World Cup semifinals: What you need to know, predictions, oddsplayLeboeuf: France favourites against Spain in ‘final before the final’ (1:00)ESPNMultiple AuthorsJul 12, 2026, 08:55 AM ET
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With only a week to go until the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, there are now just four teams still harboring dreams of becoming world champions.
We’ve seen 44 teams — including co-hosts Canada, Mexico and the United States, as well traditional powerhouses Brazil and Germany — fall by the wayside over the past month.
Now only reigning world champions Argentina plus England, France and Spain still have their eyes on victory in the final in New Jersey on July 19.
– Grading every team eliminated from the World Cup
– Golden Boot tracker: Who will score most goals at the World Cup?
– Where has Infantino been? FIFA president’s epic World Cup tour
But how did we get here? Who are the players who have stood out the most? And what are the moments that we’ll never forget?
ESPN’s Sam Marsden brings you up to date with answers to all of those questions, Sam Tighe looks at where the two semifinals will be won and lost, a selection of our writers who have been reporting on the tournament give us their predictions on the winner of each matchup, and we’ll bring you the recent betting odds for each tie via DraftKings.
Jump to: France vs. Spain | England vs. Argentina
France vs. Spain (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET | Arlington, Texas)
FRANCE
How they got here: France’s progress to this stage has been relatively trouble-free. They have won all six of their games, scoring 16 goals and overpowering teams with the attacking brilliance of Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise. Senegal (3-1), Iraq (3-0) and Norway (4-1) were comfortably beaten in the group stage, before Sweden were dispatched 3-0 in the round of 32.
Paraguay did a better job of keeping them at bay in the round of 16, with their physical approach offering a different challenge, but a second-half penalty from Mbappé ensured the 2018 winners progressed to the last eight meeting with Morocco. The African side was expected to pose more of a challenge, but France swatted Morocco aside despite Mbappé having a first-half penalty saved. He made amends after the break with a fine individual goal before assisting Dembélé in a 2-0 win.
Star player so far: Mbappé (eight goals, three assists) edges over Dembélé (five goals, two assists) and Olise (five assists). The Real Madrid striker has had an outstanding tournament and his overall World Cup record is stunning: he has 20 goals in 20 appearances — a figure bettered only by Lionel Messi. As the Morocco quarterfinal showed, he is again the man driving Les Bleus’ push for a third World Cup title, which would also be his second, after winning it eight years ago.
Best moment so far: Given the ease with which they have advanced so far, there has not been that big moment at a time of need. France have produced breathtaking moments of beauty — such as Mbappé’s goals in the win over Sweden, which showcased not only his killer instinct, but also the link-up play between him, Olise and Dembélé — but perhaps the biggest release came with the opener against Morocco. Didier Deschamps’ side was completely in control of the tie, but Mbappé’s brilliant strike in the 60th minute ensured the team’s dominance would pay off.
Masterful from Mbappé.
France leads Morocco in the second half 🔥 pic.twitter.com/FxympbUZuX
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) July 9, 2026
SPAIN
How they got here: Spain have not hit top gear, but there has never really been the sense that the European champions were in danger, either. Despite being held to a surprise goalless draw by Cape Verde in their opener, Spain eased through Group H with wins against Saudi Arabia (4-0) and Uruguay (1-0) before comfortably beating Austria 3-0. They had to sweat for victory against Portugal in the round of 16, but Mikel Merino’s 90th-minute strike earned a 1-0 victory to send them through. Merino was again the star off the bench in the quarterfinal, coming up with the goods in the 88th minute this time as Belgium were beaten 2-1.
Slow progress has allowed players who were fitness doubts, like Rodri and Lamine Yamal, to find match rhythm, while the tournament’s best defense has kept things drama-free. Luis de la Fuente’s side has conceded just one goal, although Spain will need to be more ruthless in attack to have any chance against France.
Star player so far: Merino may have played only 136 minutes of football at the tournament, but no one has produced bigger moments than him for Spain. The Arsenal midfielder struck the winning goals in the round of 16 and the quarterfinal at a time when his teammates were struggling to break through. Mikel Oyarzabal has also delivered, scoring four times, although he has fired blanks in the past two games. Rodri, meanwhile, is ever-improving as Spain wait for teenage sensation Yamal to find top form after a hamstring injury.
Best moment so far: Merino has a knack for saving Spain. He scored the winner against Germany in the quarterfinals at the last UEFA European Championship and again stepped off the bench and up to the plate against Portugal. His goal, with extra time looming, was the biggest moment of Spain’s campaign so far … until he did it against Belgium just four days later to set up a showdown with France. “I still can’t quite believe it,” he stated. “I don’t think it will happen again. We will see.” Whatever happens from here, his place in Spanish football folklore is guaranteed. — Marsden
SPAIN TAKES THE LATE LEAD IN CHAOTIC FASHION 🤯
Mikel Merino is the super sub once again for La Roja! pic.twitter.com/oXE2gDVa14
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) July 10, 2026
Where will this game be won?
France proved once again in their 2-0 quarterfinal win over Morocco that they’re the best team in this tournament. They racked up an xG of 3.69 and allowed just 0.14; it was total dominance where it mattered the most.
It’s scary stuff, sure, but Spain shouldn’t be deterred. After all, as Yamal rightly points out, they beat Les Bleus in 2024 and 2025, so why not add 2026 to the list? If anyone stands a chance of knocking them off their stride, it’s probably them.
Spain control the speed of play better than anyone, forcing everyone else to play at their pace. They’ll use possession as a defensive mechanism, limiting how much time on the ball France actually get, and therefore how many opportunities France will get to hurt them.
But the problem here is that you’ll never completely starve France of the ball, and if they do win it back, they can launch lethal counterattacks against a side stationed high up the pitch. Mbappé’s pace simply cannot be managed, while Olise’s vision for a pass will always find gaps.
This will create almost a game within the game — perhaps 10 opportunities for France to nick the ball and hit Spain on the counter. Can Mbappé & Co. make the most of them, or will Spain’s midfield maestro Rodri be able to snuff them out? — Tighe
Predictions
Lizzy Becherano: France 3-1 Spain. It’s hard to imagine France being stopped after the way they played against Morocco; they just have too much talent to not shine through.
Bill Connelly: Spain 2-1 France. Opponents have kept Yamal disconnected from the rest of Spain’s attack thus far, but we’ll say he’s due and that Spain’s possession defense keeps France neutralized.
Rob Dawson: France 1-0 Spain. France are the most complete team left in the tournament. As long as they don’t allow Spain to run the midfield, they’ll win.
Tom Hamilton: France 3-1 Spain. Merino can’t save Spain this time; Mbappé & Co. will take time to unpick the defense, but when they do, they’ll land a quick flurry of punches to progress.
Gab Marcotti: Spain 2-1 France. France are the better side, but Spain match up well and will present a different type of challenge from the ones they’ve faced so far.
Mark Ogden: France 2-1 Spain. France are on a different level with goals from so many outlets, and Spain can’t beat them by relying on yet another late Merino rescue act.
Odds (via DK Sports, correct at time of publication)
France: -155
Spain: +125
1:22
Burley: Bellingham believes ‘he can take England all the way’
England vs. Argentina (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET | Atlanta)
ENGLAND
How they got here: England got off to a flying start with a 4-2 win over Croatia, but that momentum stalled with a stodgy goalless draw with Ghana. Things have not been straightforward since. After an uninspiring 2-0 win against Panama set up a round-of-32 meeting with Congo DR, their campaign took a step toward infamy when they went behind early against the African side. A late two-goal salvo from Harry Kane sealed a 2-1 win and spared their blushes.
A major test against co-hosts Mexico in Mexico City followed where they overcame the fierce Azteca crowd, altitude fears, a Jarell Quansah red card and a late onslaught to win 3-2 thanks to a Jude Bellingham brace and a Kane penalty. They again showed their fighting spirit in the quarterfinal, recovering from going a goal down to beat Norway 2-1 in Miami after extra time. Bellingham was again the star, scoring twice.
Star player so far: It is hard to imagine England would have reached the semifinals without Bellingham. The Real Madrid midfielder scored against Croatia and was the match winner against Panama with a goal and an assist, but his performances against Mexico and Norway have elevated him into the running to win the Golden Ball as player of the tournament. His display against Mexico was one of the best from an England player in recent years as his double laid the foundations for a magnificent victory. He then followed it up with another brace against Norway to take his goal tally to six for the tournament.
Best moment so far: In terms of a moment of pure release, Kane’s late winner against Congo DR provided that high because of the timing, the quality and the significance. It capped a 15-minute brace that will live long in the memory of England fans. Bellingham’s goals against Mexico were also special, although it was his winner in extra time against Norway, after Ørjan Nyland spilled Morgan Rogers’ effort, which comes closest to matching the euphoria that followed Kane’s heroics vs. Congo DR.
An absolute THUNDERBOLT from Harry Kane to give England the lead 🏴 pic.twitter.com/lNYlhII74M
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) July 1, 2026
ARGENTINA
How they got here: It has been a roller coaster, but Argentina can prepare for a semifinal with England after somehow coming through three incredibly entertaining and draining knockout ties. Inspired by Lionel Messi, the world champions flew through their group with wins over Algeria (3-0), Austria (2-0) and Jordan (3-1), but they have run into huge problems in each of their games since.
It took extra time to finally see off Cape Verde as the World Cup debutants twice came from behind to threaten one of the tournament’s biggest-ever upsets against the holders, who won 3-2. Things looked even more dire against Egypt when, with little more than 10 minutes to go, they were 2-0 down. Two goals in four minutes, via Cristian Romero and Messi, leveled the tie and set the stage for Enzo Fernández’s incredible 93rd-minute winner for another 3-2 victory. Julián Álvarez then fired in a 112th-minute wonder goal against 10-man Switzerland before Lautaro Martínez put the seal on a 3-1 win to keep the Albiceleste‘s hopes of going back-to-back alive.
Star player so far: Even at 39, Messi has been head and shoulders above his teammates. He has netted eight of his team’s 17 goals, set up another and was the driving force in the comeback against Egypt, with a goal and an assist in the remarkable turnaround. Along the way, he has broken record after record, including becoming the World Cup’s all-time top scorer with 21 goals. The Inter Miami star has very much still got it.
Best moment so far: It is difficult to pick one given how ridiculous Argentina’s three knockout ties have been. The Cape Verde game was ludicrous, but Argentina were never behind in the tie, whereas they were not only on the ropes against Egypt — they looked on their way out. Fernández’s header to book a quarterfinal with Switzerland led to wild scenes in Atlanta brimming with joy and, above all, relief. Álvarez’s belting strike against the Swiss is a close second. — Marsden
INCREDIBLE! ARGENTINA TAKES THE LEAD IN STOPPAGE TIME 🇦🇷
After being down 2-0, Enzo Fernández scores to make it 3-2! pic.twitter.com/u1ISEUKK2G
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) July 7, 2026
Where will this game be won?
It has not been a vintage tournament for Argentina, eight-goal Lionel Messi aside, but they’re still here.
The 39-year-old Messi’s brilliance — either shooting from central positions, or delivering superb balls into the box — has papered over a lot of cracks. Argentina look porous defensively, regularly finding themselves in last-ditch tackle situations, and have abandoned any idea of getting anything from their wide men after converting to a 4-4-2 diamond formation.
That shape allows Los Albiceleste to have six players in central areas, all looking for quick combinations with Messi. England will have to find a way to match up to those numbers — probably with the fullbacks stepping inside at times — while also making sure they’re tightly marking the legendary No. 10.
It’s a battle England can win, as the physicality and energy of Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice and Bellingham (plus the supporting cast) have proved too much for anyone to handle so far. Thomas Tuchel wants more from his team, rightly criticizing the quarterfinal performance against Norway and brandishing the 2-1 win after extra time as “lucky.” One way to prove worthy in their manager’s eyes will surely be to conquer Messi. — Tighe
Predictions
Becherano: England 2-2 Argentina (Argentina win on pens). This may be the tightest World Cup semifinal matchup. If Argentina manage to hold England to a draw, there is no one better than Emiliano Martinez at a World Cup to be in goal for penalties.
Connelly: England 2-1 Argentina. Switzerland had the physical advantage against Argentina on Saturday, and England have more finishing skill than Switzerland.
Dawson: England 2-2 Argentina (England win on pens). Both teams score and concede goals, so it should be a good game.
Hamilton: England 3-2 Argentina (AET). Much of this depends on how many of the exhausted bodies England can raise in time for Wednesday’s match. If they can get the squad back and relatively fit, then they’re the better team. It’ll be nervy, but England’s discipline will see them through.
Marcotti: Argentina 0-0 England (Argentina win on pens). Neither of these teams have been particularly good (Tuchel is correct), but both have a ton of grit, mentality and heart. Expect a grind that swallows up even the likes of Messi, Kane and Bellingham and then penalties … with England adding to their long list of heroic penalty defeats.
Ogden: England 2-1 Argentina: This promises to be an epic clash, but England are a better team and as Switzerland showed against Argentina, the world champions find it tough against well-organized teams that can cause them problems.
Odds (via DK Sports, correct at time of publication)
England: -135
Argentina: +110
