At 52-51, the Washington Nationals are over .500 this late into the season for the first time since the final day of their 2019 World Series championship campaign. After five straight 90-loss seasons (and playing at a 92-loss pace in 2020), this represents real progress. CJ Abrams and James Wood are certified stars, Cade Cavalli and Luis García Jr. are breaking out, and Curtis Mead has quietly been one of the best in-season pickups of the year. Positives abound.
“Everyone in the clubhouse knows the standings,” rookie manager Blake Butera reported earlier this week (via MLB.com). “We know the trade deadline’s around the corner. It’s on TV every day. People are talking about playoffs, trade deadline, buyers, sellers, all those different types of things. And I know this is the first time in a while that this group — a lot of these guys have played meaningful baseball here late in July, hopefully going into August. We’re having fun with this.”
Another not-so-secret reason the Nationals are thriving: Foster Griffin, who spent 2023-25 in Japan and returned to MLB on a low-cost one-year contract with Washington. Griffin, who was taken by the Kansas City Royals with the No. 28 pick in the 2014 draft, pitched in the All-Star Game last week and set a Nationals record this past weekend when he allowed no more than one run in his eighth consecutive start. He’s gone at least six innings in six of the eight starts and seven innings in four of the last five.
Foster Griffin has made eight consecutive starts without allowing more than one earned run. Excluding openers, it is the longest streak of starts of one earned run or less in Nationals history (2005-pres.).
The eight straight starts matches Pedro Martinez (Sept. 19, 1996 – May…
— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) July 19, 2026
Griffin, 31 on Monday, owns a 2.68 ERA in 20 starts and 117 ⅓ innings, a top 15 total in baseball. The under-the-hood numbers aren’t as spectacular as the ERA — Griffin has a 3.97 FIP and a 3.89 expected ERA, which factors in contact quality allowed — but they’re very good, and very good is a big win for a player signed to a $5.5 million deal. Only Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez, Dustin May, and Michael Soroka have Griffin beat in WAR among free agent pitchers who changed teams in the offseason.
“I’m later in my career and it happened now. I’m super grateful for that and super proud of that,” Griffin reported following his All-Star Game selection (via MLB.com). “Just looking back at all the time and effort and work I’ve put in, it’s a huge honor and I’m excited for it.”
Foster Griffin
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Why Griffin is succeeding in MLB this time around
By no means will Griffin blow hitters away. His cutter, his most used pitch, sits right around 89 mph. His four-seam fastball is a tick higher at 91.5 mph and has topped out at 94.5 mph this season, though he hasn’t thrown a pitch over 93.9 mph since April. Rather, Griffin succeeds thanks to the sheer breadth of his arsenal. He throws seven pitches at least 7% of the time each, but none more than 33% of the time. Back in 2022, his last MLB stint, Griffin threw only four pitches.
“He’s got an arsenal that can answer almost any question,” pitching coach Simon Mathews told The Athletic in May.
Most pitchers will use three pitches against righties and maybe two against lefties, something like that, but not Griffin. He throws almost every pitch to batters on both sides of the plate and turns at-bats into an extreme guessing game. Here’s his pitch-usage:
| Overall | vs. RHB | vs. LHB | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cutter |
33% |
36% |
24% |
|
Four-seamer |
17% |
16% |
18% |
|
Sweeper |
14% |
9% |
28% |
|
Changeup |
10% |
14% |
0% |
|
Sinker |
10% |
7% |
17% |
|
Curveball |
10% |
11% |
8% |
|
Splitter |
6% |
7% |
4% |
The sweeper, sinker, and splitter were all additions Griffin made during his time with the Yomiuri Giants, when he pitched to a 2.50 ERA in 371 ⅓ innings and was named an All-Star in 2025. After three years with the Giants, Griffin opted to follow in the footsteps of Erick Fedde, Merrill Kelly, current Nationals teammate Miles Mikolas, and others, all of whom thrived overseas after stumbling early in their big-league careers, then returned to MLB and found success.
Give the Nationals a truth serum and I think they’d tell you even they didn’t expect Griffin to be this good. His success and the team’s success create an interesting question as the trade deadline approaches. Do the Nationals trade Griffin for prospects, or keep him? Keeping him could include an extension. It doesn’t have to mean watching him go out the door as a free agent in a few months.
There’s a case to be made for both approaches.
The case for trading Griffin
A lot — A LOT — of teams need pitching, and Griffin figures to be especially appealing given his contract. Trade for him right at the deadline and you’ll only owe him $1.8 million or so the rest of the year. That’s a pittance and a sum any team can afford, which will open things up to more teams. Small-market contenders can show interest in Griffin in a way they can’t show interest in Tarik Skubal, who will still have $9 million or so still coming to him at the deadline. Griffin’s contract is a major plus.
The trade comp for Griffin could be Kelly, who went from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Texas Rangers for three prospects as a rental last summer. Two of those prospects, lefties Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake, joined Arizona’s rotation not too long ago. The Griffin signing has already been an enormous win for the Nationals. Trading him for two or three prospects, including potentially near-MLB-ready pieces, could boost a farm system that has skyrocketed this year. It would turn a home run signing into a grand slam.
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According to FanGraphs, the Nationals have a 6.6% chance of reaching the postseason, which reflects the stiff competition (five NL teams are within two games of the third wild card spot) and the projections not loving Washington’s roster (mostly the bullpen, I assume). The Nationals are ahead of schedule, I think, and the plan coming into 2026 was likely to trade Griffin if he pitched well. Are the last four months really enough to deviate from the long-term plan for such small postseason odds?
The case for keeping Griffin
For starters, trade suitors won’t value Griffin as a 2.68 ERA pitcher. They’ll value him at something closer to his underlying numbers (3.97 FIP and 3.89 xERA), which are quite good but more mid-rotation starter than frontline starter. Add in the limited track record and the trade offers could underwhelm. There’s a point somewhere along the decision line where the trade return simply isn’t good enough to justify selling even with those slim postseason odds. I don’t know where that point is for the Nationals, but it exists.
Also, 6.6% postseason odds are not zero! The Nationals haven’t been to the postseason since their 2019 World Series year and the fanbase is energized in a way they haven’t been in some time. Don’t you have to honor that? I’m not saying Washington should be an aggressive buyer at the deadline, but if teams aren’t comfortable making big offers for Griffin, is it really worth moving him? Isn’t it better to keep him and try to make that miracle run to the postseason? (What were the 2019 Nationals if not a miracle run?)
Keep Griffin and it’s entirely possible the Nationals miss the postseason anyway, then lose him as a free agent after the season, in which case they had a trade asset that went unused because of the vibes. Two things about that, though. One, Griffin could be a qualifying offer candidate. It would be a huge raise if Griffin takes it (the qualifying offer will be in the $22.5 million range this winter), but it’s a one-year commitment, and Washington has little money on the books. If he declines, they get a draft pick if he leaves.
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Secondly, the Nationals could explore an extension to keep Griffin around and ensure he’ll be part of the next Nationals team that does indeed reach the postseason. Cody Ponce returned from Korea this past offseason and signed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays not long before his 32nd birthday. That seems like a pretty good benchmark for Griffin and a very reasonable sum. Even if he’s a 4.00 ERA guy moving forward, that $10 million annual salary would be below market rate.
There’s always a chance a team loves Griffin more than we all realize and offers the Nationals a significant (relatively speaking) prospect package. At that point, they would be doing themselves a disservice if they turned it down. Teams are incredibly pragmatic these days — to a fault, really. It’s more likely that the trade offers aren’t great. At that point, pivoting to an extension makes a lot of sense. You always need pitching and the Nationals know this guy well — what makes him tick, how he fits in the clubhouse, etc.
The trade deadline is 10 days away and a lot can and will change between now and then. A tough stretch could make it clear the Nationals should sell and trade Griffin for young players. Stack a couple of wins and climb further into the wild card mix, though, and keeping Griffin (and extending him!) could become a more realistic and more enticing option.
Regardless, Griffin’s return to MLB has been a smashing success. The Nationals made one of the best pitching signings of the offseason.
