The MLB trade deadline is coming up, and your own league’s is soon to follow. If there was ever a time to cash in on an inevitably depreciating asset, it would be now.
The clearest cause of depreciation, at least among those identifiable ahead of time, is an innings limit. Or maybe not a strict limit, which is something of an antiquated concept, but a softer curtailing of innings as pitchers begin to take on an unfamiliar workload.
It can be achieved through skipped starts, early hooks or phantom IL stints. It’s most prevalent among up-and-coming starters and all the more likely for teams whose playoff hopes have been dashed already.
But it’s not universal. Unless a team lays bare its plans for a pitcher, all we can do is guess who might be affected based on how many innings he’s thrown relative to earlier years in his career. An increase of 30-50 innings over the previous high is generally acceptable, provided that high came in the past year or two.
Of course, no pitcher is shutting down just yet, but it could pay to anticipate who will in the coming weeks. With every team having about 60 games left, every pitcher should have about 60 innings left, presuming a five-man rotation and an average of five innings per start.
With that in mind, here are the 20 starting pitchers most at risk of a workload reduction.
Note: Listed innings totals include minor league and postseason contributions. This year’s are up to date through Wednesday, July 22.
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL Milwaukee • #32 • Age: 24
By pure innings count, Jacob Misiorowski wouldn’t be much of a concern, but seeing as he was pulled after four innings last time amid conflicting reports of him dealing with arm fatigue, I get the feeling we’re in for some workload tomfoolery. The Brewers probably want to save some of those big bullets for the playoffs.
|
||||
Chase Burns
CIN Cincinnati • #26 • Age: 23
Chase Burns landed on the IL right about the time he was reaching his previous high (from college) last year and then returned as a reliever for the final month. Presumably, the Reds will want to extend him further this time, but it’s worth noting that they have less to play for now than they did then.
|
||||
Braxton Ashcraft
PIT Pittsburgh • #35 • Age: 26
Braxton Ashcraft’s recent rough patch may signal that his command is slipping as he approaches his previous high in innings. If the Pirates don’t hang in the playoff race (and they’re on the outside looking in right now), a hard shutdown would likely be on the table.
|
||||
|
Kyle Harrison
MIL Milwaukee • #52 • Age: 24
The fact that Kyle Harrison is currently sidelined by a forearm injury (but on the road to recovery) may save him, actually, from harsher mitigation efforts later. As with Misiorowski, the Brewers will want Harrison ready for the playoffs most of all, which could lead to some abbreviated starts in September.
|
||||
Max Meyer
MIA Miami • #23 • Age: 27
Max Meyer is well in excess of last year’s inning total and may be just a start away from setting a career high. His recent IL stint for a neck strain may be in part a stall tactic as the Marlins continue to assess their playoff chances.
|
||||
|
Eury Perez
MIA Miami • #39 • Age: 23
Eury Perez possibly has enough cushion to make it the rest of the way, projecting for 30-40 more innings than last year, but he’s such a prized asset for the Marlins that they may choose to slow him down if and when they drop out of the playoff race. He’s only two years removed from Tommy John surgery, after all.
|
||||
Payton Tolle
BOS Boston • #70 • Age: 23
The Red Sox’s dramatic re-entry into the playoff race complicates Payton Tolle’s situation since they may not be turning their attention to next year quite so early now. A shift to the bullpen may be necessary if they remain in contention to the end.
|
||||
Justin Wrobleski
LAD L.A. Dodgers • #70 • Age: 26
In most any other organization, Justin Wrobleski would probably be given free rein as a 26-year-old in his third year, but the Dodgers don’t really give any pitcher free rein, do they? If his breakout season has made him a major part of their playoff plans, it’s all the more likely they’ll want to save some of those bullets for when they matter most.
|
||||
Reid Detmers
LAA L.A. Angels • #48 • Age: 27
There are two complicating factors for Reid Detmers. The first is that last year’s low innings total was due to him working in relief rather than missing extended time, and the second is that he’s among the most likely trade candidates over the next couple weeks, presumably going to a team that wouldn’t be acquiring him to put him on ice.
|
||||
Joey Cantillo
CLE Cleveland • #54 • Age: 26
Seeing as Joey Cantillo will be 27 before the year is done, the Guardians may not handle him as carefully as they would a younger pitcher. His outings tend to run short, which will also help to ensure that his workload doesn’t get away from him.
|
||||
Cade Cavalli
WAS Washington • #24 • Age: 27
Cade Cavalli has been a breakout hurler for an organization that was in desperate need of one, and that precious quality may incline the Nationals to be extra careful with him once they drop out of playoff contention. He does have a Tommy John surgery in his past, after all.
|
||||
Griffin Jax
TB Tampa Bay • #22 • Age: 31
Griffin Jax only joined the starting rotation at the end of April after years of working in relief, so factoring in a typical innings increase would be unfair in his case. In fact, seeing as he’s already 31 and under team control for just one more year, the Rays may not bother to curtail his innings beyond what they’re already doing, which is limiting him to about five innings at a time.
|
||||
Landen Roupp
SF San Francisco • #65 • Age: 27
Seeing as he’s already achieved his career high in innings and the Giants have nothing to play for, Landen Roupp would seem like the perfect candidate for a late-season slowdown. Then again, he’s about to turn 28, which isn’t normally a time to put a pitcher on ice, and this Giants regime doesn’t seem like the type that would pack it in early.
|
||||
|
Emmet Sheehan
LAD L.A. Dodgers • #80 • Age: 26
The Dodgers are heavy-handed with every pitcher’s workload, but none more so than Emmet Sheehan, whose development may well have been stunted by all the role changes and early hooks. His unsteady performance this year means you probably aren’t holding your breath over what happens next, but I would expect it to be as aggravating as it always is.
|
||||
|
Jake Bennett
BOS Boston • #64 • Age: 25
Jake Bennett only recently came out of nowhere to emerge as a quality Fantasy option, so finding out that he’s already nearly 25 innings over his previous high is a bit of a letdown. I suspect he’s due for a performance correction anyway, so now wouldn’t be the worst time to dangle him in a trade.
|
||||
|
Shane Drohan
MIL Milwaukee • #55 • Age: 27
The Brewers have been carefully managing Shane Drohan’s innings up to this point, even though he’s already 27, only recently letting him work six innings at a time. His career high came way back in 2023, and he’s had a number of injuries since then.
|
||||
Ryan Weathers
NYY N.Y. Yankees • #40 • Age: 26
Ryan Weathers’ 2024 and 2025 seasons were wrecked by injuries, so he’s already zoomed past his innings allotment from those years. When everyone is back to full health, the Yankees will have a rotation surplus, so preparing Weathers to handle a bullpen role in the playoffs might make sense come September.
|
||||
|
Roki Sasaki
LAD L.A. Dodgers • #11 • Age: 24
Through all the ups and downs, Roki Sasaki has made noticeable strides this year, and the Dodgers may decide that’s victory enough for the notoriously brittle pitcher, shelving him once they’ve reunited the Avengers for the postseason push. Or they may shift him back to the bullpen, which worked out pretty well last postseason.
|
||||
Christian Scott
NYM N.Y. Mets • #45 • Age: 27
Christian Scott just returned from Tommy John surgery in April, so the Mets won’t push the envelope with him, even in a lost season. Would 130 innings be too big of a stretch? Considering he’s never reached 100 before, perhaps, though I’ll note that at 27, he’s probably no longer viewed as a rotation cornerstone.
|
||||
Brandon Young
BAL Baltimore • #63 • Age: 27
Brandon Young has been a surprise contributor this year, and seeing as he’s only 52 percent rostered in CBS Sports league, the buy-in for Fantasy has been pretty slow. If you do take the plunge, though, understand that it may be short-lived. He’s nearly matched his career high in innings already, and it’s been a couple years since he first set that mark.
|
Others of mild concern
Parker Messick
View Profile
Kyle Bradish
View Profile
Michael King
View Profile
Foster Griffin
View Profile
J.T. Ginn
View Profile
Peter Lambert
View Profile
