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The New York Giants, anything but a juggernaut NFL offense since the Eli Manning days, seem to have built something quite intriguing and potentially magical with QB Jaxson Dart, RB Cam Skattebo and WR Malik Nabers. The problem is that those young players — two of them NFL first-round selections — were barely on the field together last season (18 snaps), and those concerns continue in 2026.
This is also the problem for fantasy managers considering early investment. We crave availability and covet statistics, but these promising Giants are question marks for the former and thus no lock to produce the latter. It seems trite, but availability really is the best ability. We don’t get asterisks for missing the fantasy playoffs because potentially great players missed several games.
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Such is the risk that comes with securing these otherwise talented players, and because this is one of the NFL’s higher-profile teams in its largest city (well, pretend it is New York City and not East Rutherford, New Jersey), value often becomes distorted. Nabers, the LSU product who dominated his rookie season (catching 109 passes for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns), played only four games last season. He is the biggest question mark as he recovers from multiple surgeries on his right knee. His status for September action is still uncertain.
Uncertain is a big problem for fantasy football, and as we welcome everyone to yet another NFL season and the newest (and often misunderstood) “Do Not Draft” list, the caveats in place bear remembering. Value is the key for fantasy drafts, especially in relation to average draft position (ADP) and expected statistical production. Few wide receivers offer the upside of Nabers, while Dart and Skattebo appear special as well. We all see it. The question is whether they are potentially special enough for this fantasy football season to warrant their lofty ADPs. It is a tough case to make.
Nabers was seriously injured in Week 4 last season, suffering ACL and meniscus tears, and ordinarily, there would be relative confidence in him returning to full strength before the start of the following season. However, Nabers needed a follow-up procedure in the spring to remove scar tissue. The Giants have stated the right things, claiming patience and optimism for a full recovery, but rumors of Nabers missing time at the beginning of the season still persist, even though he did not begin training camp on the PUP list. The Giants were noticeably active this offseason in adding depth to their wide receiver group.
Judging Nabers as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver — which was his initial ADP until recently, and it hasn’t fallen far — is dangerous. If one cannot properly define what someone’s ADP should be, that’s a decent indicator it shouldn’t be too high. There is major risk with Nabers. The statistical upside we saw two seasons ago is immense. It isn’t as immense, broadly speaking, for Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens, Davante Adams of the Los Angeles Rams, Ladd McConkey of the Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos newcomer Jaylen Waddle, among many other WRs expected or hoped to be WR2 options, but safety and security matter, too.
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With Dart and Skattebo, the upside is similarly inspiring, but these fellows must be out there on the field to achieve it. Dart, a late-first-round NFL draft selection in 2025, started 12 games, showing far more promise as a runner than as a pure passer. He missed multiple games with a concussion, and his occasionally reckless style makes him a prime candidate for more missed games. Quarterback is a deep position in traditional 10- and 12-team leagues. Perhaps the upside of Dart is worth it, but few could argue that Chargers starter Justin Herbert, among several examples, isn’t safer.
Speaking of recklessness, Skattebo, chosen in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL draft, became a fantasy star quite quickly, ramming into and through overmatched defenders to score seven touchdowns in eight games. He sure had the look of an RB1 option with high volume. Then it ended in Week 8 with a dislocated ankle. Skattebo might be a star, just like his offensive teammates.
The pieces are in place for the Giants. It seems so obvious. Keeping everyone — anyone? — healthy is another matter. Then again, very few want to see backup QB Jameis Winston handing footballs off to Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary and throwing downfield to Darnell Mooney and Darius Slayton. Few offenses feature as much boom-or-bust injury potential.
Here are other players I keep ignoring in myriad — and I mean myriad — mock drafts and real leagues this summer. Remember, none of this means Nabers will not be a productive player, just that the value in drafts is off. The Do Not Draft list is about fading players in relation to (over)popularity. Let’s go!
Keeping with tradition in this space, Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen again gets featured because he tends to be the first QB off the fantasy draft board. Allen has finished among the top two QBs in fantasy scoring for six consecutive seasons. Nobody can match his production and durability. He is awesome! Still, is that worth a second-round pick in standard fantasy leagues (10 teams, one active QB)? I can’t do it. The position is deep; opportunity cost matters. Give me all the productive RBs and WRs early, and one of several productive QBs much later. Sorry, Josh. It isn’t you. It’s me (and in this case, it is true).
Drake Maye of the New England Patriots launched himself into stardom with 4,394 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 450 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Only Allen scored more fantasy points among QBs. Maye is 23. What about him could possibly scare us? Check New England’s schedule. Maye didn’t face a top-10 defense during the regular season. He will face a bunch of them this season. Expect production, but a repeat of 350 fantasy points? I’m fading top QBs anyway, and this great one stands out — but perhaps only for this season.
Jayden Daniels dazzled as a rookie, but injuries put a damper on his sophomore campaign. Lee Coleman/Icon SportswireThe Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels could not replicate his stunning rookie season in which he was a top-five fantasy QB. He played in only seven games last season, succumbing to injuries to a knee, wrist, hamstring and elbow. We love the running QBs when they are playing. Daniels, much like Dart with his immense tools, possesses a seemingly unlimited statistical ceiling, but the injury risk is real.
Always beware of the rookies. Las Vegas Raiders building block Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, might be a fantasy star in September if he pushes aside Kirk Cousins, or he might sit for months. He has little place in a standard fantasy draft (one QB, 10 teams) this season.
For deeper formats, perhaps Indianapolis Colts reclamation project Daniel Jones really is recovered from a torn Achilles, but we cannot expect pristine efficiency or rushing touchdowns come September.
Many fantasy managers overrate Green Bay Packers starter Jordan Love. There’s a reason the Packers limit his passing attempts to fewer than 30 per game. Don’t assume this will change. Love’s low volume — he doesn’t run much, either — limits him in fantasy.
Do not speculate on the Cleveland Browns’ passers in fantasy. It’s just not worth it.
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San Francisco 49ers star Christian McCaffrey won Comeback Player of the Year honors, playing in all 17 games and easily leading the sport with more than 400 fantasy points. Congrats to him and those who invested! I didn’t expect that, so I missed out. It was almost like the 49ers rostered McCaffrey in fantasy and were intent on him carrying their teams. It was wild. McCaffrey consumed more than 900 snaps and 400 touches, and I am going nowhere near him again in 2026.
Running backs are mortal, especially this one who has demoralized fantasy managers in multiple seasons. Running backs cannot handle workloads to this degree in consecutive seasons. In fact, since 2000, there have been 13 instances of a running back logging 400 carries in a season (including playoffs), and none was among the top 10 RBs the next season. Saquon Barkley failed in 2025 (we were right about him, at least). This is a telling stat. McCaffrey, now 30, played all the games last season. It hardly means he can repeat the achievement. The 49ers will be far more cautious.
New Kansas City Chiefs starter Kenneth Walker III comes off being named the Super Bowl MVP with the Seattle Seahawks, and most everyone presumes his best seasons are pending. Perhaps, but the Seahawks knew what they had in Walker, and he never finished better than 15th at RB in fantasy scoring during his four seasons. Even last season, Walker ranked 20th in rushing attempts as the Seahawks aimed to avoid injury until leaning on him in January. The Chiefs seem unlikely to make Walker a major part of the passing game. This one is about value: Walker in the third round is a bit much, at least for me.
Kyren Williams has 44 touchdowns in the past three seasons, but his volume took a dip in 2025. Jordon Kelly/Icon SportswireLos Angeles Rams backup Blake Corum averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his second NFL season. Starter Kyren Williams, with double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of the past three seasons, is going early in Round 5 in ESPN leagues. Perhaps Williams can sustain his production even as Corum continues to ascend, but it is likely Williams will take a statistical step back. Be careful about assuming Williams is a safe RB2 option again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter Bucky Irving starred as a rookie. His second season looked quite different. It is easy to blame it all on a shoulder injury that cost him nearly two months, but Irving rushed for one touchdown in 10 games, averaging 3.4 yards per rush. The Buccaneers signed Kenny Gainwell, an accomplished pass catcher (73 receptions in 2025!) who averaged 4.7 yards per rush with the Steelers. One can reasonably debate whether Gainwell simply outscores Irving this season, making Irving’s sixth-round ADP while Gainwell goes in Round 13 feel silly.
TreVeyon Henderson of the Patriots enters his second season with fantasy managers craving investment, even though productive veteran Rhamondre Stevenson remains very much involved in the offense. In fact, Stevenson, a power runner who can pass block, was the team’s preferred choice during its January playoff run. As with Tampa Bay’s Irving, this doesn’t mean Henderson will disappoint in fantasy, but volume is critical in player evaluation, and it sure seems like the Patriots will share it in their backfield. Stevenson is the value pick multiple rounds after Henderson.
I don’t think we can assume that the Carolina Panthers will give Jonathon Brooks major volume, as the 2024 second-round pick barely played his first two seasons as he recovered from multiple knee tears, but there is enough doubt to worry about Chuba Hubbard being a safe RB3. Perhaps fading both of them is the play.
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New Orleans Saints acquisition Travis Etienne Jr. comes off his best season, but we must be wary of volume concerns. Alvin Kamara, one of the top pass-receiving RBs ever, is still here, and he caught 68 passes in 14 games two seasons ago. Etienne is not productive as a goal-line runner, and he is not catching six TDs again (he caught one in his first three seasons). I don’t see a safe RB2 here.
Tennessee Titans starter Tony Pollard will likely fall short of his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season. He’s neither terribly efficient nor much of a pass catcher, and the Titans must do better. Again, perhaps Pollard is merely your flex option, but I’d prefer to aim higher.
Chiefs starter Rashee Rice is more than an injury risk. He is a “games” risk. Rice has played in only 12 games the past two seasons, with injury and suspension derailing him, and if we must guess which narrative is a bigger problem moving forward, that is quite telling. Rice spent a month of his offseason knee surgery recovery in jail. When he is on the field, Rice is a statistical star, but we cannot presume anything close to 17 games considering his history. This is an unreliable player for you to use your second or third pick on.
Perhaps you heard the news! The Patriots acquired former Philadelphia Eagles star A.J. Brown to be the No. 1 WR the offense lacked. I dunno, it was rarely discussed this offseason. Choose your reason for why Brown looked to be in decline last season other than a target-forced three-game stretch in November. He wasn’t happy in Philadelphia. He might not be happy facing a tough schedule with the Patriots that is littered with shutdown cornerbacks. Draft Brown, of course, but not among the top 10 fantasy WRs.
Are fantasy managers hitting the button on Marvin Harrison Jr. prematurely in drafts? Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn ImagesArizona Cardinals disappointment Marvin Harrison Jr. might blossom one of these seasons, but we must stop blaming the organization or his quarterbacks for his ordinary numbers. Some still invest in Harrison because he was the No. 4 pick in the 2024 draft, and how can anyone with that pedigree not be truly awesome? Well, we are seeing it. Draft Harrison, but not as a definite WR2.
If you must guess which Jacksonville Jaguars WR is going to be the most relevant — three or four of them go in similar, albeit potentially bargain, ADP range — that’s usually a strong indicator to avoid them all. So I will. Especially the one who might play more snaps on defense.
Rookie WRs look good on fantasy draft day in comparison to boring, uninspiring veterans because they haven’t failed yet. They rocked in college and went in the early rounds of the NFL draft. The 2025 draft featured WRs Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden, Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden III, Tre’ Harris and Jack Bech in the top 60. Two of them finished among the top 50 WR scorers. While I kind of like Carnell Tate and Makai Lemon, they will be overdrafted, and so will Jordyn Tyson, KC Concepcion, Omar Cooper Jr., Denzel Boston and Germie Bernard. What’s so wrong with veterans Wan’Dale Robinson, Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston instead?
Good for Atlanta Falcons starter Kyle Pitts Sr. The No. 4 pick from the 2021 draft finally delivered a notable and valuable season when he was running out of time to do so, and fantasy managers loved him. They are making him a top-five TE in current drafts. Should they? Pitts finished second at the position in fantasy scoring, but more than 21% of his season point total came in one glorious Week 15 performance. He averaged barely 10 fantasy points the rest of the season and scored two touchdowns. Atlanta’s QB situation is … less than ideal. I tend to wait at tight end anyway, but especially here.
On an offense that struggled at times, especially in throwing downfield, Eagles starter Dallas Goedert caught 11 of the team’s 26 TD throws. The 31-year-old caught 12 touchdowns during the prior four seasons combined, with some of that time lost to injuries. That’s another point. Goedert isn’t durable, and he likely isn’t coming close to double-digit TDs again.
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