Did we get out over our skis with Payton Tolle after his debut?
It’s possible! I was pretty much ready to declare him as a top-40 starter in baseball after his 11-strikeout effort against the Yankees last week, with the only real hold-up coming from concern about whether he would stay in the rotation or not. But even with those concerns, I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, ranking him as the equivalent of a top-55 starter when I updated my rankings last week.
It was only one start, but it was the most impressive debut by any pitcher in 2026 so far. And it came from one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and it all looked for real – the guy with one of the best fastballs in the minors came up, faced a good lineup, and dominated them with a fastball-heavy approach.
But it was only one start. If you’ve learned anything from subscribing to this newsletter, where I break down the most notable performances from around the league every morning, it should be that any major-league pitcher is capable of looking great for one night. These guys are all outrageously talented, and what separates the stars from the also-rans isn’t the ability to put together one great game; it’s the ability to do that over and over.
Didn’t we all learn as kids that anyone is capable of doing something great one time? (Am I aging myself with this reference? If you’re under 30, don’t respond.)
Do it again, and then we’ll talk. And Tolle didn’t on Tuesday. He didn’t have nearly the same life on his pitches, dropping at least 1.1 mph in average velo across the entire arsenal, and more than double that with his three various fastball types. He still manages six whiffs on his four-seamer – that pitch is going to play at 95 or 97 – but the curveball that looked so impressive in his first start barely showed up this time around, and he just didn’t have enough, ultimately finishing with three runs allowed while walking four and striking out four in 4.2 innings of work.
Of course, that’s not a disastrous start if that’s what it looks like when Tolle doesn’t have it. And it’s not like the first start was the outlier for his velocity – Tolle was at 96.6 mph in Triple-A before his promotion, making Tuesday’s 94.9 mph average the outlier. I expect Tolle to be a lot better than this moving forward, barring some unmentioned injury.
But this start does seem to increase the risk that Tolle won’t stick around in the rotation when Sonny Gray is eligible to return around the end of the first week of May. His margin for error was already pretty slim, given the mild nature of Gray’s hamstring injury, and it looks a lot slimmer today. Another start like this might earn Tolle a trip right back to Worcester.
But that isn’t a guarantee, either. Tolle’s start was bad, sure, but it was still better than what Brayan Bello has given them this season. And, while Connelly Early’s 2.84 ERA is solid, he hasn’t been pitching deep into his games and has a 5.05 xERA and 4.61 FIP, so it’s not like he’s been flawless either. Tolle is probably more likely to be demoted than either of those two when Gray is ready, but he also should get one more start to prove himself, and I still think Tolle is talented enough to force the Red Sox’s hand here.
But it isn’t a guarantee now. And this could all end with him back in Triple-A this time next week. I’m still hanging on to Tolle, but this was certainly a discouraging performance, there’s no doubt about it.
Here’s what else you need to know about from Tuesday’s action around MLB:
Wednesday’s top waiver-wire targets
Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Tuesday’s action:
Louie Varland, RP, Blue Jays (71%) – Yeah, he’s just the closer here. I think in the long run, the Blue Jays would love to have Jeff Hoffman get back in the ninth inning because they prefer to have Varland and Tyler Rogers as the super-flexible linchpins in the bullpen. But there’s one problem with that plan: Most teams are reluctant to go away from successful closers, even if their preferred option is waiting in the wings. And Varland is looking like the type of reliever who might just run away with the job, as he struck out three for another save Tuesday. Hoffman has pitched better since his demotion, but I think Varland is going to have to fail to lose this job, and he hasn’t shown much sign of failure over the past year or so.
Elmer Rodriguez, SP, Yankees (17%) – Rodriguez got less hype this spring than rotation mate Carlos LaGrange, but Rodriguez is probably the better pitching prospect. The 22-year-old draws comps to former Yankee Michael King with his east-west approach to pitching, and he’s already found success at Triple-A this season, putting up a 1.27 ERA in 21.1 innings of work. He hasn’t put up huge strikeout rates at Triple-A, but he did have a 14% swinging strike rate last season, so there’s some upside here. But in all likelihood, we’re looking at potentially an above-average strikeout rate with decent control and very good groundball rates, which all should add up to a pretty good pitcher, if not an ace. The problem is that his time in the rotation is likely to be brief – he’ll make his debut Wednesday, but he’s likely to be sent back down pretty soon, with Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole nearing their returns – Rodon is likely two starts away, with Cole probably further out. But a lot can happen in a week or two when we’re talking about pitchers, so there’s at least a chance Rodriguez hangs around. If you missed out on Payton Tolle and JR Ritchie, Rodriguez could be worth snagging just in case in deeper leagues.
Janson Junk, SP, Marlins (8%) – Okay, that was impressive. Junk has had a pretty solid season, but his performance against the Dodgers in Los Angeles Tuesday night might have been his best yet. He shut them out over six innings, allowing just three hits and just one walk. He only struck out four and was pulled after just 76 pitches, which highlights the downsides here – he’s never likely to be a big strikeout pitcher, and the Marlins have had a remarkably quick hook with him, pulling him after just 56 pitches and five shutout innings in his previous start. The Marlins gave him a bit more leash Tuesday, and he rewarded them for it, so maybe that’ll earn him a bit more faith moving forward. Given the limited strikeout potential (despite increased velocity this season), he’ll need to go six innings consistently to have much Fantasy appeal. But he’s always had exceptional control, and he’s been missing barrels extremely well so far this season, too. I’m skeptical it’ll keep working with Junk finding a bit more swing and miss, but I’m willing to roll the dice on him as a two-start pitcher next week, even with one of the matchups likely to come against the Phillies.
Tyler Phillips, RP, Marlins (1%) – I made no attempt to try to figure out who the Marlins might turn to after Pete Fairbanks’ injury Monday night because, well, there wasn’t an obvious option. The entire bullpen outside of Fairbanks has been pretty rough this season, so I figured I’d just let the Marlins tell me who they wanted to use. And, at least for the first opportunity, it was Phillips. If you want your closer to be a super-intense dude, then Phillips fits the bill, at least. And to his credit, he does have a 2.56 ERA since the start of last season, albeit without a ton of strikeout ability and poor peripherals to back it up. I don’t have a ton of confidence in Phillips taking this job and running with it, but if you’re desperate for saves, he’s the first one worth a look in Miami’s bullpen.
Tanner Scott, RP, Dodgers (72%) – I do want to point out one thing with regards to Scott, who got the first (and so far only) post-Edwin Diaz save last week: They haven’t necessarily been using him as a traditional closer since. Granted, there haven’t been a ton of opportunities, but since pitching in the ninth inning of a tied game last Friday, Scott has appeared in consecutive games Monday and Tuesday in the seventh inning. While trailing. I’m not saying that means Scott won’t be the closer – he faced the top of the lineup and at least one lefty each time – but it’s curious usage if he is the closer. I still think he’s the most likely guy to get the next save (unless it’s Wednesday, I guess), but it’s not a lock.
Edouard Julien, 2B, Rockies (11%) – Julien was one of those guys I was pretty interested in as a deep sleeper coming into the season, and he’s kind of making it work. After going 3 for 4 with his second homer Tuesday, he’s now hitting .308 with an .842 OPS. His counting stats aren’t great because he hasn’t started against a lefty, but 13 runs and 12 RBI in 19 starts isn’t bad for a deep-league option. You probably only have interest in daily lineup leagues, but he could be pretty useful against righties, at least.
Tuesday’s standouts
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers vs. MIA: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – There’s some interesting stuff going on with Ohtani’s usage, and it’s not all great news for Fantasy. For the second time, the Dodgers kept Ohtani out of the lineup on a day when he was starting, and unlike the previous time, it wasn’t because he was feeling less than 100% after being hit by a pitch. This time it was because Ohtani was pitching on five days’ rest, something Ohtani has only done twice since coming off the IL last season (and both were off very short appearances). He has a stated goal of competing for a Cy Young this season, and the Dodgers may be trying to accommodate that by being a bit less generous with his time off between starts – the way it has gone this season, he mostly hasn’t qualified for the ERA leaderboard because of how few innings he is throwing. Getting him an extra start here and there could help alleviate that issue, but it comes with an additional downside for Fantasy, because it might come with more days off as a hitter. It’s not likely to cause a huge dent in his value, but even taking 5% of the games off as a hitter is a big deal when you’re talking about a guy who was likely taken No. 1 overall.
Logan Gilbert, Mariners @MIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – It’s been a bit of a strange start for Gilbert, who has finished six innings just twice in seven starts. That was an issue for him last season, but I just chalked it up to the time he missed with an elbow injury. The strikeout rate remains lower than it has been since 2022, and he just hasn’t quite looked as sharp as I expected. That’s not to say he’s been bad or will be bad – he has a 3.31 FIP and has only really had one (maybe two) bad start so far. But he’s working through some arsenal changes, and I don’t think he’s quite figured it out yet, either. I view Gilbert as a buy-low candidate if there’s a window, but I would like to see a few dominant starts in a row to really feel like he’s going to be an ace.
Cam Schlittler, Yankees @TEX: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – We’re reaching the point where these kinds of starts are just becoming unremarkable for Schlittler. It’s still a relatively small sample size of this level of dominance, but Schlittler’s triple-fastball combo just looks overwhelming right now. If I have any concerns, it’s that he might not remain an elite strikeout pitcher, but it’s not a take I have a whole lot of confidence in. He just looks like an ace.
Jesus Luzardo, Phillies vs. SF: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Yeah, I mean, that’s Jesus Luzardo for you. It’s why you can’t bench him, no matter how many ugly starts he gives you in a row, because the Random Number Generator always comes back around to dominance, usually without much warning. He’s a frustrating pitcher to roster, there’s no doubt about it. But you should have known that before you drafted him and just accounted for the ugly stretches.
Joe Ryan, Twins vs. SEA: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Ryan continues to throw his four-seamer a bit less than normal lately, a curious move given how good that pitch usually is for him. And it’s not like he’s been getting crushed with it, though he did only get two whiffs with it Tuesday. That makes me nervous, especially since it coincides with his four-seamer velocity being down around 1 mph from last season. Outside of the fastball, there isn’t anything especially worrying in Ryan’s profile, but it doesn’t worry me nonetheless. He’s still probably a top-24 starting pitcher, but I’m not as confident in him as a top-15-ish guy.
Chase Burns, Reds vs. COL: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – There was a little bit of concern about Burns at the end of Spring Training, and then a dip in his strikeout rate after a few starts might have spooked some of you. But he has bounced back with 17 strikeouts in 11.2 innings over the past two starts, which is enough to assuage any concerns I might have had (which were never especially big, to be clear). There will be times when Burns’ limited arsenal catches up to him, especially at home as the weather warms up. But he’s going to miss enough bats to remain a must-start pitcher, I’d bet.
Jose Soriano, Angels @CHW: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – For the first time this season, Soriano’s command faltered on him Tuesday. He kept the walks under control as well as he could, but there were just too many non-competitive pitches from him in this one, either fastballs way too far to the arm side or curveballs sailing off the plate glove side. The splitter still looked awesome, and he still managed 19 swinging strikes even in a game where he wasn’t at his best, so we’ll take the positive signs and keep holding steady. I do think there’s some sell-high appeal with Soriano, just because I don’t quite buy that he’s made the leap to consistent, projectable ace production forever. But I’m not expecting the bottom to fall out, either.
Edward Cabrera, Cubs @SD: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – For some reason, Cabrera entered Spring Training talking about wanting to throw his extremely mediocre four-seamer more, and then he came out in his first three starts and followed up on that plan. That was alarming because his success last season came from burying the four-seamer in his arsenal. The good news is he’s back to that approach, and his fortunes have followed, with Cabrera walking just three hitters over the past three starts after walking nine in his first three. The results still aren’t ideal (three runs in each of the past three), but the process looks much better, and that’s what matters in small samples.
Kris Bubic, Royals @ATH: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – Bubic’s stuff still looks great, but his command remains shaky, and he has now walked at least three in five of his first six starts. That’s frustrating, though the results have been strong enough that I’m not too worried about it. He has to pitch better than this to remain a must-start pitcher, but I haven’t lost faith in him figuring it out.
Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates vs. STL: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Ashcraft just got hit hard in this one, allowing seven hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 95.8 mph. That’s never really been an issue for him in the majors before this, and there wasn’t anything about his pitch mix or velocity that really stood out to me Tuesday, so I’m willing to give him a mulligan for this one. Ashcraft doesn’t have the longest track record of success, so he hasn’t earned an endless amount of grace. But given how well he was pitching prior to this, I’ll certainly give him one, especially when he was still missing bats.
Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks @MIL: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 1 K – Sometimes, otherwise very good pitchers struggle with injuries during Spring Training and never figure it out. Sometimes, very good veteran pitchers just lose it and never get it back. Maybe that’s what’s happening with the 35-year-old Kelly, who was sidelined to open the season with nerve irritation and back pain. The nerve issue is especially concerning because that is the kind of issue that can limit a pitcher even if he is otherwise healthy. I’m concerned. But given how good Kelly has been for years, I’m not going to panic-drop him yet, either. Just sit him out and hope for better days.
Clay Holmes, Mets vs. WAS: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I really don’t buy it, but Holmes is off to another good start. He couldn’t sustain it last season, and I suspect the same thing will happen before long here. But he’s throwing a lot of strikes lately, which combines with his groundball-heavy tendencies to overcome his usually mediocre strikeout numbers. In a season where not much else has gone right for the Mets, this has, and he’s worth keeping in your lineup for his next start against the Angels later this week.
Shane Baz, Orioles vs. HOU: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I’ve been pretty critical of Baz this season, but this start doesn’t really make me regret it. The problem for Baz has never been the presence of or potential for good starts. The problem is that he’s never really shown any ability to string good starts together for more than a few chances at a time, and nothing about his first month with the Orioles indicates that has changed. He’s not a must-drop pitcher, by any means, but he’s not must-roster either.
Davis Martin, White Sox vs. LAA: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Martin is definitely an improved pitcher. He’s gone from a very poor strikeout pitcher to potentially an average one, despite only having one really above-average swing-and-miss pitch. And he’s managed to dramatically improve his control, which feels like it might be more sustainable than the strikeout rate jump; none of the changes to his arsenal (more sinkers, cutters, and curves) seems likely to lead to significantly more strikeouts, but I could buy them leading to better control. Add it all up, though, and I think he’s mostly improved to just being an average-ish pitcher, but certainly not one who is likely to sustain anything like a sub-2.00 ERA. In fact, if you added two runs to his current 1.95 mark, I might still take the over. He’s a viable two-start option against the Angels and Mariners next week, but there’s real risk that he wrecks your ratios in Roto leagues, too.
