If you’re looking for someone to make dramatic changes to their rankings early in the Fantasy Baseball season, you’re subscribed to the wrong newsletter.
I did a big rankings update Wednesday for my Week 4 Trade Value chart, and I’m still not ready to make too many big moves yet. The most notable might have been Yordan Alvarez jumping to just outside of the overall top 15, though that’s as much about him gaining outfield eligibility as it is about his hot start – the question for Alvarez was never performance, but health, and nothing we’ve seen so far could possibly answer the “will he stay healthy?” question.
There are some other injury-related fallers like Mookie Betts and Brent Rooker, and Ivan Herrera made a big leap after moving out of UT-only purgatory and adding catcher eligibility. But outside of those cases, there just aren’t many players who have done enough to move more than, say, a round in my estimation of them among higher-drafted players. But there is one notable exception: Reds first baseman Sal Stewart.
Stewart was a popular breakout candidate coming into the season, and I had him ranked around 175th. For someone who tends to be pretty conservative with players with limited track records, I felt I was being pretty aggressive there. Now I don’t think it was aggressive enough, as I’ve moved Stewart up to 134th overall in my Roto rankings, a nearly four-round jump from where I had him before. Among first basemen, that actually didn’t move Stewart up in the rankings at all – he was kind of in a tier of his own, ahead of the likes of Christian Walker and Spencer Torkelson, but well behind the likes of Michael Busch and Yandy Diaz at the low-end of the starting tier at the position. He’s still behind those guys – I haven’t lost faith in Busch despite his frigid start – but he’s gaining on them. And fast.
Put simply, Stewart is showing very few weaknesses as a hitter right now. He ranks in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and barrel rate, as well as more outcome-focused metrics like expected batting average and expected wOBA. And he’s doing that while hitting the ball consistently in the air and without serious contact issues – in fact, his 16.7% strikeout rate is downright excellent, and it’s associated with pretty solid underlying plate discipline metrics, like a 58th percentile chase rate and 61st percentile whiff rate. He’s making an above-average amount of contact, and he’s doing significant damage while doing so. Add in his excellent home park, and well, that’s how you get to seven homers and a .323/.434/.726 line through the first 18 games of the season. Add in last season’s 18 games, and he has 12 homers and a .291/.373/.641 line in his MLB career.
What’s not to like?
Well, it’s 18 games. Okay, include last season, and it’s 36 games. That’s a tiny sample size. It’s not necessarily a meaningless sample size, but it’s small enough that weird, flukey things can happen. This time last season, Jonathan Aranda had the highest wRC+ in baseball, and Cedric Mullins and Jung Hoo Lee were both top 10. Weird things can happen in sample sizes measured in weeks.
Of course, that same stretch last season also showed Tyler Soderstrom, George Springer, Ben Rice, Michael Busch, and Geraldo Perdomo were all top-20 hitters, a sign of their impending breakouts. At least in 2025, the unexpected top-20 hitters batted well over .500 in terms of predicting breakouts. That’s not a bad rate, even if I don’t necessarily think it’s all that meaningful.
Still, a hot start isn’t always just a hot start, and in Stewart’s case, I am inclined to believe in it. It helps that I had some faith in Stewart coming in, especially after his 20 homers and .309/.383/.524 line across Double-A and Triple-A last season. There’s real pop here combined with at least pretty good contact skills, and we’re seeing all of that play out at the major-league level. You can poke some holes in his game, certainly – he doesn’t optimize his swing for power, with six of his seven homers going the opposite way and just 10.6% of his batted balls in general going in the air to the pull side. That’ll tend to lead to an underperformance of underlying power metrics, though in Stewart’s case, Great American Ballpark’s friendly dimensions could help overcome any limitations in that regard.
So, yeah, it looks like all systems go for Stewart. If I’m a bit more conservative in my ranking of him, I still think he’s a must-start first baseman – and he recently received a start at second base, so gaining eligibility there could be a huge boon. Even if he doesn’t, I think you’re thrilled to have Stewart on your team, and you’d need something like a top-8 to 10 round pick to move him in a trade right now. And with how good he’s looked, you might regret that, even.
Now, let’s get to everything else you need to know from Wednesday’s action around MLB:
Thursday’s top waiver-wire targets
Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Wednesday’s action:
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Astros (44%) – We’re always chasing upside at starting pitcher, and Arrighetti sure showed that in his first start of the season. Sure, it was just about the softest landing spot possible facing the Rockies away from Coors Field, but 10 strikeouts in six innings doesn’t happen by accident. The four walks weren’t great, and the matchup allowed Arrighetti to mostly just spam curveballs in two-strike counts, accounting for nine of the 10 strikeouts and 16 of his 20 whiffs. Which mostly just tells me, yeah, he won’t get 10 strikeouts every time he goes out there. Duh. But Arrighetti showed significant potential during the second half of 2024 and never really got the chance to build on it during an injury-wrecked 2025 season. He’s going to get that chance now, and I like what we saw in his first time out.
Abner Uribe, RP, Brewers (60%) – The Brewers acknowledged after Tuesday’s blown save that they might have to pull Trevor Megill from the closer’s role, and when they took the lead in the eighth, it was Uribe who came out of the bullpen for the ninth. And it was an uneventful frame, as Uribe retired the side in order on 12 pitches for his first save of the season. I’m not 100% certain the Brewers are going to just move away from Megill for good, but his margin for error is nonexistent now, and if you’re speculating for saves, Uribe should be more or less a must-roster pitcher until this one settles out.
Sam Antonacci, 2B, White Sox (27%) – We ended up having to wait exactly one day for Antonacci’s debut, after reports this weekend indicated he would be called up Tuesday. He was in the lineup batting fifth and playing second base Wednesday, but I suspect we’ll see him at a couple of different spots around the field for the White Sox – in Triple-A this season, he saw time at second, third, and in left field, and he’s spent time at shortstop and first base before, too. Antonacci has shown a phenomenal approach at the plate, sporting a 14.1% strikeout rate to a 15.1% walk rate across 63 games in Double-A and Triple-A, to go along with 26 steals. The power is a question mark, but we’ve seen signs of him figuring that out since his stint in the Arizona Fall League last year, too. The high-end outcomes could look something like Nico Hoerner here, and even if he doesn’t get quite there, Antonacci should be targeted in most Roto leagues at least.
Adrian Del Castillo, DH, Diamondbacks (4%) – I’ve never given up on Del Castillo. He had a very interesting cup of coffee back in 2024, when he hit .313/.368/.525, and while that was inflated by an unsustainable .352 BABIP, his career .292/.381/.535 line with 32 homers in 158 career Triple-A games suggests there is something here. With Gabriel Moreno on the IL for the Diamondbacks, he has an opportunity to play right now, and he was actually hitting cleanup Wednesday, going 2 for 5 with a homer and a triple in a five-RBI game. He’s DH-only now but needs just two more appearances at catcher to qualify there, and he could be useful in two-catcher leagues when he qualifies.
Chad Patrick, SP, Brewers (45%) – Patrick is off to a confounding start. Two earned runs allowed in 19 innings of work with just nine strikeouts to seven walks through four starts screams “regression.” But I don’t think it’s quite so simple. He’s pitching well, as shown by how he is limiting hard contact, including just six hard-hit balls out of 20 balls in play Wednesday. And the low strikeout rate is weird because he’s doing a decent job of missing bats, including a 10.6 swinging strike rate that isn’t far off from the league’s 11.0% mark. Is he not getting strikeouts because he’s generating early outs with weak contact? Is that sustainable? Can he find more strikeouts and a more sustainable way to get outs moving forward? I actually think the skill set is there for Patrick to nudge the strikeout rate closer to average. The profile might scream “sell,” but I actually don’t mind him for next week’s two-start tilt against the Tigers and Pirates.
Wednesday’s standouts
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers vs. NYM: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – The scoreless streak came to an end, but Ohtani continues to look like an absolutely dominant starter. It was good to see him look like this after the HBP the other day, and his stuff looked as filthy as ever, with Ohtani generating 22 swinging strikes on 95 pitches. In leagues where you can take full advantage of his pitching stats, I think Ohtani is at least a top-20 SP, and the only reason he’s not higher is the limited volume with the six-man rotation.
Kyle Bradish, Orioles vs. ARI: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Well, this is certainly not how we expected Bradish’s season to go. With this start, everyone’s favorite breakout pitcher is up to a 5.49 ERA through his first four starts. The 21 strikeouts are decent for 19.2 innings, but not enough to overcome how poorly he has pitched otherwise. What’s gone wrong? Well, the control is the first place to start, as he has as many walks (10) in 19.2 innings to date as he did in 32 innings last season. There’s been some bad luck in there, too, with an inordinate amount of hits on balls that probably should have found gloves – including one that literally bounced off the left fielder’s glove for a double. I don’t want to write it off entirely as bad luck – Bradish’s velocity has been down overall and really fell off Wednesday after he came out hot, but I don’t think what we’ve seen so far suggests he can’t live up to our expectations. I’m certainly not dropping him or anything.
Jesus Luzardo, Phillies vs. CHC: 5.1 IP, 12 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Yeah, that’ll happen. Maybe he was tipping pitches. Or maybe this is just something you have to live with from Luzardo from time to time. When he’s on, Luzardo is often unhittable, and we don’t have the usual red flags in the profile we usually point to when things go sideways for him, such as declining velocity. The truth is, he’s just an unusually volatile pitcher for someone of his talent level, and these stretches are probably just a fact of life when you roster him. If you can’t handle the ups and downs, it’s fine to get off the ride, though I’d wait until we get a few excellent starts to try shopping him. The way things go, you’re likely to get one or two of those starts very soon.
Shota Imanaga, Cubs @PHI: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K – We saw some reasons to be optimistic about Imanaga this spring, but we can also point to at least a few other pitchers who have flopped after promising springs. But Imanaga has looked awesome after getting his velocity back up to where it was (arguably even higher) than it was in 2024, and this was one of the best stats of his MLB career. He generated 26 swinging strikes in this one – the most by any pitcher in a game so far this season – including a whopping 14 with the splitter. It’s sure starting to look like Imanaga’s struggles last season were the result of that hamstring injury that landed him on the IL last May. Take away his starts after that IL stint, and Imanaga has made 40 starts in the majors with a 2.85 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, and a 25% strikeout rate to a 4.9% walk rate. I’m still skeptical he’ll be quite that good moving forward, but that’s what the upside scenario looks like.
Connelly Early, Red Sox @MIN: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – The control had been a bit shaky for Early through the first three starts, so it was nice to see him show a little better this time around. Otherwise, he has mostly come as expected, and now has a 2.53 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 39 innings across his first four MLB starts. He won’t sustain that kind of strikeout rate moving forward, but I do view Early as more or less a must-start pitcher moving forward, with top-30 upside if he irons out the control issues.
Seth Lugo, Royals @DET: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Long-time readers of the newsletter will know I’ve never been a huge believer in Lugo. But, as always, context is important. When people were insisting we had to treat Lugo as a top-20 starting pitcher, I just couldn’t get on board – his kitchen-sink approach and excellent control were useful, but he never missed enough bats to be a true ace. But even I was surprised at how little interest there was in him as a bounce-back candidate this season, with his ADP sitting around the 350th player in drafts this spring. He’s looking a lot like he did back in 2024 right now, and while I definitely don’t expect that to continue manifesting in a sub-2.00 ERA (I’ll take the over on a 3.50 mark, personally), I do think he’s back to being a very useful Fantasy option. If you’re in one of the 22% of CBS Fantasy leagues where Lugo isn’t rostered, go change that.
Emerson Hancock, Mariners @SD: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Hancock lowered his arm slot, added some cut to his fastball, and it has helped turn him into a much more effective pitcher than he’s ever been. There’s still the whole “is it sustainable?” question he needs to answer, but the four starts we’ve seen from him so far this season are by far the most interesting he’s ever looked at the MLB level. It’s not all fastball, though, as Hancock’s breakout has come with a renewed emphasis on his sweeper, and he generated eight of his 10 swinging strikes with those two pitches Wednesday. I don’t think he’s suddenly an ace, but with a great home park and solid supporting cast backing him up, I do think Hancock has moved firmly into “must-roster” territory – and with a likely two-start week coming up against the Athletics at home and the Cardinals in St. Louis next week, I do think you can view him as a must-start for that double-dip.
Carmen Mlodzinski, Pirates vs. WAS: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – I’m gonna be honest: I don’t really see much worth getting excited about here beyond the 1.77 ERA. It’s about an average strikeout rate and walk rate without much real swing and miss upside, so despite the hot start, Mlodzinski just looks like a streamer to me. I don’t mind using him for the two-start week in Texas and Milwaukee next week, but I wouldn’t be particularly excited about him in a Roto league.
Dustin May, Cardinals vs. CLE: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Here’s my problem with May: Even the good starts are just … fine. He rarely pitches deep into games, he doesn’t miss as many bats as you would expect for how good his stuff looks, and that has been true for more or less his entire career. This is another case where the upcoming schedule – @MIA, @PIT – looks enticing enough to justify using him as a streamer, but I don’t expect May to have much long-term appeal.
Bryce Elder, Braves vs. MIA: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I’ve asked some variant of this question in multiple arenas now, but: How long would Elder have to pitch well for me to buy into him even a little bit? He had a few stretches of similar quality to his current one last season, but the 5.30 ERA speaks for itself. He’s made some tweaks to his arsenal that have seen the strikeout rate rise and walk rate fall, and his 2.78 FIP through four starts suggests this may not be a fluke. I don’t buy it, and I think next week’s two-start schedule could be a trap. But he’s making me look foolish so far.
Simeon Woods Richardson, Twins vs. BOS: 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – There was some hope for Woods Richardson after he closed out last season strong while riding increased splitter usage, but he hasn’t shown much of anything through his first four starts. He looks like an easy drop.
News and notes
Juan Soto has started a running progression. He’s working back from that calf strain and is probably still a couple of weeks away, but moving in the right direction at least.
Nick Pivetta has been diagnosed with a right flexor strain. Manager Craig Stammen believes that Pivetta is looking at “weeks, maybe months” of rest and rehab. For what it’s worth, Pivetta did end up missing just one month with a flexor strain in April of 2024, but given the comments here, I’d expect a longer layoff this time.
Dave Roberts verified that Edwin Diaz was available on Wednesday. Apparently, he’s been dealing with a minor right knee issue.
Gerrit Cole will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Friday. He recently built up to 42 pitches over three innings in a simulated game, and I’d guess he’ll make at least four or five starts before they activate him from the IL.
Emilio Pagan played catch on Wednesday and would not categorize his hamstring tightness as an injury. Hopefully, he’s good. If not, Tony Santillan is the name to look at here in the short term.
Blake Snell tossed a live BP on Wednesday. He got up to 31 pitches over two simulated innings and is probably still looking at a June return from his shoulder inflammation.
Carlos Rodon will join Double-A and face hitters in a live BP session on Saturday. He might be on a similar timetable to Cole.
Trey Yesavage made another rehab start at Triple-A on Wednesday. He struck out five while allowing three runs in 4.1 innings, and his velocity was down 1.4 mph on his fastball. I’m not too concerned about that yet, but it’d be nice to see him sitting in the mid-90s by the time he makes his way back from that shoulder issue, which should be within the next couple of weeks.
Ketel Marte was back in the lineup after missing Tuesday with lower-back tightness.
Jorge Polanco was not in the lineup Wednesday night due to renewed pain in his Achilles.
We finally got an update on Jorge Soler. His suspension was reduced to four games, and he began serving that on Wednesday. He’ll be back in the lineup later this week.
Troy Johnston left Wednesday’s game after getting hit by a pitch on his right leg. Just something to watch because if he has to go on the IL, it might mean Charlie Condon time.
The Brewers are expected to push Kyle Harrison’s start back a few days due to knee and wrist issues.
It turns out Martin Perez will start Friday for the Braves. There was some speculation that Didier Fuentes or JR Ritchie would make that start, but it’ll be Perez instead, which is less fun.
The Padres are expected to activate Matt Waldron and have him start this weekend against the Angels.
Another pitcher down for the Astros: Cody Bolton to the IL with mid-back inflammation.
