Baseball’s annual amateur draft begins this Saturday, July 11, and will continue into Sunday. Future All-Stars will be selected this weekend. Possibly a future MVP or Cy Young winner. And maybe in 30 years, we’ll watch someone who hears his name called this weekend deliver a Hall of Fame induction speech in Cooperstown. The White Sox won the draft lottery and hold the No. 1 pick this year. The Rays, Twins, Giants, and Pirates round out the top five in that order. Here’s how you can follow this weekend’s draft:
| Day | Time | Picks | TV and streaming |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Saturday |
1 p.m. ET |
1-10 |
NBC and Peacock |
|
Saturday |
2:30 p.m. ET |
11-40 |
MLB Network, MLB.com, and MLB.tv |
|
Saturday |
4:30 p.m. ET |
41-135 |
MLB.com and MLB.tv |
|
Sunday |
11:30 a.m. ET |
Rest of draft |
MLB.com and MLB.tv |
Saturday will cover the first round, Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, Competitive Balance Round A, the second round, Competitive Balance Round B, the first free-agent compensation round, the third round, the fourth round, and the second free-agent compensation round. Got all that? The rest of the draft, rounds 5-20, will be held on Sunday. There will be 614 picks made this year.
Although player development is better than ever, the MLB draft is not about instant gratification. Even the best prospects disappear into the minors for a year or two, and most draftees will spend much longer in the minors before reaching the show (if ever). Given the changes MLB has proposed, this may be the last draft under the current rules. It could look much different next summer.
Here now are the five most important storylines to follow during the draft this weekend.
1. Who will be the No. 1 pick?
The White Sox hold the No. 1 selection and it is a near certainty they will select one of three players: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson, or Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. Cholowsky is the consensus No. 1 prospect in the draft class, though Emerson is right there with him. Either is worthy of the No. 1 pick. Lackey is a terrific prospect in his own right, but he is seen as the third-best player in a draft with three elite prospects.
On one hand, Cholowsky and Lackey project to zoom through the minors quickly, and would help an up-and-coming White Sox team in short order. On the other hand, Emerson is believed to have the greatest upside and projects to be the better player long-term. The MLB draft is unpredictable, and there’s always a chance the White Sox go off the board and take someone else, but it is a good bet they’ll use the No. 1 pick on Cholowsky or Emerson, with Lackey a longer-shot candidate.
2026 MLB Mock Draft: Complete first-round projection as White Sox take UCLA star at No. 1
Mike Axisa
2. Will the Rays opt for the franchise catcher?
It goes back far beyond passing on Buster Posey with the No. 1 pick in the 2008 Draft (they took Tim Beckham instead). The Rays have never had anyone close to a franchise catcher in their 29 seasons. Among primary catchers, Jose Molina is Tampa’s all-time leader with 7.4 WAR. Toby Hall (4.2), Mike Zunino (4.1), and Wilson Ramos (3.0) are the only others to reach even 3.0 WAR. The Rays have been searching for a legitimate No. 1 catcher, a true franchise building block, since Day 1 of their existence.
Assuming Cholowsky or Emerson is the No. 1 pick, the Rays will have the opportunity to select Lackey at No. 2. With a pick as high as theirs, you have to take who you consider the best and most talented player, regardless of position. It’s difficult to predict this sport two or three months into the future. It’s impossible to predict your roster needs in two of three years. If the Rays like Cholowsky or Emerson more than Lackey, they could pass on the high-end college catcher just like they did in 2008.
3. Which team in the top 10 will surprise us?
The Royals (No. 6) and Athletics (No. 8) are the best bets to throw the draft’s first curveball and make an off-the-board pick. Kansas City has a Competitive Balance pick (No. 30). They could take a lower-ranked player at No. 6, sign him to a below-slot bonus, then use the savings on a high-end talent that falls to No. 30. They did this in 2021. The Royals took Frankie Mozzicato at No. 7, paid him about $2 million below slot, then used the savings to go over slot for Ben Kudrna (No. 43) and Carter Jensen (No. 78).
As for the A’s, they tend to march to the beat of their own drum on draft day, and hey, it works for them. They went against the consensus for Nick Kurtz (No. 4 in 2024) and Jacob Wilson (No. 6 in 2023). It sounds silly now, but there were concerns about Kurtz’s contact rates in college. Wilson had detractors because he’s such an unorthodox hitter. If the A’s make an off-the-board pick, it will likely be because they like the player more than everyone else, not because they’re playing bonus pool games.
4. Where will Bell and Bumila land?
Based on talent, Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell and Massachusetts high school lefty Brody Bumila are two of the 10-15 best players in this year’s draft class. Bell is a switch-hitting shortstop with power, good defensive chops, and strong leadership skills. Bumila is a 6-foot-9 southpaw who has hit 101 mph this spring. Those are two skill sets that typically do not last long on draft day.
For lack of a better term, Bell and Bumila are damaged goods, however. Bell tore the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder while making a diving play in Kentucky’s season opener. He missed three weeks, then returned and played through it the rest of the season. Bell performed very well (.323/.510/.608 with nine homers in 41 games), but labrum tears are a serious injury. MLB Pipeline says he will need surgery, which will sideline him for several months and could cut into his 2027 season.
Bumila recently injured his UCL and is facing Tommy John surgery, according to The Athletic. He had the internal brace procedure last year, returned this spring and pitched well, and now his UCL is damaged again. Elbows are generally fixable and teams are willing to roll the dice on pitchers facing or rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the draft, though Bumila has torn his UCL twice now, and he’s still in high school. That creates serious questions about his long-term durability.
Bell is still expected to be a high pick despite his injury, perhaps even inside the top 10. It’s possible he’ll take a below-slot signing bonus because it’s better for him financially to sign below slot inside the top 10 than to sign for slot later in the first round. Bumila is likely to fall out of the first round. Teams with extra picks via free-agent compensation or competitive balance will be best positioned to take the risk and roll the dice. The Braves, Cardinals, Giants, and Red Sox could be candidates.
5. Will there be a last-minute trade?
Competitive Balance picks are extra picks given to baseball’s 10 smallest-market and 10 lowest-revenue teams. Those two groups have some overlap, so there are 15 Competitive Balance picks this year, not 20. These are also baseball’s only tradeable draft picks. They can be traded once each and five of this year’s 15 Competitive Balance picks have already been dealt:
Competitive Balance Round A
29. Giants (from Guardians in Patrick Bailey trade)
30. Royals
31. Diamondbacks
32. Cardinals
33. Rays (from Orioles in Shane Baz trade)
34. Pirates
35. Yankees (first-rounder pushed back by competitive balance tax penalties, not tradeable)
36. Phillies (first-rounder pushed back by competitive balance tax penalties, not tradeable)
37. Rockies
Competitive Balance Round B
67. Red Sox (from Brewers in Kyle Harrison/Caleb Durbin trade)
68. Cardinals (from Mariners in Brendan Donovan three-team trade)
69. Tigers
70. Reds
71. Marlins
72. Cardinals (from Rays in Brendan Donovan three-team trade)
73. Athletics
74. Twins
The pick to watch is No. 34. The Pirates are reportedly open to trading their Competitive Balance pick to improve their MLB roster. These picks are usually traded as part of a larger deal, so it can be difficult to gauge their value, though the Rays traded the No. 37 pick to the Orioles for reliever Bryan Baker last summer. Baker had three additional years of control and is an All-Star this year.
If another Competitive Balance pick will change hands this year, it needs to happen very soon. The draft is on the horizon.
