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No offense to Yankees-Red Sox or Cardinals-Cubs or what have you, but without question the most heated MLB rivalry currently is Dodgers-Padres. And tonight’s series finale from Petco Park in San Diego will have a bit more juice because Shohei Ohtani is expected to both pitch and hit for the first time in weeks.

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Dodgers vs. Padres parlay

  • Padres alt +2.5
  • Alt Under 9.5

FanDuel parlay: -117

Ohtani was in a decent hitting slump early in the season, so the Dodgers made the decision to simply let him solely focus on pitching those days his rotation spot is up. The last time he hit while pitching was April 22 in San Francisco. Ohtani was 0-for-4 with a strikeout and threw six shutout innings in what was a no-decision for him and a loss for the Dodgers.

Los Angeles has a built-in off day Thursday, so that factored in the decision here, plus Ohtani is starting to find his groove a bit at the plate, as he’s on a six-game hitting streak with five multiple-hit games to raise his average from .233 to .272. He still has only seven homers and has gone yard just once in May. He’s +267 to hit one tonight. Ohtani was a +400 second-favorite to Aaron Judge (+350) for the most homers in the majors when the season opened.

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While Ohtani has been mediocre at the plate, he has been unbelievable on the mound, and his wish to capture the NL Cy Young Award might actually happen, as he’s the +550 third favorite behind Paul Skenes (+230) and Cristopher Sanchez (+250). For yet another MVP, he’s a huge -350 favorite.

Last time out on the mound, Ohtani did what aces are supposed to do in stopping a losing streak. The Dodgers had dropped four in a row entering last Wednesday’s game vs. the Giants, and Ohtani threw seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and only four hits allowed in a 4-0 victory; Ohtani did not exceed six innings at any point last year. The victory improved him to 3-2 with a microscopic 0.82 ERA on the season.

That ERA is the sixth-lowest in MLB through a pitcher’s first seven starts since the wild-card era began in 1994. It is second-lowest in Dodgers history for the first seven starts of a season, trailing only Fernando Valenzuela’s 0.29 ERA in his memorable 1981 campaign. The last time someone had a lower mark at this point in his season was Jacob deGrom (0.80) in 2021. Valenzuela won the NL Cy Young that year, but deGrom wasn’t a factor in the ’21 race as he was limited to 15 starts due to injury.

I wouldn’t expect Ohtani to go more than six tonight, simply because manager Dave Roberts stated the main reason Ohtani was allowed to go out for the seventh last Wednesday having thrown 90 pitches was because he wasn’t in the lineup as a hitter. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him for 5.7 innings, 6.4 strikeouts, 3.7 hits allowed and 1.3 earned runs. At DraftKings, he is -103 to get the victory and has an Over/Under of 17.5 outs recorded.

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Ohtani has made only two career starts vs. the Padres and is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in six innings. His first was with the Angels in 2023 and it didn’t go well. The other came last June 16 with the Dodgers in Ohtani’s return from Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers limited him to a single inning, and Ohtani allowed a run on a Manny Machado sacrifice fly.

The Padres get so jacked up when the Dodgers are in town, and it’s such a great atmosphere at Petco Park. San Diego is playing way above expectations considering the team’s spring win total was set at 83.5 but is neck-and-neck with L.A. for the NL West lead. The various books don’t seem to care, though, listing the Padres at +700 to win it and the Dodgers -750. Hey, every win counts in the rivalry for a potential tiebreaker.

No doubt one reason why the Padres have overachieved has been the success of tonight’s starting pitcher Randy Vasquez (5-1, 2.68 ERA), who threw six shutout innings last time out in a win vs. Seattle. He has been the third-most profitable pitcher in the majors, as if you had wagered $100 on San Diego to win each of his nine starts (team is 8-1), you would be up +596. The only two better are the Nationals’ Foster Griffin (+610) and White Sox’s Davis Martin ($871).

Vasquez worked with teammate Yu Darvish in an effort to improve velocity, and it’s working as the righty’s four-seamer is averaging 94.9 mph, up from 93.5 mph a year ago. In 2025, Vasquez made three appearances (two starts) vs. the Dodgers and was 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in 13.1 innings. Ohtani hasn’t figured him out yet, going 0-for-5 with three Ks. But Andy Pages has, as he’s 3-for-6 with two homers.

Padres superstar closer Mason Miller is likely not available after pitching both games of the series. He took the loss Tuesday. 

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Ohtani hasn’t been close to the same hitter while pitching, so that should help our total play, and his pitching speaks for itself. Vasquez is not this good, but hopefully can keep the L.A. lineup moderately in check. Both games in the series have been decided by one run. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.