Fantasy Baseball Prospects Report: Joshua Baez’s four-homer game may propel him to the majors

A lot goes into deciding whether to call up a prospect. Normally, a series of benchmarks needs to be met first. It’s not just a knee-jerk response to one monstrous performance.But rarely are performances as monstrous as the one Joshua Baez had Tuesday. The 22-year-old hit four home runs in a game, a feat so rare that only 21 major leaguers have ever done it. The last minor leaguer to do it was Hogan Windish in 2024, which is itself proof that it’s not an automatic ticket to the majors. Who among us has even heard of Hogan Windish?

But fortunately, this one game isn’t the only thing Baez has going for him. It’s just the just in in a historic power surge that may be enough to propel him all the way to the majors.

FIVE ON THE VERGE

(Here are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)

Joshua Baez, OF, Cardinals

2025 minors: .287 BA (418 AB), 20 HR, 54 SB, .884 OPS, 59 BB, 103 K
2026 minors: .282 BA (252 AB), 23 HR, 12 SB, .976 OPS, 19 BB, 87 K

There can be no doubting Baez’s ability to hit for power at this point. His four-homer game Tuesday gives him 12 home runs in his past 18 games, and his average (92.5 mph) and max (114.1 mph) exit velocities are both in the top 10 percent at Triple-A. Of his home runs Tuesday, two were hit in excess of 108 mph. I’m guessing they were the screamers over the left field fence, seen here:

The reason I’m only now introducing him to my Five on the Verge, even as he was my No. 17 overall prospect coming into the year, is that his strikeout rate has ballooned. It’s up over 30 percent, which has been the norm for his minor league career, but he broke out with a 21 percent rate last year. Rare is the major leaguer who excels with a strikeout in excess of 30 percent, and the threshold is all the more concerning in Baez’s case since improved contact seemed to fuel his breakout a year ago. But clearly, he’s breaking out in a different sort of way this year, having already set a career high for home runs.

The Cardinals initiated a youth movement about a week ago, removing some of the deadweight from their lineup and introducing Blaze Jordan at third base and Jimmy Crooks at catcher. That’s all the more reason to think they would do the same with Baez, who could step in for Nathan Church in center field.

Luis Lara, OF, Brewers

2025 minors: .257 BA (513 AB), 2 HR, 44 SB, .712 OPS, 86 BB, 99 K
2026 minors: .322 BA (230 AB), 7 HR, 20 SB, .900 OPS, 45 BB, 37 K

The Brewers have begun to cool on Sal Frelick in right field — understandably, given that he’s batting .227 with a .611 OPS — but so far, it’s mostly led to more at-bats for first baseman Andrew Vaughn, with Jake Bauers shifting over to right field. That’s a fine enough arrangement for now, but center fielder Garrett Mitchell is no great shakes either. More than anything else, Lara stands out for his defense, so the Brewers would be winning on two fronts by bringing him up. Granted, he’s off to a slow start in June, batting .167 (5 for 30 in eight games, but his overall numbers are still excellent. And because the Brewers recently locked him up with a seven-year deal, there’s absolutely no reason for them to play the service time manipulation game. They’ll call Lara up on their schedule, to be sure, but they will call him up.

Karson Milbrandt, SP, Marlins

2025 minors: 3-5, 3.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 90 IP, 48 BB, 113 K
2026 minors: 4-1, 1.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 58 IP, 23 BB, 78 K

The Marlins have been attempting to patch up their rotation with various bullpen arms, and it could be going better, as Tyler Phillips’ eight-run implosion Tuesday shows. Why not just turn to Karson Milbrandt? Presumably, they want to see how he handles Triple-A first. He had just one strikeout over six innings (albeit scoreless ones) in his first turn June 6 but then struck out seven over five one-run innings in his second turn June 13. Combine those two starts with his nine at Double-A, and he has a 1.24 ERA and 12.1 K/9. The control is a little shaky, but the arsenal is deep and the stuff plus-plus.

River Ryan, SP, Dodgers

2024 minors: 0-0, 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 24 1/3 IP, 8 BB, 32 K
2024 majors: 1-0, 1.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 20 1/3 IP, 9 BB, 18 K
2026 minors: 3-0, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 32 IP, 7 BB, 40 K

Nothing new to report with River Ryan. The 27-year-old continues to plug away at Triple-A, showing the same swing-and-miss stuff that led to a promotion just before his elbow troubles started in 2024. Whether it’s Eric Lauer reverting to the mean or any of the Dodgers’ other five starting pitchers befalling an injury (keeping a six-man rotation together is tough), River’s day is coming. And considering the supporting cast he’ll have to work with, it makes sense to get ahead of the news.

Yohandy Morales, 3B, Nationals

2025 minors: .265 BA (509 AB), 15 HR, .769 OPS, 57 BB, 164 K
2026 minors: .330 BA (227 AB), 15 HR, .982 OPS, 26 BB, 63 K

Like Luis Lara, Yohandy Morales has slowed down a bit in recent days, batting just .190 (4 for 21) in his past five. His .330/.405/.577 slash line still makes him out to be the Yordan Alvarez of Triple-A, though, as do his 92.8 mph average exit velocity (92nd percentile) and 113.1 mph max exit velocity (93rd percentile). He’s not actually Alvarez, of course. He whiffs on nearly a quarter of pitches in the zone and chases on nearly one-third of them out of it, two traits that could spell trouble against the best pitchers in the world. Still, he’s likely maxed out his growth against minor league pitchers and is in need of some on-the-job learning. Curtis Mead’s emergence has no doubt contributed to Morales’ delayed arrival, but Mead has also seen his numbers dip recently and isn’t in the lineup quite every day. The chances of Morales being a high-impact player in Fantasy are low, but they’re high enough that he’s sure to attract some attention on the waiver wire when he inevitably gets the call.

FIVE ON THE PERIPHERY

(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)

Charlie Condon, 1B, Rockies

2025 minors: .268 BA (365 AB), 14 HR, .820 OPS, 52 BB, 112 K
2026 minors: .264 BA (231 AB), 14 HR, .911 OPS, 43 BB, 69 K

Charlie Condon had a multi-week run in my Five on the Verge earlier this year before falling on hard times toward the end of April, but I’m here to report he’s out of the doghouse, having homered six times in his past eight games at Triple-A. His plate discipline is excellent, and his exit velocities are strong, but you’ll notice I haven’t moved him back into my Five on the Verge. That’s mostly because I don’t see a place for him in the Rockies lineup now, even though he’s capable of manning first base and both outfield corners. TJ Rumfield, Troy Johnston and Jake McCarthy probably aren’t core building blocks for the Rockies, but they’re performing well enough to retain their jobs. An injury could open the door for Condon, of course, but for now, I’d say there’s no hurry to stash him in redraft leagues.

Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners

2025 minors: .241 BA (490 AB), 32 HR, .858 OPS, 83 BB, 169 K
2026 minors: .242 BA (227 AB), 20 HR, .902 OPS, 32 BB, 76 K

My opinion of Lazaro Montes has run hot and cold over the course of his minor league career, with me thinking he was undervalued early on but perhaps a little overvalued in more recent years. His move to Double-A seemed at first like it might be the lethal blow for his swing-and-miss issues, seeing as he was batting .211 as recently as June 1, but he’s brought that mark up to .242 with a massive June that’s seen him hit .346 (18 for 52) with eight home runs. 

The 21-year-old’s tendency to miss on pitches in the zone could pose a particular challenge as he ascends to the majors, but he seems to be making rapid progress at Double-A and has earned the right to test himself at the next level.

Eli Willits, SS, Nationals

2026 minors: .299 BA (214 AB), 10 HR, 33 SB, .964 OPS, 44 BB, 59 K

The first overall pick in last year’s draft has done a great deal to justify the Nationals’ choice already, but most telling may be his move up to High-A just over a week ago. In only six games there, Eli Willits already has four home runs and four stolen bases, having walked more times (six) than he’s struck out (five). The speed isn’t really a surprise, but his power seemed like it might need to develop over time. Instead, he’s already clobbering High-A as an 18-year-old, which puts him in a strong position to reach the majors before age 21. There’s a good chance he’ll be regarded as the top prospect in baseball before then.

Josiah Hartshorn, OF, Cubs

2026 minors: .316 BA (206 AB), 13 HR, 5 SB, 1.014 OPS, 42 BB, 43 K

I wrote a week ago that Josiah Hartshorn was looking like one of this year’s biggest prospect breakthroughs, already meeting his power projection at age 19 while demonstrating better bat skills than expected. Well, he’s only gotten hotter since then, batting .448 (13 for 29) with five home runs in his past eight games. He’s beginning to attract attention even in non-prospect circles and has already climbed into the top 100 on most national lists.

His strikeouts have finally surpassed his walks, but aside from his raw power and ability to pull the ball in the air, Hartshorn thrives on his selectivity. 

“Growing up, I always swung at everything in BP, which helped me understand what I can and can’t drive. Or what I can foul off or can’t foul off,” Hartshorn recently told MLB.com. “For me, the strike zone isn’t necessarily the swing zone. Instead of worrying about ball or strike, it’s more about if I can or can’t drive it.”

Owen Ayers, C, Cubs

2025 minors: .238 BA (231 AB), 6 HR, 7 SB, .761 OPS, 31 BB, 63 K
2026 minors: .326 BA (193 AB), 17 HR, 5 SB, 1.117 OPS, 36 BB, 58 K

Selected in the 19th round of the 2024 draft, Owen Ayers was thought to be a glove-first option behind the plate for the Cubs, standing out in particular for his ability to gun down baserunners. But the 25-year-old has exploded as a hitter this year, putting up massive numbers between High-A and Double-A. His past 11 games, all at the higher of those two levels, have seen him hit .568 (25 for 44) with four homers and 10 doubles. So what’s the catch? Well, like I mentioned, he’s 25. Few genuine prospects are still toiling in the minors at that age, and fewer still have yet to progress to Triple-A. Still, Ayers legitimately impacts the ball well, and his defensive ability alone should earn him a look in the majors at some point. There is such a thing as a late bloomer.