For those interested in MLB betting and prop betting for home runs, Monday’s 10-game baseball slate is loaded with opportunities. SportsLine expert Jacob Fetner has locked in his best home runs picks for Monday, April 13 and his home run picks were up 50 units a season ago.
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Best Home Run picks for Monday
- Brandon Lowe, Pirates (+550)
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+498)
- Drake Baldwin, Braves (+450)
Brandon Lowe, Pirates (+550, DraftKings)
Lowe is batting .282 with a .907 OPS against right-handed pitchers dating back to last season, with 31 of his 36 home runs against righties. He has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Cade Cavalli. Lowe has homered twice over his last 10 home games, and Pittsburgh’s ballpark is hitter-friendly which adds to the appeal. We set Lowe’s line at +265 to go yard, so getting +550 represents significant value.
Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+498, DraftKings)
Alvarez has the platoon advantage against the right-handed George Kirby. He has been on a tear, hitting three home runs over his last 10 road games. He’s also been making excellent contact, batting .375 over his last 10 games.
Left-handed batters have had some success against Kirby, hitting .257 with a .713 OPS against him dating back to last season, including 12 home runs in 376 plate appearances. Kirby has allowed nine home runs over his last eight starts at home. While Alvarez has not had a ton of success in his career against Kirby, we are going with a “he’s due” approach, considering how well he’s been swinging the bat. We set Alvarez’s line at +309 to homer, so +498 is strong value here.
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Drake Baldwin, Braves (+450, FanDuel)
We set Baldwin’s line at +406 to hit a home run on Monday. Baldwin has the platoon advantage against right-handed Eury Perez and he’s batting .271 with a .825 OPS against right-handed pitchers dating back to last season. Baldwin has 12 home runs in 266 plate appearances at home with a .845 OPS dating back to last season.
Perez has been struggling lately with a 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts while Baldwin is seeing the ball well lately, batting .357 over his last 10 games. Perez has allowed 10 home runs over his last eight starts on the road, and allows 0.67 HR per nine innings at home compared to 1.95 on the road. Monday is a road start – Perez’s higher-HR venue. Baldwin has seen the ball well against Perez, going 2-4 with both hits being home runs.
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