There are 10 games on the MLB schedule for Monday, Aug. 10, headlined by the Tampa Bay Rays going for their seventh straight win while the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres begin a key NL series and the Minnesota Twins face the Baltimore Orioles in a series with big AL wild card implications. High-stakes matchups means plenty of opportunities for betting on baseball, especially with home run prop betting. SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has looked over Monday’s slate and provided his top home run prop bets for Monday at the best sports betting apps.
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Magliocca, also known as “Amags,” is a hugely profitable MLB handicapper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays. Here’s a look at his favorite home run props for Monday.
Best home run picks for Monday, Aug. 10
- Junior Caminero, Rays (+220, FanDuel)
- Ryan Vilade, Rays (+470, FanDuel)
- Francisco Lindor, Mets (+390, FanDuel)
- Pete Alonso, Orioles (+350, BetMGM)
Junior Caminero, Rays (+220) and Ryan Vilade, Rays (+470)
The ERA for Jacob Lopez balloons to over 6.60 when pitching in Sacramento, and he’s allowed six homers in 31 innings at home this season. He hasn’t been bad of late, with three straight starts of at least five innings and two or fewer runs allowed, but he did give up a long ball in each of the last two starts. Caminero needs no introduction or explanation, as he projects as the best overall home run pick on the board tonight, but Vilade is a name you may not have heard of before. He’s projected to hit in the heart of the Rays order tonight, and from the right side where he’s been significantly better facing off with left-handed pitchers. In the right-on-right matchup, Vilade has produced just a .215 average and three homers in 65 at-bats, but against lefties those numbers are up to .371 with six homers in 107 at-bats. He can cover everything Lopez is going to throw, and we get the best hitting environment of the night in Sacramento with hot weather and winds potentially pushing out.
Francisco Lindor, Mets (+390)
Lindor has six hits in 13 at-bats against Bryce Elder, with four of those going for extra bases and two leaving the yard. Elder has struggled with righties far more than lefties, but when the lefties have got to him, they’ve done damage. This season, Elder has allowed 11 homers to lefties despite just a .198 average, and he’s been prone to high variance in his results previously. The Braves’ righty had allowed four homers in 17 innings to begin the second half of the season, prior to his shutout performance last time out. We get some of the best hitting weather on the slate of games tonight, and at nearly 4-1 odds, I’ll take a shot on Lindor to keep things rolling in the second half of the season, where he’s hitting .267 and already has matched his five homers from the first half.
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Pete Alonso, Orioles (+350)
Alonso hit two massive home runs for the Orioles on Sunday, leading to a victory behind a double-digit run total and 15 hits. Alonso has 19 homers and is hitting .260 against right-handed pitchers this year while consistently being near the league leaders in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Dean Kremer has allowed 12 home runs in just 40 innings this year, and the Twins just acquired him from the Orioles at the trade deadline. If there’s one team that should have the blueprint on how to beat him, it’s the Orioles, and Alonso has feasted on right-handed fastballs thus far. Where he’s struggled against righties is on off-speed pitches, but the four main pitches that Kremer has been throwing are all fastballs or variations of, registering within 4-5 mph of each other. If he can hone in on a mistake pitch from Kremer, of which he’s had many this year, Alonso is one of the hot bats in this order I like to do damage.
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