When the NFL releases the schedule for the upcoming regular season, it’s a small form of torture. Sure, we get to see the roadmap for the upcoming year and all the great games we have in store for us, but the release is also met with the realization that we have to wait months until the action truly gets going. It’s a tease!
While we’ll have to practice patience, the schedule release does also give us the ability to begin thinking about our betting strategies for the upcoming year, and that includes Week 1.
Of course, it’s wise to wait until closer to the start of the regular season, actually kicking off, to fire off any bets for the opening weekend due to concerns about injuries between now and then. That mentioned, it’s never too early to get a sense of how the oddsmakers are sizing up the league. Below, we’ll highlight all the initial odds and then give our way-too-early leans for each game on the opening slate.
NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings.
NFL Week 1 odds
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New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (Wednesday)
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Seahawks -3.5
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44.5
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Patriots +160, Seahawks -192
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San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday, in Melbourne)
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Rams -2.5
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48.5
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49ers +130, Rams -155
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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
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Lions -7
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48.5
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Saints +260, Lions -325
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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
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Bills -1.5
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45.5
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Bills -112, Texans -108
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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
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Ravens -3.5
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49.5
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Ravens -185, Colts +154
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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
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Bears -2.5
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44.5
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Bears -135, Panthers +114
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
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Bengals -3.5
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50.5
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Buccaneers +164, Bengals -198
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Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
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Steelers -3
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42.5
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Falcons +145, Steelers -175
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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
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Titans -3
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39.5
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Jets +142, Titans -170
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Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
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Jaguars -7
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40.5
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Browns +230, Jaguars -285
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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
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Eagles -5.5
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46.5
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Commanders +195, Eagles -238
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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
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Chargers -11.5
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45.5
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Cardinals +455, Chargers -625
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Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
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Raiders -3
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41.5
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Dolphins +150, Raiders -180
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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
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Packers -1.5
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44.5
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Packers -125, Vikings +105
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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
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Cowboys -2.5
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48.5
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Cowboys -130, Giants +110
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday)
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Chiefs -2.5
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42.5
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Broncos +130, Chiefs -155
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Patriots at Seahawks (Wednesday)
The last time we saw these two teams square off, it wasn’t even close. Seattle cruised to a Lombardi Trophy, blowing out the Patriots in Super Bowl LX, 29-13. While Seattle lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency, they should still be among the biggest threats to win the title again in 2026, so it’s no surprise to see them favored by 3.5 at home in the opener. This is also the 12th Super Bowl rematch the following season, and the Super Bowl winner is 8-3 straight-up in those games. With the banner being unveiled, Lumen Field should be a stellar atmosphere, and I wonder if we’ll see a similar result in this game as we did in the Super Bowl. New England should continue to be competitive and a team on the ascent, but this is a tough spot for them out of the gate.
Way-too-early pick: Seahawks -3.5
49ers at Rams (Thursday, in Melbourne)
We’re heading internationally to begin the season, as the 49ers and Rams will square off in Australia. While the first-ever game in Australia is interesting on its own, this is also a monster divisional matchup. They split the season series in 2025, and we expect these NFC West rivals to again be duking it out for playoff position. Last season was nightmarish for San Francisco as they were hit hard by injuries. I expect that’ll give them a bit of a chip on their shoulder in the early goings of the season, which makes them a live underdog in this matchup against Los Angeles.
Way-too-early pick: 49ers +2.5
Saints at Lions
I’m high on Tyler Shough and fascinated to see how he fares as New Orleans’ clear-cut full-time starter in his second season in the league. While I may be bullish on them for 2026, this is a tough draw in the opener as they head to Detroit to face a Lions team that is licking its wounds after taking a step back in 2025. Despite missing out on the playoffs last year, Dan Campbell’s team still has the foundation of a heavyweight in the NFC and should be able to come out of the gates firing to begin the season. Despite their struggles a year ago, Detroit still had an average margin of victory at Ford Field of 9.5, which makes the touchdown spread palatable.
Way-too-early pick: Lions -7
Bills at Texans
It’s May, and I’m still trying to digest C.J. Stroud’s postseason. It was the type of performance that makes you question whether or not he’s a franchise cornerstone, and the fact that Houston hasn’t locked him up with an extension (while giving one to Will Anderson) only pours fuel onto my concerns. Meanwhile, the Bills have to have a sour taste in their mouths with how the 2025 season unfolded and how big an opportunity they missed to get to a Super Bowl. They gave Josh Allen a weapon this offseason after trading for D.J. Moore, and they should be back on track for 2026. I expect Josh Allen vs. this Houston defense to be one of the highlights of the opening weekend, but the quarterback prevails.
Way-too-early pick: Bills -1.5
Ravens at Colts
We still don’t know if Daniel Jones (Achilles) will be ready to go to begin the season, so it’s hard to lean Indy’s way at this stage of the offseason. If we get word that Jones has the green light, it won’t be surprising to see this spread move towards Indy and possibly even make them a slight favorite. That mentioned, Baltimore should again be one of the more talented teams in the AFC in 2026 with Lamar Jackson in the prime of his career. Given the questions surrounding Jones and the quarterback situation with the Colts, we lean towards Jesse Minter getting his first win as the Ravens head coach out of the way early.
Way-too-early pick: Ravens -3.5
Bears at Panthers
The Bears were 5-4 (SU and ATS) on the road last season (including playoffs), and they should continue to be a playoff threat in 2026 after winning the NFC North last year. That mentioned, don’t underestimate the Panthers either. They caught plenty of teams (and bettors) sleeping last season as they were 6-2 ATS as a home underdog and 5-3 straight-up in those contests. I think they’re live dogs again to begin the regular season, and while Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams should be able to walk out of Carolina with a win, it’ll be by the skin of their teeth.
Way-too-early pick: Panthers +2.5
Buccaneers at Bengals
The more I look at the Bengals, the more all-in I am about their prospects for the 2026 season. Sure, Joe Burrow needs to stay healthy, but if he does, they’ve answered a lot of questions this offseason. They deployed their offseason efforts almost exclusively on fixing the defense and added the likes of Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe over the last few months. If they can just be average on that side of the ball, the offense is so elite that it may be enough to truly compete for a championship. While the Bucs also added intriguing pieces to their defense, I want to see how Baker Mayfield and the offense look without Mike Evans (signed with the 49ers in free agency) before backing them.
Way-too-early pick: Bengals -3.5
Falcons at Steelers
If there is one bet I would be willing to make this early in the offseason, it’d be on the Falcons. Atlanta is currently being spotted a field goal at +100 odds and +145 on the moneyline against a team that currently doesn’t have an answer at quarterback. Who knows what is going to happen with Aaron Rodgers at this stage, and if he decides not to play for Pittsburgh in 2026, they are currently looking at Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, or Drew Allar as their options at quarterback. While the Falcons have a quarterback battle on their hands between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., they at least have their options in-house. Had to lean towards the Steelers at this stage, given the uncertainty of Rodgers.
Way-too-early pick: Falcons +3
Jets at Titans
One of the underrated storylines of the second half of last season was the mini-breakout by Cam Ward. His numbers jumped across the board, which sets the stage for a possible full-blown breakout in Year 2. That is especially true given that the Titans have completely reshaped the organization around him, hiring Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll as the offensive coordinator, and adding pieces like Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson. While the Jets had a strong offseason, they are still a few years away from being trusted even with a field goal in their pocket. I also believe Saleh (who coached the Jets from 2021 to 2024 before being fired) will be particularly motivated for this opener against his former organization.
Way-too-early pick: Titans -3
Browns at Jaguars
The Browns may have a defense that is ready to contend, but the franchise continues to be hamstrung by instability at quarterback. Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel will spend the summer duking it out for the starting job, but neither has a high ceiling. The Jaguars are coming off a 13-4 season in 2025 (the first under Liam Coen), and there’s no reason to think that they won’t be able to take care of business here, even if Cleveland’s defense could give Trevor Lawrence some problems.
Way-too-early pick: Jaguars -7
Commanders at Eagles
Washington is a bounce-back candidate for me in 2026. They were hit with injuries throughout last season, including to Jayden Daniels. When he’s healthy, Daniels has shown he can take the Commanders to the NFC Championship, and I anticipate him reminding the NFL of that fact next season. Meanwhile, I wonder if the Eagles may go through some early-season bumps on offense, especially if we assume that A.J. Brown won’t be on the roster. Philly will likely be able to eke out a win, but the Commanders will keep it within the number, especially with a revamped defense.
Way-too-early pick: Commanders +5.5
Packers at Vikings
I think Minnesota is live for a Week 1 upset. Outside of J.J. McCarthy taking training camp by storm and reclaiming his starting job, Kyler Murray is going to be QB1 for the Vikings in 2026. When Minnesota has stable quarterback play, they are dangerous, and I believe Murray will be able to give them that. If he can get the ball in the hands of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the offense will move and make the Packers — who may not have Micah Parsons ready for the start of the year — sweat in Week 1.
Way-too-early pick: Vikings +1.5
Dolphins at Raiders
Will it be Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza under center for the Raiders? No matter who it is, I think Las Vegas starts the Klint Kubiak era with a win, while Miami begins the Jeff Hafley era on the wrong side of the scoreboard. The Dolphins have a lot of new parts this season, namely at quarterback with Malik Willis coming aboard. While Willis flashed in spot appearances with the Packers, his receiving unit with the Dolphins is lacking, so there is a question as to where the offensive firepower is coming from outside of running back De’Von Achane. The Raiders are the more sound team at the moment, and should be able to go 1-0 to begin the year in their building.
Way-too-early pick: Raiders -3
Cardinals at Chargers
The Cardinals are not exactly motivated to win games in 2026, as they are likely eyeing the 2027 NFL Draft for their next franchise quarterback. At the moment, Jacoby Brissett and third-round pick Carson Beck are slated to compete for the Week 1 job, but neither will be able to hold a candle to Justin Herbert in the opener. The Chargers should have a healthier offensive line, which means Herbert will stay upright more often than he did a season ago, and that should result in L.A. putting up a ton of points. This is the biggest spread on the Week 1 slate, and it’s not hard to see why. The Chargers should roll.
Way-too-early pick: Chargers -11.5
Cowboys at Giants
The debut of John Harbaugh with the New York Giants not only comes in prime time, but it’ll be against one of the organization’s main rivals in the Cowboys. The Giants are a really fascinating breakout candidate this season after hiring Harbaugh, along with quarterback Jaxson Dart entering Year 2, but the Cowboys made some savvy moves this offseason to improve the defense. If first-round rookies Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence can contribute out of the gate, it could be a night-and-day difference for Dallas on that side of the ball. I think they head into MetLife Stadium and spoil Harbaugh’s debut, and flex their new defense in the process.
Way-too-early pick: Cowboys -2.5
Broncos at Chiefs
We don’t have definitive word on whether either Bo Nix or Patrick Mahomes will be ready for the start of the season, making this game really difficult to handicap. Both could be on the field in Week 1, but they’ll have wildly different experiences. For Nix, he’ll be facing a Chiefs defense that’ll be inserting new pieces into the fold, while he gets to try out his new weapon, wideout Jayden Waddle. As for Mahomes, he’ll be working his way back from a torn ACL and has to go against arguably the top defense in the NFL. Considering where we are in the offseason, I feel more confident in Denver’s defense pulling out the win, regardless of Nix and Mahomes’ status.
Way-too-early pick: Broncos +2.5
