Which World Cup front-runner needs its superstar more?playPredicting every Round of 32 clash at the World Cup (2:29)Mark Ogden
The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup has had the superstars turn up and perform as A-listers.
Look at the leaderboard for the Golden Boot: Lionel Messi is in first with six goals in three games. Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Erling Haaland and Vinícius Júnior are in second with four apiece. England captain Harry Kane is still in the hunt with three goals in three games, and even Cristiano Ronaldo, at 41 years old, has brought his scoring boots to the party, tallying two goals for Portugal during the group stage.
Argentina, Norway, England, Brazil and Portugal rely heavily on their star forwards and although Dembélé displayed his skill with a hat trick against Norway last Friday, Mbappé is still France’s undisputed main man.
But which team relies most heavily on its talisman? ESPN has assessed the numbers since the 2022 World Cup to find out which nation can’t survive without its star striker.
All statistics courtesy of ESPN Global Sports Research
– World Cup match schedule: All fixtures, results, features
– World Cup Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1 after group stage?
– O’Hanlon: Grades for every eliminated team
LIONEL MESSI (Argentina)
– Goals: 25
– Assists: 9
– Appearances/Starts: 30/24
– Percentage of goals: 27% (not including own goals)
CATEGORYWITH MESSIWITHOUT MESSIWin percentage83%83%Goals5835Goals allowed96Chances created259191Argentina are a one-man team, right? Messi has six of their eight goals at this World Cup — and has scored in a record seven straight World Cup games, going back to the last edition. Only Mbappé (8) scored more than Messi’s seven goals in Qatar four years ago.In 2022, Argentina won the World Cup for the first time since 1986, and Messi was their inspiration. It’s hard to imagine Lionel Scaloni’s team winning in Qatar without the contributions of the former Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain star. But even though the 39-year-old is on fire at this tournament, the surprising revelation is that Argentina’s win percentage without Messi is the same as it is with him.
Since the last World Cup, the world champions have won 83% of their games with Messi and 83% without him. They score more goals when he is on the pitch than when he isn’t — 58 to 35 — and Messi has scored 25 goals and registered nine assists in his 30 appearances since 2022, making up for 27% of Argentina’s goals.
However, the reality is that Argentina are just as formidable when Messi isn’t on the team.
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CRISTIANO RONALDO (Portugal)
– Goals: 27
– Assists: 4
– Appearances/Starts: 35/34
– Percentage of goals: 25% (not including own goals)
CATEGORYWITH RONALDOWITHOUT RONALDOWin percentage67%63%Goals6840Goals allowed2212Chances created381185OK, so if Argentina aren’t heavily reliant on Messi, Portugal are all about Cristiano Ronaldo, right?Not quite, and anybody who witnessed the Al Nassr forward’s unremarkable performance in Portugal’s 0-0 draw against Colombia on Saturday will ask why coach Roberto Martinez never seems to replace Ronaldo.
Since 2022, Portugal have won only marginally more games with Ronaldo than without him. Their win percentage with him is 67% and drops to 63% without him.
Despite the former Manchester United and Real Madrid forward’s declining powers, Portugal are statistically better when he plays. They score more goals (68/40) with him than without him and create more chances (381 /185), but they can score without him — 75% of Portugal’s goals in that time have been scored by somebody other than Ronaldo.
HARRY KANE (England)
– Goals: 29
– Assists: 2
– Appearances/Starts: 37/34
– Percentage of goals: 32% (not including own goals)
CATEGORYWITH KANEWITHOUT KANEWin percentage76%29%Goals7319Goals allowed1312Chances created351168England captain Kane is, by some distance, the most prolific goalscorer in Three Lions’ history with 82 goals in 117 appearances — 29 more than second-place Wayne Rooney. And there is no doubt that Thomas Tuchel’s team relies a little too heavily on the Bayern Munich forward’s goals: England have won just 29% of their games without Kane since 2022, but their win rate leaps to 76% when he is on the pitch.
Kane’s presence on the field clearly makes England more dangerous. They have scored 73 goals with him since 2022, but just 19 when he isn’t involved; England have also created 168 chances without him compared with 351 when he is on the pitch.
Kane has scored 32% of England’s goals since 2022, so a much higher number than Messi and Ronaldo.
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KYLIAN MBAPPÉ (France)
– Goals: 24
– Assists: 17
– Appearances/Starts: 35/31
– Percentage of goals: 24% (not including own goals)
CATEGORYWITH MBAPPEWITHOUT MBAPPEWin percentage71%50%Goals7623Goals allowed2314Chances created472154France are the favorites to win this World Cup, and that is largely due to the incredible attacking talents on Les Bleus’ squad. Dembélé, Michael Olise, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola are all top players, but Mbappé is France’s superstar, and the numbers prove it.
When Mbappé doesn’t play, France’s win percentage is just 50%. But when he plays, they win 71% of their games, and they score at a greater than 3-to-1 ratio more often when he is on the pitch.
In terms of chances created, Mbappé’s presence makes France much more formidable. They have registered 472 chances with him on the field compared with 154 when he isn’t. Still, France can score without him. Mbappé has scored 24% of their goals since 2022, proving that coach Didier Deschamps has worked out how to tap into the skills of his supporting cast up front.
VINÍCIUS JÚNIOR (Brazil)
– Goals: 11
– Assists: 7
– Appearances/Starts: 32/31
– Percentage of goals: 15% (not including own goals)
CATEGORYWITH VINIWITHOUT VINIWin percentage44%63%Goals4825Goals allowed3012Chances created269120Real Madrid forward Vini Junior is the star of Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil team, and his World Cup performances so far have justified that billing. But overall, the 25-year-old has a disappointing record with Brazil, scoring just 13 goals in 52 appearances.His international scoring rate pales in significance when compared with those of his rivals, so it is perhaps unsurprising that Brazil don’t suffer too much when Vini is not involved. Since 2022, Brazil have won 63% of their games without Vini and just 44% when he plays.But they score more goals (48/25) and create more chances (269/120) when he plays, so it seems that it is up to Vini to step it up and score more goals to give him a record more in keeping with a player of his reputation.play1:10How much more can Brazil offer in the knockouts?LAMINE YAMAL (Spain)
– Goals: 7
– Assists: 11
– Appearances/Starts: 28/23
– Percentage of goals: 6% (not including own goals)
CATEGORYWITH YAMALWITHOUT YAMALWin percentage71%75%Goals5954Goals allowed1915Chances created306322Lamine Yamal is still only 18 years old, and the Barcelona forward has already enjoyed success at the international level with Spain at Euro 2024. He has also scored at a rate of a goal every four games (7 in 28 apps) since making his debut in August 2023.
As a team that doesn’t rely heavily on a prolific goalscorer, it is difficult to quantify how much Luis de la Fuente’s squad depends on Yamal, but he is a generational talent who is likely to continue to make a significant impact for La Roja in the years ahead. But as of now, Spain win more games without Yamal than with him. Their win percentage without Yamal is 75% and drops to 71% when he plays.
They score slightly more goals (59/54) when he plays, but Spain create more chances (322/306) when Yamal is not on the pitch. Yamal has scored just 6% of Spain’s goals since 2022, but that number is obviously lower due to his arrival on the international scene only three years ago. Nonetheless, though Yamal is a big part of Spain’s attacking threat, they can cope pretty well without him.
ERLING HAALAND (Norway)
– Goals: 38
– Assists: 4
– Appearances/Starts: 29/28
– Percentage of goals: 40% (not including own goals)
CATEGORYWITH HAALANDWITHOUT HAALANDWin percentage69%25%Goals7421Goals allowed2220Chances created315125No prizes for guessing which team relies most heavily on its star forward. For Norway, it really is a case of no Haaland, no party (and not many goals).Stale Solbakken’s side gave a glimpse into life without the Manchester City forward when Norway lost 4-1 to France last week, with stand-in forward Jorgen Strand Larsen missing a penalty during a particularly toothless performance in Boston.
Norway are a different team with Haaland, winning 69% of games with him compared with 25% without him. When Haaland has played, Norway have scored 74 goals since 2022 and just 21 without him.
The 25-year-old has scored 38 goals and registered four assists since 2022, and he accounts for 40% of Norway’s goals in that time. So, though the numbers show that England rely heavily on Kane, nobody is more important to their team at this World Cup than Haaland is to Norway.
If Haaland stays fit, Norway could go a long way at this tournament. Without him, they are going home.
