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How likely is a side finishing eighth to be promoted?

Kieffer Moore of Sheffield United looks dejected at full-time following theChampionship Play-Off Final match between Sheffield United and Sunderland in 2025Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Sheffield United lost the 2025 Championship play-off final despite finishing 14 points ahead of opponents Sunderland

Since the Championship play-offs were tweaked in 1989 to only include the teams finishing third to sixth, the side coming sixth has been promoted just seven times.

Three of the first six (Crystal Palace, twice, and Blackpool) were immediately relegated.

Hull City’s promotion last season made them the seventh and came as something of a surprise – they were the first sixth-placed outfit to go up for 16 years.

Between them, Wrexham and Derby managed only three wins in 16 games against the sides who qualified for the play-offs last term. That ratio would appear to make it unlikely either would have gone all the way in the post-season competition.

Prior to the new season, the lowest play-off spot available was in League Two with seventh enough to sneak in.

But the seventh-placed side has only gone up seven times from 38 attempts. Championship sides will also face that extra one-off game before the semi-finals.

Despite the odds being against seventh or eighth actually winning promotion, there are still reservations about even allowing them to compete.

Lyle Taylor, a play-off winner with Nottingham Forest, Charlton Athletic and AFC Wimbledon feels it is rewarding mediocrity.

“If you’re talking about going down to eighth, you could have a team with 10 or 11 fewer wins than the one finishing third,” he told the BBC podcast 72+.

“Are you therefore deserving of being in the same post-season competition as that team? No, this is a meritocracy isn’t it?”

Former Huddersfield Town play-off winner Tommy Smith added: “I get that it gives more teams a chance to compete, but I can’t help feeling some of the teams who end up competing could have a chance of getting to the Premier League over a team which finishes third and amasses an enormous amount of points.

“I think back to Sheffield United just missing out on the automatics and then losing to Sunderland in the play-off final (having finished 14 points ahead of them in 2024-25).

“I don’t know how that sits with me, a team finishing eighth could be in the Premier League over a team finishing third.”

Fighting relegation & trying to make the play-offs?

Nigel Clough in a black coat looks towards the cameraImage source, Shutterstock
Image caption,

Nigel Clough says you might have teams battling relegation and still in with a chance of a play-off spot at the back end of the season

At the 2026-27 EFL season launch in Manchester, several EFL players and managers gave their thoughts on the change.

Nigel Clough, manager of League One side Mansfield Town, expected the format to be used in League One and League Two in future seasons, but was not keen on the expansion.

“If you come third and are 20 points away from eighth and in the same competition for the last few games, that does seem a little bit unfair, but it does keep the season alive for so many teams,” he mentioned.

“With how close League One was last year, you could be fighting relegation and trying to make the play-offs at the same time. How far do you take it?

“There must be a reward for your 46 games. I know there is for the top two, but maybe going to top eight is a bit far for my liking because if you are the third-best team after 46 games you should get some reward.”

Derby striker Rhian Brewster, whose side finished eighth in the Championship last season, mentioned: “It will be good as some teams will have slow starts and kick on and could have a chance of getting in the play-offs this year and going up.

“It is going to be harder but you could be near the bottom and go on a run and finish eighth or seventh. You want to finish first or second, but if you end up in the play-offs then win the play-offs.”

Burnley and former England defender Kyle Walker played in the 2009 Championship play-off final.

He was featuring for Sheffield United, who had finished third in the league, and they lost 1-0 in the Wembley final to Burnley.

He was in favour of the new format and mentioned: “I think it’s good, more chances for more people, but first of all you don’t want to be involved in the play-offs.

“I’ve been involved in it and it’s a roulette, anything can happen. Make sure you make a gap between first, second and let the rest deal with it themselves.”

Blackburn manager Tony Mowbray scored in the 2000 Championship play-off final as his Ipswich Town side beat Barnsley 4-2 to win promotion into the Premier League.

“I think it’s good and keeps the dreams alive for fans and a lot of football teams. You could be sitting 10th, 12th or 14th but still be three points off the top eight and two wins back-to-back and you can catapult yourselves in,” Mowbray mentioned.

“People have to dream, they have to have a reason why they want to go and believe they can still do it. For me, it’s only positive. The argument is you could have a team finishing eighth and getting promoted, but good luck to them.

“Sunderland when they scraped through the play-offs [in 2025], Coventry in the semi-finals over two legs were the better team but Dan Ballard got them through with a header right at the death.

“Then, at Wembley, Sheffield United might have been the better team over 90 minutes and they [Sunderland] got there. Then they spent £180m and are now playing in Europe so it can happen to any team.”

‘Eighth is a realistic target’ – Mousinho

Portsmouth boss John Mousinho in a blue short-sleeved polo top applauds fans after a game at Norwich CityImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Portsmouth boss John Mousinho hopes the change in format will not ‘dilute’ the play-offs

The new format means one third of the Championship will be able to point to some sort of ‘success’, be that automatic promotion, going up via the play-offs, a Wembley appearance or just a top-eight finish.

It could heap even more pressure on managers (there were 13 managerial changes in the division last season) and on owners to invest more money in pursuit of the Premier League riches.

“It depends whether it dilutes it too much and, all of a sudden, the side that finishes eighth and maybe is a long way off the side that finishes third ultimately gets a chance to go into the Premier League and what knock-on affect that has,” Portsmouth boss John Mousinho told BBC Radio Solent.

“It’ll be very interesting to see if and when that does happen.”

Sheffield United’s poor start to last season saw them lose eight of their opening nine matches but, following the reappointment of Chris Wilder, they were 15th, within nine points of the top six and, perhaps more pertinently only three short of eighth, with 11 games remaining.

Mousinho thinks the Blades are an example of what the extension of the play-offs can offer for those who might have previously started planning for the next campaign.

“For sides competing at the top of the bottom half currently, or who maybe want to compete and get in the top half, it’s a good thing because eighth is a realistic target whereas sixth previously was a bit of a leap,” he mentioned.

“The acid test will be if a side does finish seventh or eighth and is maybe a long way off the top four but does get promoted to the Premier League.

“In other leagues I think you can bridge the gap a bit more easily, but in the Championship to the Premier League there is a big gap there.

“I’m sure if a side does do it there’ll be no complaints but it’ll be a good one to keep an eye on.”

Related topics

  • Championship
  • Football
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  • Bolton Wanderers
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  • Burnley
  • Cardiff City
  • Charlton Athletic
  • Derby County
  • Lincoln City
  • Middlesbrough
  • Millwall
  • Norwich City
  • Portsmouth
  • Preston North End
  • Queens Park Rangers
  • Sheffield United
  • Southampton
  • Stoke City
  • Swansea City
  • Watford
  • West Bromwich Albion
  • West Ham United
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers
  • Wrexham

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