How much impact can one bad start have? It’s a worthwhile question after Garrett Crochet, your likely first-round pick, put together one of the worst starts of the young season Monday, surrendering 10 earned runs over 1.2 innings against the Twins.
Let’s do a quick exercise. I’m going to take Crochet’s fourth start from last season – an 11-strikeout gem during which he pitched into the eighth inning – and replace it with Monday’s outing and see what kind of impact that has on his season-long numbers:
- 2025: 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 205.1 IP, 255 K, 18 wins
- 2025 w/ Monday’s start: 3.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 199.2 IP, 244 K, 17 wins
I mean, look, that’s still an awesome season. But it takes Crochet from sixth in the majors in ERA to 14th; it takes him from eighth in WHIP to 17th. That’s a pretty massive impact! You’d still take it from your Fantasy ace, especially when it comes from the league leader in strikeouts and the third-most wins in the majors. But would you take it from your first-round pick?
This is one of the downsides to playing in a season-long Roto league. In a H2H league, this start from Crochet might ruin your week; in a traditional Rotisserie league, you’re going to be feeling the effects of this one for a long time. Even if Crochet is exactly what you expected him to be from here on out, your team is going to be just that much worse the rest of the way.
Of course, the obvious question you’re asking here is: “Will Crochet be exactly what you expected him to be the rest of the way?” This is the kind of start that raises such questions, even for an ace like Crochet. This is the kind of start that isn’t supposed to happen to an ace like Crochet, right? Well, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw have never had starts where they allowed 10 earned runs, but it did happen to Max Scherzer in 2014, and it didn’t end up being a sign of things to come – he would go on to put up a 2.58 ERA over his next 18 starts to close out another top-five Cy Young finish.
I’m sure I could find other examples of an ace having a start like this, but I think that one proves the point well enough: A start this bad does not necessarily mean Crochet is finished as an ace. To use a lower-level but even more extreme example, just last season, Jesus Luzardo had a two-start stretch where he was tagged for a whopping 20 runs, and he went on to post a 3.57 ERA over his next 19 starts. His final ERA was pretty ugly (another win for H2H players!), but I think everyone would agree those starts didn’t wreck Luzardo, who was a must-start pitcher after that.
It depends on why the start happened. In Luzardo’s case, he was tipping pitches. If there’s an explanation like that for Crochet, I’d love to hear it, because it would make it even easier to write it off. But even if the answer is just something along the lines of, “He just had the worst day of his career,” I’d be inclined to believe Crochet will shrug this one off. Where it gets thornier is if Crochet isn’t healthy, but for his part, both Crochet and manager Alex Cora insisted after the start that he is healthy, despite his velocity being down about 1.5 mph across the board.
There is one thought that sticks in my mind here, though: There were some warning signs that Crochet wasn’t quite right going back to the spring. Not the results, though they were poor. No, I’m referring to the fact that Crochet was pretty vocally frustrated about the state of his arsenal, especially his four-seamer, which he couldn’t get the feel for. Crochet hasn’t seemed quite right for the past month, in other words.
But it’s not like the four-seamer failed him Monday – everything did! Maybe this is all connected. Maybe his attempts to rediscover his fastball have led to mechanical issues that have the entire arsenal messed up. For what it’s worth, Crochet’s arm angle has dipped down to 30 degrees this season from 38 degrees in 2024 and 35 degrees in 2025. That’s not a huge change, but it could be a sign that his mechanics or release are a bit off in a way that led to his struggles.
Or maybe he just had a bad start. He probably just had a bad start. I can’t say he’ll be himself moving forward, but unless there is some kind of injury we don’t know about here, I’m very strongly inclined to continue believing in Crochet. If you’re selling, I’m buying. So, don’t sell. He’s earned the benefit of the doubt, despite how ugly this start was.
Now, let’s get to everything else you need to know from Monday’s action around MLB:
Tuesday’s top waiver-wire targets
Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Monday’s action:
Justin Wrobleski, SP, Dodgers (14%) – I suppose I have to write about a guy coming off eight innings of two-hit ball, especially if that guy has the Dodgers’ supporting cast backing him up. But I’m not actually all that excited about Wrobleski, even coming off such a strong start. He struck out just two batters while sitting at 93.5 mph with his four-seamer – down 2.5 mph from where he was last season, when he at least flashed some strikeout upside as a multi-inning reliever. Tasked with more of a traditional starter’s role this season, he has just six strikeouts to five walks in his first 17 innings. It was a great start, and those of you who took the flyer for the two-start week were rewarded. But I don’t really see much reason to think he’s about to be much more than a fringe Fantasy option at best.
Angel Martinez, 2B, Guardians (47%) – I don’t really believe in Martinez. He’s had some interesting stretches in the majors before, but it never lasts, which is what you would expect for a guy who usually puts up mid-.700s OPS marks in the minors. But he’s not totally without merit. He makes a good amount of contact, and he does a good job elevating the ball to the pull side to get the most out of his middling raw power. And hey, maybe that raw power might be a little more than “middling” these days – he’s already hit six batted balls with a higher exit velocity than any he hit all of last season, including a 108.9 mph single Monday, one of five hard-hit balls in that game. Like I reported, I don’t really believe there’s an impact bat here, but I’m more intrigued than I expected to be when I dug into the numbers.
Rece Hinds, OF, Reds (6%) – We’ve done this before with Hinds, who has big raw power and flashed it in a very brief major-league cameo in 2024. The problem, as you can surely guess, is the ability to make enough contact to get to the power consistently – we’re talking about a career 31.3% strikeout rate at Triple-A, which is just hard to make work even with elite power. His plate discipline has been significantly better at Triple-A so far, including a very solid 85.1% zone contact rate. You should be skeptical, but with the Reds getting nothing from their outfield so far this season, there’s at least a chance Hinds could bash the door down.
Jeremiah Jackson, 2B, Orioles (3%) – With Jackson Holliday struggling on his rehab assignment as he recovers from a broken hamate bone, the Orioles have already reported he won’t be activated this week. That gives Jackson a bit more runway to play, and he took advantage Monday with a two-homer game while going 3 for 4. He’s hitting .318 with three homers on the season, and while the plate discipline (11 strikeouts to zero walks) leaves much to be desired, there’s some real pop here. In deeper leagues, he’s worth a look as a middle infielder or fifth outfielder.
Kirby Yates, RP, Angels (28%) – Just when I finally dropped Yates. He’s working his way back from a spring knee injury and should go out on a rehab assignment in the coming days, and the timing might be perfect, as Jordan Romano imploded Monday night, giving up three runs without recording an out to blow the game against the Yankees. Romano hadn’t given up a run prior to that, but it’s not like he’s been untouchable – he has seven strikeouts to four walks in five innings of work while sitting another mph down on his fastball. I’m not saying Romano lost his job Monday, but it might not take much for Yates to get back into this conversation.
Wednesday’s standouts
George Kirby, Mariners vs. HOU: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Kirby isn’t missing a ton of bats right now, but that’s about the only knock you can have on him. His control has been typically excellent outside of one three-walk start (for him, that’s a Nolan Ryan-esque bout of wildness), and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his first four starts. I’m not sure I buy Kirby as a true ace until he rediscovers some strikeout upside, but the floor remains extremely high here.
Eury Perez, Marlins @ATL: 4 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – By the Stuff+ model on FanGraphs, Perez has had arguably the best stuff of any starter in baseball, and he’s also had some of the worst command of any starter. By my proprietary Eye Test model, that makes perfect sense. Perez has the raw ability to dominate, and he doesn’t even turn 23 years old until tomorrow, so I’m just going to keep betting that he’ll eventually iron out the rough edges enough to become an impact starter. But if you want to sit him for his next start until we see some signs of it, I won’t argue with you.
Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers @SAC: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Given his age and history of inconsistency, it wasn’t totally unreasonable to be worried about Eovaldi’s slow start to the season. But with two strong starts (featuring 14 strikeouts in 13 innings while allowing two runs) in a row, I think the buy-low window just slammed shut.
Gavin Williams, Guardians @STL: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I still don’t really buy Williams as an impact starter, so I’m still viewing him as a sell-high candidate despite an ERA below 3.00 stretching back to last summer. Like Perez, he’s got good (though I’d argue worse stuff), and he has terrible control (including a massive 20.9% walk rate through his four starts). Get those trade offers out now while you can, because I still don’t buy him as anything more than a volatile SP4 for Fantasy.
Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks @HOU: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – He’s just so weird. You’re not supposed to be able to succeed in the majors by spamming four-seamers all day anymore, but here is Nelson, getting away with it again. His limited approach might help explain why we haven’t seen him finish the sixth inning yet, and I don’t really buy Nelson as a must-start pitcher (except where he has SPaRP eligibility). But I’m happy to keep riding him until it catches up.
Bailey Ober, Twins vs. BOS: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I mean, the strikeouts are nice. But he’s still sitting below 90 mph with his four-seamer and giving up tons of hard contact, hence the four runs allowed. Ober is clearly in streaming territory at this point, and while I don’t hate the next matchup against the Reds away from Cincinnati, he’s fringe even there.
Mike Burrows, Astros @SEA: 6 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Burrows’ fastballs are just so bad. It doesn’t really matter which flavor of fastball you’re talking about; both the four-seamer and sinker get hit hard, and that was the issue here, as he allowed an average exit velocity near 100 mph across both pitches in this one. The changeup is awesome, but I just don’t know if it’s going to be enough for Burrows, who looks pretty droppable at a 60% roster rate right now.
Grant Holmes, Braves vs. MIA: 4 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Manager Walt Weiss reported he took Holmes out after just 59 pitches because he had been taxed in his previous start, where he threw 99 pitches. It kind of feels like Holmes has Drew Rasmussen’s workload limitations without Rasmussen’s outrageous efficiency. He’s not useless, certainly, but my interest in Holmes at this point doesn’t really extend much beyond his next start or two. And seeing as he’s facing the Phillies in both, I don’t think we need to keep Holmes around in all leagues at this point.
Cade Cavalli, Nationals @PIT: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – I had some mild hope for Cavalli coming into the season, but the command has been bad, and the strikeouts still aren’t there. He’s an NL-only piece at this point.
News and notes
Jeremy Pena was placed on the 10-day IL with a Grade 1 right hamstring strain. That helps clear up the infield logjam for the Astros.
Tatsuya Imai went on the IL with right arm fatigue. That’s frustrating for those of you who dropped him before you could slide him into an IL spot, but I still want to hang on to him to see if he can figure things out. It helps if I can do that in an IL spot. The Astros recalled Colton Gordon and JP France to replace Imai – notably, they didn’t promote Spencer Arrighetti, who has been very good in Triple-A to open the season. I still suspect we’ll see him soon, but Gordon is expected to start Tuesday against the Rockies.
Gerrit Cole threw three simulated innings and 42 pitches in a live session Sunday. It sounds like he could be ready for a rehab assignment soon, and a mid-May timetable for his return from Tommy John surgery continues to look reasonable.
Carlos Rodon threw a 50-pitch live batting practice session Monday. The next step is to either throw one more live BP or begin a rehab assignment as he continues to work his way back from elbow surgery and a hamstring injury. I’d bet on him making his debut ahead of Cole, but it’ll probably be close.
Anthony Volpe will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Tuesday as he works his way back from offseason shoulder surgery. I would expect him to get at least 10 games on the rehab assignment before getting the call, but we should see Volpe back soon, where he’ll likely return to the starting shortstop spot (moving Jose Caballero to his more natural utility role).
Dave Roberts reported that he expects Edwin Diaz to pitch during their upcoming series against the Mets. Diaz reported he’s feeling great despite the velo being down, so hopefully we start to see some improvement here.
Max Muncy (of the Athletics) left Monday’s game after getting hit by a pitch on his hand in the 5th inning. He was diagnosed with a bruise, so hopefully, we’re looking at just a short-term absence for one of the bigger breakouts to date.
Wyatt Langford was out of the lineup again Monday due to that right quad strain. It was his third game missed in a row.
Matthew Boyd is on track to rejoin the Cubs’ rotation early next week against the Phillies.
Ryan Pepiot threw a 25-pitch bullpen on Sunday. He could be cleared for a rehab assignment later this week. He’s on the IL with the right hip.
Bryce Miller threw a bullpen Sunday that apparently went very well. He’ll be re-evaluated by the training staff this weekend as he works his way back from an oblique strain. I still think there’s some bounce-back potential here.
Jared Jones made use of all of his pitches during his most recent live batting practice session. He’s working his way back from elbow surgery and is probably looking at a June return.
The Blue Jays acquired Lenyn Sosa from the White Sox in exchange for outfielder Jordan Rich and a player to be named later or cash. I find this one curious for the White Sox, but it could be an avenue to opening up a roster spot for Sam Antonacci, who we’re still hoping can make his MLB debut sometime soon.
Cade Povich was optioned to the minors after a strong start Sunday. Dean Kremer was called up and started Monday, where he struck out nine in five innings of work while leaning on his splitter more. It was a nice start, but I need to see more before I view Kremer as anything more than a streamer.
Ryan Mountcastle was placed on the 60-day IL due to a fracture in his left foot. As a result, the Orioles acquired Christian Encarnacion-Strand in exchange for cash. He probably won’t matter for Fantasy, despite the distant glow of name value.
