Perhaps more important than figuring who you do want to draft in your Fantasy Football draft is figuring out who you absolutely do not want to draft at their cost. With that in mind, I put together a list of one player in each of the first nine rounds that I would not draft at their current average draft position. Now, it’s early August and ADP isn’t quite settled yet, so that ADP could be significantly different at different sites. For that reason, I want to make it clear that the ADP I am using here is the Fantasy Pros Consensus PPR ADP. If you are drafting on a site, or in an individual draft, where these players fall a round or two, then it may be the right time to draft them. But do not draft them at the ADP below.
Round 1
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
ADP: 1.12
Jefferson is a classic starting point because one, I think he’s awesome and two, I’m okay drafting him in the back half of Round 2. He is also an excellent bounce-back candidate; I just don’t think he will bounce back to
Round 1 value. We are all expecting Kyler Murray to win the competition with J.J. McCarthy and Murray should be an upgrade to the offense. However, he’s also likely to run eight or more times per game, which significantly cuts into pass volume. Jordan Addison isn’t a serious threat to Jefferson, but he does probably keep Jefferson south of a 30% target share. Over the past three seasons, when Jefferson, Addison, and T.J. Hockenson have all been on the field, Jefferson’s target share has been 28.3%. I have the team projected for 540 pass attempts this year, which would put Jefferson at 151 targets. That’s about a target per game lower than every other Round 1 receiver in my projections and all of them should have more accurate passers than Jefferson does this year.
Round 2
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals
ADP: 2.07
Unsurprisingly, in Round 2 we find another excellent player…and another guy I wouldn’t draft this high. This offseason, McBride lost Drew Petzing, one of the most tight end friendly play callers in the NFL. He also gained Jeremiyah Love, the top running back in the 2026 NFL Draft class and one of the better running back prospects in the past five years. Then there’s the fact that Arizona led the NFL in pass attempts and McBride scored a large percentage of his Fantasy points in garbage time. We should expect a significant reduction in targets, particularly if Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Michael Wilson stay healthy all year. And that matters for McBride, because he was outside the top 10 at tight end in Fantasy points per target, yards per target, explosives per target, and yards after catch per reception. His breakout campaign was based almost entirely on volume and it is highly unlikely that same volume is there in 2026. I wouldn’t draft him until the end of Round 3 in full PPR.
Round 3
Travis Etienne, RB, Saints
ADP: 3.11
Historically speaking, the dead zone for running backs has started in Round 3 and so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the next three players on my do not draft list play that position. Most of us spent the summer expecting Alvin Kamara would eventually be jettisoned and Etienne, after his big payday, would function as a true feature back. That did not happen, and as a result, Etienne’s ADP is a round and a half higher than I would like. Last year, Kellen MooreMoore’s running backs saw 77 targets and scored nine total touchdowns. They added Jordyn Tyson in the draft and I expect this to continue to be a pass-heavy offense. I have Kamara projected for nine touches per game and that leaves Etienne in the borderline RB2 range, worth a pick in Round 5. Tony Pollard has a similar profile and is available in Round 6.
Round 4
Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers
ADP: 4.08
Irving absolutely belongs in the Etienne-Pollard group of running backs. They are separated by less than a PPR point per game in my 2026 projections. But while Etienne only has one running back to worry about, Irving may have two. Tampa Bay brought Kenneth Gainwell in, presumably to handle passing downs, and Sean Tucker led the team in carries inside the five-yard line last year. Actually, that’s understating it. Irving literally did not have a carry inside the five last year. If he doesn’t have third downs, the two-minute drill, or goalline carries, he may just be a flex. I wouldn’t draft him until the five-six turn.
Round 5
David Montgomery, RB, Texans
ADP: 5.06
I feel less comfortable with this one. Partially because Montgomery scored so many touchdowns (33!) in Detroit, partially because he is more reasonably priced. Still, he’s a 29-year-old running back who hasn’t handled more than 235 touches in a season since 2021 and he’ll see an enormous downgrade in offensive line moving from the Lions to the Texans. I expect Woody Marks to handle a third of the rush attempts and most of the passing downs. I wouldn’t be that surprised if Montgomery still falls in the end zone 10 times, but this is not the type of profile I want to target in full PPR leagues.
Round 6
Harold Fannin, Jr., TE, Browns
ADP: 6.05
If I was a little uncomfortable with Montgomery, I am a lot more uncomfortable with Fannin. I was the Harold Fannin guy last year and I still believe he is an awesome talent. I am terrified the team is going to start Deshaun Watson at quarterback. The team also drastically improved their wide receiver room in the draft by adding KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. And like McBride, Fannin lost one of the most tight end friendly tight end coaches in the league in Kevin Stefanski. Oh, and tight end is deeper than ever. Fannin is one of my most rostered players in Dynasty, so I’ll be thrilled if I am wrong, but I would not draft him until Round 8.
Round 7
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
ADP: 7.09
Williams certainly has the upside to make this look foolish. If he learns to play on time and improves his accuracy, he could be one of the best quarterbacks in Fantasy. But those are pretty big ifs. Last year he finished 2.2 FPPG behind Brock Purdy and 1.5 points behind Trevor Lawrence. He’s being drafted well before both of them. I don’t want to draft any of them this early and wait until at least Round 8, preferably Round 10, if you aren’t drafting one of the truly elite Fantasy QBs.
Round 8
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Titans
ADP: 8.10
I was pretty excited about Robinson until the Titans drafted Carnell Tate. Now Robinson is the WR2 at best on a team that would probably prefer to be slightly run-heavy, and while I am hopeful about Cam Ward’s development, there is still a big question at the quarterback position. Robinson just doesn’t have the upside to justify these types of question marks regarding volume and the quality of the volume. He’s a Round 10 pick at the earliest.
Round 9
Texans DST
ADP: 9.11
Do not draft a defense in Round 9. I wouldn’t draft a defense until the final three rounds, but definitely don’t do it in Round 9. Also, if you’re going to draft a defense earlier than we suggest, it should probably be the Rams.
