’s being overrated by Fantasy managers again. Flowers makes my bust list every year and I say the same thing every time: I love the talent, I hate the situation. While I expect this new Ravens offense to be a little less run-reliant, I also expect them to use tight ends quite a bit. That’s in line with Declan Doyle’s expected tendencies. Baltimore has also added big receivers in an effort to be more physical, which isn’t exactly a trait Flowers possesses. Flowers turns up aces in games the Ravens find themselves passing a lot in, but I’m not sold on that specific game script being followed in even half of their games. Last year was Flowers’ first averaging more than 13 PPR points per game despite three straight seasons of averaging between 6.8 and 6.9 targets per game. He’s a good Fantasy receiver, but don’t reach for him.
I’d draft him: Round 4

CBS Sports ADP: 28.3
FantasyPros ADP: 39
2025 Fantasy stats: 14.3 PPR points per game in four games
He’s a bust because … we have no idea how explosive he’ll be, or if/when he’ll be used as a full-time starter. Goes without saying that if Nabers is part of the regular practice routine for the Giants come August that he’ll be off this list faster than when he ran a go route as a rookie. But until then we’re talking about a player whose speed may have been compromised by the ACL and meniscus surgery he had this offseason. He’s also coming back to a completely different offense that figures to be reliant on the run game, which has been the case for John Harbaugh’s Baltimore offenses for nearly two decades. The best-case scenario might be Nabers being a solid Fantasy receiver in the second half of this season, in which case he’ll drag down a lineup spot in the first eight or so weeks you’re confident enough to start him. That drops his season-long upside drastically and makes him someone to trade for, not someone to draft, especially with a top 40 selection.
I’d draft him: Round 4-5, unless he’s clearly back to his old self

CBS Sports ADP: 60.8
FantasyPros ADP: 47
2025 Fantasy stats: 15.9 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … age and regression make for a rancid combination. We saw Adams battle through some nagging injuries last year, now he’ll be 34 in December. And we saw Adams rack up 14 touchdowns, all of which made up for 37.7% of his total PPR points. The Rams offense is still going to be great, but no one should expect Adams to keep scoring once every 4.3 catches. L.A. not only has more confidence than ever in its run game but also has led the multiple-TE personnel charge that will undoubtedly take Adams’ target rate even further than the 8.1 per game he had last year (and that was a nine-year low). Tack on what should be an amazing Rams defense that might lead to more lopsided wins and fewer track meets and Adams could be a disappointing part of your Fantasy team. I’d rather be out a year too soon than a year too late on an aging vet, even if it’s a legend.
I’d draft him: Round 5-6

CBS Sports ADP: 59.8
FantasyPros ADP: 50
2025 Fantasy stats: 12.9 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … I’m not sold the targets will be there for him. They’ve rarely been whenever he’s played in the same game as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta — last year it was 4.8 per game. New Lions playcaller Drew Petzing has been one of the most TE-friendly playcallers in the NFL, constantly utilizing and targeting tight ends to create mismatches. His arrival might mean a lot of inconsistent target volume and stats for Williams. It’s a shame because Williams is legitimately amazing, but until he’s got a locked-in role, he shouldn’t be one of your first five picks.
I’d draft him: Round 6-7

CBS Sports ADP: 64.5
FantasyPros ADP: 67.0
2025 Fantasy stats: 10.7 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … he’s rarely met the expectations we had for him through two seasons and might be miscast in Mike LaFleur’s new offense. LaFleur reported he views Harrison as an X receiver like Davante Adams was last year. That’s rich because Harrison hasn’t been great in contested catch situations (44% catch rate), has struggled to win along the sidelines for two seasons, and has struggled with press coverage. Fade routes — if he can get on the same page with his quarterback — are definitely do-able, though. But that’s not enough to chance a quality pick on him. He’s just one of three really good targets in the Cardinals offense, and if he’s not catching fire then LaFleur has really easy alternatives to lean on. Due to injuries as much as underwhelming play Harrison has yet to average seven targets per game, which is the line most top-tier Fantasy receivers cross. It’s nice that he’s not going as early as he did in 2024 or 2025, but the price is still too expensive.
I’d draft him: mid-Round 7

CBS Sports ADP: 74.6
FantasyPros ADP: 69.0
2025 Fantasy stats: x PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … there’s no telling which way the Steelers backfield will shake out. Everyone assumed that Warren would handle the “Kenneth Gainwell role” when Rico Dowdle signed, but the metrics lay out that both backs are capable pass catchers and either one could handle third downs. Warren, admittedly, has the better receiving efficiency metrics, but they’ve even been between 0.1 targets per game of each other each of the past two years. More importantly, Dowdle was signed into the NFL and developed by Mike McCarthy, the Steelers new head coach. Dowdle also has a much better success rate near the goal line (75% last year, 40% in 2024) than Warren (28.6% last year, 25% in 2024). If Dowdle hoards the goal line then it would take a lot of catches for Warren to match up with Dowdle in Fantasy scores. And I wouldn’t expect Aaron Rodgers to check it down to his backs all the time this year given the additions to the Steelers passing game. Frankly, I’d rather draft Dowdle later.
I’d draft him: Round 8

CBS Sports ADP: 87
FantasyPros ADP: 70.0
He’s a bust because … people are putting too much into his draft capital and highlight reels and not into his reality. The hamstring injury that limited him in the lead-up to the draft came from an injury he tried to play through in 2025. In 2024 he fractured his collarbone. In 2023 he barely played after his left ACL, MCL and PCL were hit head-on by a violent defender in 2022. Tyson definitely proved to be speedy and shifty when he did play, but he was not physical at all, struggled with press coverage and rarely made gains after contact as only four of Tyson’s 136 catches in 2024-25 went 10-plus yards after first contact. He also has a poor catch rate in contested situations (43.8% catch rate in 2025). He can be a good No. 2 option for Tyler Shough in New Orleans, and he’s certain to have some good weeks, but I have real concerns about his ability to be around for many of those weeks, not to mention outperform someone like Chris Olave. It’s ridiculous to take him earlier than Round 8.
I’d draft him: Round 9

CBS Sports ADP: 84.1
FantasyPros ADP: 72.0
He’s a bust because … his situation has gotten worse for the second offseason in a row. Going from Seattle to Pittsburgh was bad, and being stuck in an offense that rarely challenged downfield led to Metcalf’s worst per-game average in any reception-based format since his rookie year. The Steelers still have Aaron Rodgers but added veteran wideout Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Germie Bernard while changing playbooks to Mike McCarthy’s West Coast offense. McCarthy values receivers who can run the whole route tree and can especially win on slants, hitches and flats. Metcalf can do those, but Pittman and Bernard have been better, especially on hitches, throughout their careers in the pros and college, respectively. The improved receiving corps and playbook is expected to change a lot of what we saw from the Steelers in 2025, including a slight downturn from the 6.6 targets per game Metcalf had last year. And in 2025, he had just as many games with under 10 PPR points as he did with 14-plus PPR points (six each). Sure, the value of drafting him outside of the first six rounds is good, but I’m not sure he’s even the best wideout in Pittsburgh this year unless in non-PPR.
I’d draft him: Round 8

CBS Sports ADP: 80.0
FantasyPros ADP: 78.0
He’s a bust because … you’re forgetting who the real Stevenson is. Before he had three massive games against easy opponents to end last season, he scored three times total and averaged 9.0 PPR points over 11 games. Then in three playoff games against tough opponents he averaged 13.1 thanks in part to a garbage-time in the Super Bowl. Keep in mind: the Patriots schedule is expected to be harder this season, and second-year speedster TreVeyon Henderson will have opportunities to pull more touches than last year (the two basically split when both were healthy in 2025). The veteran back has averaged more than 12.9 PPR points once in five seasons. Don’t overrate him because he had a few monster games against the Ravens, Jets and Fins.
I’d draft him: Round 8-9

CBS Sports ADP: 98.4
FantasyPros ADP: 85.0
He’s a bust because … he’s unlikely to average five targets and 11 touches per game again on a different team with a different offense and a different quarterback. Gainwell made the most of a magical opportunity to hog targets in a pathetic Steelers offense last year. But don’t expect him to replicate it in Tampa Bay, even if he’s seemingly locked into a passing-downs role with the Bucs. Never once in Rachaad White’s career with the Bucs did he average more than 4.1 targets per game, and when he did, it was as their lead RB. Since arriving in Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield has averaged 18.5% of his targets to his running backs, which is a fine number, but not all of those targets will go to Gainwell as Bucky Irving is also a reliable receiver out of the backfield. It’s better to treat Gainwell as a handcuff of sorts for Irving, though even his role won’t increase that much because the Bucs have Sean Tucker as a solid runner. Plus both Irving and Tucker figure to soak up touchdown opportunities, leaving Gainwell as a catch-dependent PPR-only bench RB. A top-100 pick is too soon for a guy who has averaged eight-plus PPR points per game once in his five-year career.
I’d draft him: Round 10 in PPR, later in half- and non-PPR