The offseason certainly hasn’t been boring. While we wait for LeBron James to make yet another monumental decision, we’ve seen stars across the league change teams — several of whom have helped reorganize the pecking order in a revitalized Eastern Conference. Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Miami Heat. Kawhi Leonard to the Toronto Raptors. And most recently on Wednesday evening, a blockbuster trade between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics that shipped Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia in exchange for Paul George, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks.
Meanwhile, the Celtics stole backup big Mitchell Robinson away from the defending-champion New York Knicks, signing him to a three-year deal worth $47.4 million. For years, the East was considered the inferior conference. Maybe the West is still superior, but at the very least, the East won’t be boring this season. The restructuring has set up the conference to be as competitive and interesting as it’s been in a long while. There are currently seven teams in the East with 10-to-1 or shorter odds to win the conference. It’s been 18 years since either conference opened a season featuring that many teams bunched up so closely.
So how do the most relevant teams stack up? As we brace for James to make a move and other free agency decisions to shake out, here are the Eastern Conference tiers.
(Odds via FanDuel)
Tier 1 – The Champs
New York Knicks (+290 to win East)
Knicks fans aren’t thrilled about owner James Dolan’s unwillingness to go into the second apron, which he called “suicide” for the myriad team-building penalties levied against franchises that venture into that realm. While the Knicks were able to retain Landry Shamet and Jose Alvarado as key bench pieces, they watched Robinson decamp for their biggest rival. Not great. Apart from Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks didn’t boast a ton of size. Now Robinson is gone and the Knicks are looking for a backup big.
But despite losing Robinson, the Knicks core that just delivered the organization’s first championship in 53 years remains intact. Finals MVP Jalen Brunson is one of the best clutch players of his era. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are two of the best two-way wings in the league. Josh Hart is a streaky shooter, but he’s a Swiss Army knife in every other department, offering so much value beyond scoring. And after reports of the Knicks dangling him at the trade deadline in an effort to court Antetokounmpo surfaced, Towns played arguably the best basketball in his career.
They might not have a ton of size and the bench, as ever, could probably use more reliable options. But the starting five is better than anything else in the conference. Oh, and they’re the champs. Until someone knocks them off the perch, they deserve to have the top spot all to themselves.
Tier 2 – One got better, the other got worse
Boston Celtics (+460)
Prior to parting with Brown, the Celtics had better odds of winning the conference than the Knicks. Now they don’t. It’s not hard to figure out why. Boston traded Brown after a career year in which he made the All-Star team, was second-team All-NBA and finished just outside the top five in the MVP voting. He’s a former Finals MVP who enjoyed considerable success in Boston. And then he got in his feelings about being undervalued and not properly respected when the organization floated him in a deal to land Antetokounmpo. Whatever you think about how Brown reacted to that, the vibes were bad enough in Boston that Brad Stevens and the front office ultimately decided that he had to go.
How did Celtics, Jaylen Brown get here? Trade to 76ers caps off stunning deterioration of relationship
Robby Kalland
People have been trying to break up “the Jays” — Brown and Jayson Tatum — forever. Now it’s finally happened. The Celtics get a complicated 2028 first along with an unprotected 2031 first-rounder. That’s fine for future team-building, but there’s no world where they’re better on the court this season with George instead of Brown. George is 36 and played just 37 games last season and 41 the season before. He’s also owed $54.1 million this season and has a $56.5 million player option the year after. There are pretty good odds he picks that up.
The Celtics still have considerable depth, as we learned when they surprised everyone last year and finished as the East’s No. 2 seed despite Tatum missing much of the season while recovering from an Achilles injury. But for an organization that fancies itself a contender every season, George is an unquestionable downgrade from Brown in nearly every respect.
Toronto Raptors (+750)
As for the Raptors, last year’s No. 5 seed got decidedly better by swapping out Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick for Leonard, who is coming off a career year with the Los Angeles Clippers and made his seventh All-NBA team. The Raptors’ defense was already top five last season and should be even better with Leonard alongside Scottie Barnes, who made his first All-Defense team. The Raptors had to give up quite a few assets to make this happen — two unprotected picks in 2031 and 2033, along with a 2027 first-round swap and two second-rounders — which will make future team-building a lot harder when Leonard will likely be out of the league and Barnes will still be in his prime. That’s a problem for another time. For right now, the Raptors deserve increased attention.
Tier 3 — We have some questions
Philadelphia 76ers (+700)
The new-look Sixers have definitely improved by offloading George’s onerous contract and replacing him with a younger, better player in Brown. The young guard combo of Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe was exhilarating last season and already ranks among the very best backcourts in the NBA. But despite getting better with the Brown trade, there are unknowns in Philly. Who’s the starting power forward? Is it newly-acquired Dean Wade, Dom Barlow, or someone as-of-yet unnamed? And is that good enough to be a true competitor? Can new president of basketball operations Mike Gansey beef up a pretty thin bench that features rookie Labaron Philon, whichever one of Wade or Barlow doesn’t start, Adem Bona, Ariel Hukporti and not a whole lot else worth mentioning? Crucially, and this is the obvious component that could supercharge the Sixers and boost them into one of the upper two tiers, what kind of Joel Embiid will they get and how much will he be on the floor in the regular season and postseason? There are reports that, like everyone else, the Sixers are now interested in LeBron James. Lots of moving parts in Philly.
Detroit Pistons (+750)
The Pistons spent much of last season perched atop the conference, only to lose to the Cavaliers in the second. The big uncertainty in Detroit at present is what happens with Jalen Duren. He had a fantastic regular season and made third-team All-NBA, which qualified him for a new five-year contract worth up to $287 million. He won’t get anywhere near that much because of the disastrous postseason performance where he was outplayed by Wendell Carter Jr in the first round against Orlando and by pretty much everyone in the second round against the Cavs. Detroit leveled up by replacing Tobias Harris with John Collins at power forward, but will the Pistons and Duren reach an agreement to keep him in the Motor City or is he really going to force his way to Sacramento as reports have hinted?
Cleveland Cavaliers (+900)
The questions for the Cavaliers and Heat focus on that same remaining monster free agent: will either of them land LeBron? Cleveland reached the Eastern Conference Finals, a first for Donovan Mitchell, then got smoked in four games by the Knicks. (In fairness to the Cavs, the Knicks smoked everyone so they’re not alone there.) Cleveland president of basketball operations Koby Altman came to the correct conclusion that the Cavs, as currently constituted, aren’t good enough, which is why they worked with James Harden to have him decline his $42.3 million player option to free up money in the hopes of bringing LeBron back for a third and final time. If they get him, the Cavs immediately shoot up the rankings into Tier 1. If they don’t, they won’t.
Miami Heat (+1000)
Same goes for the Heat. Trading for Antetokounmpo was another big-name home run, but Pat Riley still has work to do. Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo make for a formidable frontline, and the Heat inked Andrew Wiggins to a new deal. But they lost Norm Powell in free agency to the Bulls, and in order to land Antetokounmpo, they parted with Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez and Kel’El Ware. All of that leaves the Heat with a hole in the starting lineup, Davion Mitchell as the starting point guard and not enough guard play, shot creation or shooting overall (even with them signing Tim Hardaway Jr in free agency). As with everyone else, LeBron would change the prospects here.
Tier 4 — Everyone else (that remotely matters)
- Indiana Pacers (+1300)
- Atlanta Hawks (+2000)
- Orlando Magic (+2200)
- Charlotte Hornets (+3300)
I have the Hawks ahead of the rest of this pack and the closest team to graduating into a higher tier, even though the oddsmakers disagree. Atlanta was the only team to beat the Knicks more than once in a postseason series. That isn’t nothing. The Pacers are hoping that Tyrese Haliburton looks like himself again after missing all of last season with an Achilles injury and that he’ll hit the ground running with new big man Ivica Zubac and old teammate Pascal Siakam. Everyone is still waiting and wondering if the Magic are going to run it back yet again or finally break up a Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner duo that has yet to achieve anything worth noting. And the Hornets — after trading LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges — seem content to hoard draft capital and build around Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel. Hornets executive vice president of basketball operations Jeff Peterson has done a fantastic job plotting a course that makes sense for what has become a fun franchise, but, like everyone else in this tier, the odds are long that they will create enough noise this season to make the rest of the conference sweat.
