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Life in the ACC certainly isn’t boring. In the past year alone, the conference has produced a long and awkward CFP rankings battle, an irate affiliate member, a thrilling national title game run, the strangest tiebreaker result imaginable, an out-of-nowhere 11-win season, the most disappointing team in the country, an epic pro-to-college face-plant, 18 of the 38 best games of the 2025 season, the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft (indirectly) and the most awkward possible move to nine-game conference schedules.
That sets a high bar for the 2026 season, but we have quite a bit to look forward to. We get another mammoth Miami-Notre Dame game (though we have to wait until November for it this time), redemption efforts from both Clemson’s Dabo Swinney and North Carolina’s Bill Belichick (and, kind of, Florida State’s Mike Norvell), James Franklin’s debut at Virginia Tech, and a potentially very bitter game between the defending conference champs and the contender that stole their star QB.
Bill Connelly’s Conference PreviewsLeading up to the 2026 season, we’re previewing every conference in college football.
Pac-12 | MWC | American | Sun Belt
Conference USA | MAC
And even if Miami actually delivers for the entire regular season for once and claims one of the spots in the ACC title game, the battle for the other spot could be ridiculously wild. More than half of the conference’s teams can convince themselves they’re a contender, and someone unexpected will probably be right.
This isn’t the best power conference, but it might be the silliest. (I mean that at least 70% as a compliment.) Let’s preview the ACC! And because Notre Dame is still sort of a member, we’ll preview the Fighting Irish here, too.
TEAMREC. (CONF)SP+ RKOFF. SP+DEF. SP+ST SP+Miami13-3 (6-2)922742SMU9-4 (6-2)232325102Louisville9-4 (4-4)26402955Virginia11-3 (7-2)31561958Clemson7-6 (4-4)34652441Ga. Tech9-4 (6-2)35345711Pittsburgh8-5 (6-2)36434760Florida St.5-7 (2-6)41543892Duke9-5 (7-2)44198636Wake Forest9-4 (4-4)52713476NC State8-5 (4-4)554564101California7-6 (4-4)80777293N. Carolina4-8 (2-6)911245932Boston Coll.2-10 (1-7)979710828Va. Tech3-9 (2-6)1061099787Stanford4-8 (3-5)11211778126Syracuse3-9 (1-7)11511510635TEAMREC.SP+ RKOFF. SP+DEF. SP+ST SP+Notre Dame10-2541347A 17-team conference with eight-game conference schedules was bound to produce silly results. Duke lost to both Tulane and UConn out of conference but sneaked into a five-way tie for second place at 6-2 in ACC play. And despite losing their only game against another 6-2 team, the Blue Devils managed to not only grab the second spot in the ACC championship game but win it over Virginia with a brilliant early surge and clutch plays in overtime. It was a weird result befitting a weird season, but even though the Blue Devils were not ranked by the College Football Playoff committee, the ACC still got a team in the playoff field thanks to Miami’s at-large selection. The Hurricanes then proceeded to come within a minute of winning the national title.Continuity tableThe continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.TEAMRET PROD (RK)OFF/DEFRET STARTSRET STARTS INRSFRNotre Dame72% (1)67% / 77%1912617Va. Tech69% (4)71% / 67%1686922SMU62% (22)66% / 58%1288910Syracuse62% (27)56% / 67%1168216Stanford60% (33)58% / 62%1501410Virginia59% (36)55% / 62%13714613Pittsburgh58% (41)60% / 56%1353713California58% (43)70% / 45%1127211Florida St.57% (48)57% / 57%7710313NC State54% (58)62% / 46%976812Louisville53% (59)52% / 55%9911413Clemson53% (60)46% / 61%1112611Wake Forest53% (62)45% / 61%1256717Boston Coll.50% (74)44% / 57%865011Duke49% (77)48% / 51%1017720Miami49% (78)48% / 51%131786Ga. Tech49% (79)37% / 61%995513N. Carolina44% (103)47% / 42%802815With almost the entire conference between 49% and 62% in returning production, there might not be many huge advantages to be found here. But it’s still interesting that James Franklin was able to generate the No. 4 overall ranking considering how much turnover coaching changes tend to prompt these days.2026 projectionsTEAMSP+OFF.DEF.STAVG. WSOS RK3. Notre Dame25.840.2 (3)14.6 (9)0.3 (47)10.8628. Miami20.934.3 (12)13.8 (7)0.3 (42)9.84923. Clemson12.729.4 (48)17.0 (16)0.3 (41)7.94127. Louisville11.030.5 (36)19.7 (26)0.2 (55)7.96028. SMU10.931.9 (25)20.6 (31)-0.4 (104)8.05433. Va. Tech9.131.0 (34)21.7 (39)-0.2 (89)7.35035. Florida St.8.729.6 (45)20.6 (30)-0.3 (94)6.63240. Virginia6.726.3 (62)19.9 (27)0.2 (58)7.36741. Pittsburgh6.630.2 (39)23.8 (53)0.1 (60)6.95743. Ga. Tech6.028.8 (53)23.4 (51)0.6 (11)6.13844. Duke5.632.8 (19)27.5 (80)0.4 (36)6.55547. NC State4.930.7 (35)25.3 (64)-0.4 (103)6.96856. Wake Forest3.524.2 (84)20.7 (32)0.0 (78)6.25857. California3.529.1 (50)25.3 (63)-0.3 (95)6.16358. N. Carolina3.524.4 (82)21.2 (36)0.4 (32)5.33569. Syracuse-1.023.8 (85)25.2 (61)0.4 (35)4.54874. Boston Coll.-1.725.3 (67)27.6 (82)0.5 (28)4.02777. Stanford-2.022.6 (97)24.1 (56)-0.6 (128)3.929The hierarchy is pretty clear here, with Notre Dame and Miami leading the way. But among actual ACC teams, only 7.1 points separate second-place Clemson from 10th-place Duke, and no team is projected so low that it can’t hope for a lightning-in-a-bottle run at seven or eight wins. (OK, runs from BC and Stanford would be pretty surprising in that regard.)TEAMAVG. CONF. W11+ WINS %6+ WINS %Miami7.528.1%99.9%SMU6.03.4%95.7%Louisville5.93.7%92.9%Clemson5.12.9%94.2%Va. Tech4.91.2%88.3%Virginia4.81.5%87.7%NC State4.70.7%81.2%Pittsburgh4.50.7%82.1%Duke4.40.4%73.2%California4.10.2%63.0%Ga. Tech4.10.1%64.7%Florida St.4.00.4%76.4%Wake Forest3.60.2%66.5%N. Carolina3.10.0%43.9%Syracuse2.90.0%24.7%Stanford2.40.0%13.4%Boston Coll.2.30.0%15.0%Miami avoids two of the league’s other projected top-30 teams, and it will take another couple of considerable upsets for the Hurricanes to fall short of a title game bid. But the standings could get very messy after that.Five best games of 2026Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under eight points.Sept. 19: SMU at Louisville. We don’t have to wait long for the conference hierarchy to establish itself, especially considering Week 0’s Virginia-NC State game in Brazil. This Week 3 encounter will be Louisville’s first Saturday game of the season — the Cardinals play Ole Miss on Sunday in Week 1, then Villanova on Friday in Week 2 — and it’s a big one.Oct. 3: Miami at Clemson. After last season’s epic skepticism, SP+ is actually more optimistic about Clemson’s potential this season than most prognosticators seem to be. And after a Week 1 trip to LSU comes this huge game. If the Tigers are to produce a redemption arc in 2026, we’ll likely know it after Week 5.Oct. 24: Virginia Tech at Clemson. Franklin’s first Tech team gets this far into the season before playing a projected top-30 team. That offers the Hokies quite a bit of runway to figure things out, and it could make this game awfully important.Oct. 31: Clemson at Florida State. Clemson is evidently the ACC’s hinge team — either the Tigers will make a run back to the ACC title game, or they’ll help to determine who does instead. And if you told me right now that FSU was going to produce a top-20-caliber surge or finish under .500 for a third straight season, I’d believe you.Nov. 7: Miami at Notre Dame. Yes. YES. I want it.My 10 favorite transfersQB Darian Mensah, Miami. Was it awfully shady that we somehow already knew where Mensah was going the moment he entered the portal late in the January transfer window? Yes. Is the 3,900-yard passer a potentially game-changing addition for the defending national runners-up? Also yes.
Darian Mensah’s transfer from Duke to Miami stirred things up in the already-spicy ACC. Samuel Lewis/Icon SportswireDT Zion Wilson, Virginia. I love big playmakers, and Wilson is one of the best. The 6-foot-3 316-pounder made 9.5 tackles for loss with seven sacks at East Carolina last season and should provide immediate disruption up front in Charlottesville.
RB Evan Dickens, Boston College. Despite playing only 11 games last season at Liberty, Dickens finished ninth nationally in rushing yards (and third in rushing yards per game). The BC offense craves a physical identity, and Dickens averaged 3.8 yards per carry after contact. An absolute steal for the Eagles.
CB Jaquez White, Virginia Tech. While Franklin brought a lot of former Penn State players and commits with him from State College, a Troy transfer might have the biggest early impact. White picked off three passes, broke up 12 more and even made 3.5 TFLs as a do-everything cover man last season.
LB Chris Jones, Florida State. The Southern Miss transfer made tackles on 17.5% of his snaps last season — one every 5.7 snaps — and took part in 15 run stops. I don’t know about the pass defense, but I’m betting FSU’s run defense ends up awfully strong with Jones and Blake Nichelson cleaning up messes.
RB Justice Haynes, Georgia Tech. Injury limited Haynes to seven games with Michigan last season, but he averaged 7.1 yards per carry and topped 100 yards six times. The former blue-chipper is a major get for a new-look Tech attack.
DE Damon Wilson II, Miami. Wilson is a bit more of a pass-rush specialist than either Rueben Bain Jr. or Akheem Mesidor was for the Hurricanes last season, but he’s certainly special: He recorded nine sacks with an elite 13.9% pressure rate last season with Missouri.
QB Alberto Mendoza, Georgia Tech. Fernando’s brother couldn’t have done more with his garbage time opportunities last season at Indiana: He completed 18 of 24 passes for 286 yards and five touchdowns, and he rushed for 190 yards in just 13 carries. The bar for guys named Mendoza is awfully high right now, but this dude has massive potential.
WR Cooper Barkate, Miami. Mensah’s move made the headlines, but he also brought his No. 1 receiver with him. After transferring from Harvard, Barkate caught 72 balls for 1,106 yards and seven touchdowns last season at Duke, and his 2.3 yards per route was one of the conference’s highest averages.
OL Jimarion McCrimon, NC State. Proven offensive linemen are basically gold in the portal, and State managed to land a first-team All-American Conference selection in McCrimon. He allowed just one sack and committed just two penalties all season.
• Head coach: Marcus Freeman (fifth year, 43-12 overall)
• 2026 projection: third in SP+, 10.8 average wins
With a new starting quarterback, it took the Notre Dame offense one game to become elite last season. With a new coordinator, it took the defense three. Once everything came together, the Fighting Irish were comfortably one of the best teams in the country. Unfortunately, the meat of the schedule was over after Week 2.
GAMESREC.AVG. OPP. SP+ RKAVG. SCOREFirst 20-29.5Opp 34.0, ND 32.0Last 1010-068.6ND 44.0, Opp 14.3Two losses to eventual CFP teams by a combined four points cost the Irish a playoff spot. The way it played out exposed everything wrong with leaving playoff selections to humans who create an artisanally hand-crafted selection of playoff teams — something we don’t need to do, as far as I’m concerned. But with Notre Dame’s top-heavy schedule, we knew a bumpy start could be costly.
This year, the two marquee games don’t come until Weeks 7 (at BYU) and 10 (Miami at home), and the question marks are minimal. CJ Carr could be the nation’s best QB, and coordinator Chris Ash’s defense returns 14 of the 20 players who saw at least 200 snaps and adds four solid transfers. The Irish are projected favorites of at least 17.4 points in 10 games. If they are reliant on the CFP committee to let them in, that’s on them.
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With Carr, leading receiver Jordan Faison, 2024 playoff hero Jaden Greathouse and players responsible for 41 of 60 offensive line starts returning, Mike Denbrock’s offense has the basics covered. The Irish will need some new burst in the skill corps, though, without running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and receiver Malachi Fields. It’s easy to assume that some combination of RB Aneyas Williams (9.3 yards per carry), Greathouse (14.1 yards per catch in 2024), sophomore WR Micah Gilbert, young Ohio State receiver transfers Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter, and any number of recent blue-chippers could provide the necessary pop, but we’ll still need to see it happen.
The defense could stand to see a bit more disruption. Notre Dame ranked only 57th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 25th in sack rate; the leaders in both categories — edge men Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and Boubacar Traore — return, but they could use help. Tackle Francis Brewu (Pitt) made 10 run stops last season, and pass rushers Bryce Young and Keon Keeley (Alabama) had high pressure rates that suggest sacks are coming. And we know the secondary will be fantastic. Corners Leonard Moore and Christian Gray combined for seven interceptions and 20 pass breakups despite each missing a couple of games, and safeties Adon Shuler and Tae Johnson are dynamite as well. Johnson is one of a few sophomores capable of taking a leap in development.
Freeman addressed another key issue — place-kicking — with the addition of Purdue’s Spencer Porath. On paper, it appears he has checked every box, and I’m guessing the chip on Notre Dame’s shoulder from last year’s snub could come in handy, too. But the Irish’s preseason strength of schedule, per SP+, comes in at just 62nd thanks to only three projected top-50 opponents. That’s not good enough, both because it might give the committee less to nitpick and, well, the Irish should simply be getting challenged more. But I will be floored if this team isn’t both playing in, and threatening to win, the CFP.
• Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fifth year, 35-19 overall)
• 2026 projection: eighth in SP+, 9.8 average wins (7.5 in the ACC)
They played in six of the season’s 30 best games (and each of the top two). They saved themselves with a four-game run of brilliance to finish the regular season, made the type of run that only an expanded CFP can offer, then went out and grabbed a huge (and controversial) QB transfer as well. If Indiana was the main character of the 2025 season, then Miami was at least a co-No. 1 at the end.
After winning 10 games with a top-rated offense but falling short of the CFP because of a defensive collapse, Cristobal’s Hurricanes were far more well-rounded in 2025: They fell from first to 22nd in offensive SP+ due to an almost complete lack of big plays, but they surged to seventh on defense to make up for it. With the offense teed up to improve again (as long as the line holds up), Miami’s playoff and/or title hopes will be dictated in part by how much the defense slips following a massive rebuild in the front six.
Few teams will boast a better selection of marquee names on offense. Quarterback Darian Mensah indeed comes over from Duke after throwing for 3,973 yards and 34 TDs (and only six picks) for the ACC champs, and addressing big-play issues by adding guys who averaged 15.4 (Duke’s Cooper Barkate), 15.5 (West Virginia’s Cam Vaughn) and 17.1 yards per catch (South Carolina’s Vandrevius Jacobs) is certainly pretty direct. The dynamite running back trio of playoff star Mark Fletcher Jr., third-down master CharMar Brown and high-upside sophomore Girard Pringle Jr. returns, as does sophomore slot man Malachi Toney, whose 1,324 yards from scrimmage and 11 TDs came in all sorts of ways — screens, jet sweeps, intermediate passes and so on. He’s also an elite punt returner. The upside here is immense, though the offensive line lost four starters and added only one transfer (Georgia junior Jamal Meriweather). Guards Matthew McCoy (who could play tackle this year) and Samson Okunlola are well-seasoned, but a lot will be asked of last year’s reserves and incoming five-star freshman Jackson Cantwell. This could easily be a more explosive but less efficient offense.
Last year’s youth movement could make this year’s defensive secondary one of the nation’s best. Six of the eight DBs who logged more than 200 snaps last year are back, and they’re all either sophomores or juniors, including corners Xavier Lucas and Ethan O’Connor (combined: one INT, 15 PBUs) and safety Bryce Fitzgerald, one of last year’s elite freshmen. Cristobal also added a destructive junior safety in Boston College’s Omar Thornton (5.5 TFLs, four forced fumbles).
The secondary might have to carry more weight, though, because the front six lost last year’s biggest shop wreckers — ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor and linebacker Wesley Bissainthe. Tackles Justin Scott, Ahmad Moten Sr. and Armondo Blount are fantastic, but the pass rush was a difference-maker in last winter’s CFP run. The duo of Damon Wilson II (Mizzou) and junior Marquise Lightfoot could come up big, but they’re both smaller and less proven, and the bar is ridiculously high.
• Head coach: Dabo Swinney (18th year, 186-53 overall)
• 2026 projection: 23rd in SP+, 7.9 average wins (5.1 in the ACC)
Making predictions is evidently a closest-to-the-pin contest. I was, for all intents and purposes, the resident Clemson skeptic last year, too concerned about (a) not enough big plays on offense, (b) far too many big plays allowed on defense and (c) the major turnovers luck the Tigers enjoyed in 2024 to consider them genuine national title contenders. When they indeed bombed from preseason No. 4 to 7-6, I got a lot of pats on the back for a great prediction.
Dabo Swinney is looking at the biggest reset of his career after Clemson finished a disappointing 7-6 in 2025. Vincent Carchietta-Imagn ImagesI was still mostly wrong, though: I still thought the Tigers would be a top-15 team and ACC favorite. Even from a skeptic’s perspective, Clemson was shockingly poor. The offense suffered a lot of injuries — especially at receiver and on the offensive line — but rarely looked threatening even when mostly healthy. And despite some elite individual talent, the Tigers failed to crack the defensive SP+ top 20 for the third straight season. Whatever their ceiling actually was as a team, they got nowhere close to it and suffered their worst season since 2010.Swinney is now dealing with one of the biggest resets of his career, with a new offensive coordinator, seven new offensive starters and a defense that lost three top-50 NFL draft picks.Swinney seems to be simultaneously embracing and resisting progress. On one hand, he finally dipped fully into portal life, adding 10 transfers — still well below the national average but a solid total — but responding to the need for offensive progress by making a regressive hire. Offensive coordinator Chad Morris is back in town; he helped modernize the Tigers’ attack from 2011 through 2014 but hasn’t been at the helm of even a decent offense since 2017. His attack will likely be built around junior Christopher Vizzina, a two-year backup who was solid last year in his lone career start. (True freshman Tait Reynolds could enter the picture at some point, too.) The running back position might be solid with sophomore Gideon Davidson and SMU transfer Chris Johnson Jr., and junior receivers Bryant Wesco Jr. (injured for much of 2025) and T.J. Moore still have all the potential in the world. Nine linemen started at least one game because of injuries, and five of them return, though star tackle Blake Miller isn’t one of them.
The Clemson defense has been less than the sum of its parts for a while, and now the defensive front must replace five of last year’s top seven. End Will Heldt is an absolute star (17.5 TFLs last year), but transfers such as end London Merritt (Colorado) and tackle Markus Strong (Oklahoma) and sophomores such as end Darien Mayo and tackle Amare Adams must shine. Linebackers Sammy Brown and Kobe McCloud should be dynamite, but the secondary will be heavily reliant on newcomers, especially safeties Corey Myrick (Southern Miss) and Jerome Carter (Old Dominion).
Honestly, a reset probably isn’t the worst thing after the disappointment of 2025. While Clemson is projected just 23rd overall, with an average projected win total of 7.9 — not exactly rampant optimism — the Tigers are also projected second in the league and have a chance at a 5-2 start (or better) with five of their first seven games coming at home.
• Head coach: Jeff Brohm (fourth year, 28-12 overall)
• 2026 projection: 27th in SP+, 7.9 average wins (5.9 in the ACC)
Brohm’s first three seasons in charge at his alma mater have been full of wins and what-ifs. Louisville has won at least nine games all three seasons, but heartbreaking losses have held the Cardinals back. In 2023, they couldn’t beat Florida State, despite the Seminoles’ QB injuries, in the ACC championship game. In 2024, they beat eventual champ Clemson but fell short of a title game bid because of tight losses to SMU, Miami and, less forgivably, Stanford. In 2025, they beat Miami but lost three other conference games by a combined seven points. Brohm brings in 30-plus transfers and starts a new quarterback every year but creates a strangely stable product — four losses every year with an SP+ in the 20s or low 30s. When will the Cardinals make another run to Charlotte?
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In 2026, that answer will probably depend on the QB. Former Ohio State backup Lincoln Kienholz will likely take the reins; he’s a good athlete but is less proven than the typical Brohm starter. If he (or West Georgia transfer Davin Wydner) is ready to produce, the skill corps could take it from there. Louisville has one of the best running back duos in the country with Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown; they combined for 1,588 yards (8.1 per carry) last year despite no run threat from the QB position. The receiving corps will be almost totally new, but Brohm landed a great group with receivers Tre Richardson (Vanderbilt), Lawayne McCoy (Florida State) and Jackson Voth (Drake), and tight ends Brody Foley (Tulsa) and Justyn Reid (Tulane). Richardson was a key big-play threat for Vandy’s historic 10-win team and is also a high-level kick returner.
The offensive line is also completely rebuilt, with only one contributor returning and five incoming transfers. But incumbent guard Lance Robinson is excellent, and among the newcomers are All-Conference USA tackle Anwar O’Neal (Delaware) and All-Sun Belt tackle Johnnie Brown III (Georgia Southern). It’s always dicey relying so heavily on the portal to keep the offensive line afloat, but Brohm has earned the benefit of the doubt.
New co-coordinators Steve Ellis and Mark Ivey take over an odd situation on defense, where some excellent playmakers return — defensive end Clev Lubin (8.5 sacks), linebacker Stanquan Clark (11 run stops in 2024), nickel Antonio Watts (8.5 TFLs), corner Tayon Holloway (2 INTs, 5 PBUs) — but no one else does. Only five of the 16 players with 200-plus snaps are back, which means the answers will have to come once again from the portal. Brohm signed 14 transfers to fill in defensive gaps, and among them, tackles Demeco Kennedy (Purdue) and Joshua Donald (Houston/Appalachian State), edge rusher Tyler Thompson (North Carolina), corners DJ Waller Jr. (Kentucky) and Brycen Scott (Elon), and safeties Koen Entringer (Iowa), Kaleb Beasley (Tennessee) and T.J. Banks (Ole Miss) are particularly important.
There are two ways to look at Louisville’s 2026 schedule: On one hand, the Cardinals are projected favorites in every game after the season opener against Ole Miss. On the other hand, they play eight games projected within one score, including six in conference play. Tight losses tripped them up the past two years, but if transfers come through once more, they’ll be in the ACC title race until the end.
• Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fifth year, 38-17 overall)
• 2026 projection: 28th in SP+, 8.0 average wins (6.0 in the ACC)
For all the wacky tiebreaker machinations we ended up seeing, the ACC title race was almost incredibly straightforward: If SMU had simply closed things out at either Wake Forest (a 13-12 loss) or California (38-35), the Mustangs would have reached the title game for the second time in their two ACC seasons. There was a twinge of disappointment to Rhett Lashlee’s fourth season in charge, then, but things have still been remarkably stable for the Mustangs: They’ve won 31 games over the past three years, and their transition to a power conference has been seamless. Better yet, Lashlee has been able to taper off his portal usage — after bringing in 26 transfers in 2023, that number has dropped for three straight seasons.
Change is still afoot this season, though. Lashlee needed only 16 transfers this time, but he’ll rely heavily on them in the receiving corps, on the defensive line and in the secondary. And for the first time in his tenure, he had to deal with coordinator changes after the loss of OC Casey Woods (now Missouri State’s head coach) and DC Scott Symons (now a Dallas Cowboys assistant). In response, Lashlee did something pretty fun: He basically named everyone a co-coordinator. Rob Likens, Garin Justice and D’Eriq King will share the role on offense, and Maurice Crum Jr. and Rickey Hunley Jr. will do so on defense. (Congratulations, reader: You’re also a co-coordinator!) That’s the work of someone who either really trusts the culture he’s building or is overthinking things a bit.
On offense, it certainly helps that SMU will have something rare: a third-year starting quarterback. Kevin Jennings returns for one last dance, and he’s just good enough to be maddening — in 26 starts, he has produced a Total QBR of 76.0 or higher 13 times (in which SMU has gone 12-1) and has fallen under 50.0 seven times (SMU went 3-4). When he’s good, the Mustangs are almost untouchable, but he can still throw a few too many picks at times. He’ll have to build a rapport with a new skill corps, as last year’s four yards-from-scrimmage leaders are gone.
TruMediaSlot man Yamir Knight and a pair of sophomores — RB Derrick McFall and WR Jalen Cooper — will be important, but newcomers such as running backs Kendrick Raphael (Cal), receivers Yannick Smith (East Carolina) and Jalen Hale (Alabama), and tight ends Randy Pittman Jr. (Florida State) and Theo Melin Öhrström (Texas A&M) will all have to fill important roles. All-conference tackle PJ Williams leads an experienced line that required no portal additions. That’s quite the luxury.
The defense improved every season under Symons, so his departure, along with that of seven starters, makes this quite the transition year on D. The return of linebackers Brandon Booker, Brandon Miyazono and Alexander Kilgore, and corners Marcellus Barnes Jr., William Nettles and Jaelyn Davis-Robinson should help significantly, however, and Lashlee added some excellent mid-major playmakers in end Marques White (10.5 TFLs at UMass) and nickel Jarvis Lee (9.5 TFLs at USF). Size won’t be an issue up front, thanks to tackles Christian Davis (Louisiana Tech) and Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder (Kansas State) and returnees Jonathan Jefferson and Woo Spencer, all of whom are listed at 305 pounds or heavier. There might be enough here to produce another top-40 unit, and with Jennings & Co. back on offense, another year of ACC contention wouldn’t be a surprise.
• Head coach: James Franklin (first year)
• 2026 projection: 33rd in SP+, 7.3 average wins (4.9 in the ACC)
It was easy to really like the Franklin hire for Virginia Tech. No matter what limitations Franklin eventually suffered at Penn State, he still raised the floor significantly at both PSU and Vanderbilt, and his recruiting capabilities make him very likely to do the same at Virginia Tech.
There’s a lot to like about Virginia Tech’s hiring of James Franklin to turn the Hokies around. Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon SportswireHis Hokies are one of the hardest teams to project for 2026, though. Franklin put together an excellent recruiting class (with plenty of prospects who flipped their Penn State commitments), but that will be only so helpful in Year 1. He’s instead going to be reliant on a mix of transfers — and I like the transfer haul quite a bit — and holdovers from a team that underachieved quite a bit in Brent Pry’s final season in charge.The offense will have heavy Penn State undertones, for better (efficiency and physicality) or worse (conservatism). Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, tight end Luke Reynolds and offensive coordinator Ty Howle all followed Franklin from State College, and one assumes Grunkemeyer and Reynolds will connect often while Grunkemeyer — who produced an 85.2 Total QBR with a 76% completion rate in his last three starts as a PSU freshman — sticks the ball in the belly of backs such as Marcellous Hawkins, Bill Davis (Louisiana) and redshirt freshman Jeffrey Overton Jr. Most of last year’s extremely young offensive line returns, and both Hawkins and Davis are excellent yards-after-contact guys. Among returnee Ayden Greene and transfers Que’Sean Brown (Duke) and Marlion Jackson (Louisiana Tech), the receiving corps could produce some big plays, too. The Hokies haven’t had an SP+ top-40 offense since 2020, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they play at a pretty high level even if they don’t blow anyone away aesthetically.
Franklin hired a familiar face as defensive coordinator: Pry! He never quite balanced his natural defensive chops with the demands of the head coaching job, but now he gets to focus on a unit that underachieved last year but returns potential stars in tackle Kemari Copeland, linebacker Kaleb Spencer and undersized-but-aggressive corners Isaiah Brown-Murray and Thomas Williams. Franklin also added established G6 corners in Jaquez White (Troy) and Cam Chadwick (UConn) and absolutely loaded up on young former blue-chip linemen in ends Javion Hilson (Mizzou) and Mylachi Williams (PSU).
It feels unfair to project high expectations on a program that has enjoyed just one winning season in the 2020s. There’s a chance it takes Franklin & Co. a little while to get things aligned, and maybe this ends up being a year for getting the young blue-chippers’ feet wet. But with a manageable schedule and semi-proven QB in Grunkemeyer, there’s potential for at least seven or eight wins.
• Head coach: Mike Norvell (seventh year, 38-34 overall)
• 2026 projection: 35th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
Technically, anytime you improve by three wins and 42 spots in SP+, you have pulled off an excellent rebound season. And technically, going 5-7 just two years after you went 13-1 is never going to be anything but massively disappointing. It’s impossible to set expectations for Mike Norvell and FSU, but he evidently did just enough in 2025, following the cataclysmic 2-10 collapse of 2024, to keep his job for a seventh season. And as long as you’re still on the job, you can continue saving yourself.
After getting the customary Tommy Castellanos Experience in 2025 — start out like a house afire (the Seminoles overachieved against offensive projections by 17.3 PPG in the first four games), then fade quickly (they underachieved by 8.2 PPG from there) — the offense is now in quarterback Ashton Daniels’ hands. Daniels took over for Jackson Arnold at Auburn late last season and produced genuine improvement in a small sample. He’s a steadier but less explosive passer than Castellanos, and he’s an exciting and physical runner. He could pair well with backs Ousmane Kromah and Quintrevion Wisner (Texas) and vital receiver returnees Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy. Kromah is a potential star, and in terms of yards per route, Robinson and Danzy are each among the top six returning WRs in the conference.
TruMediaThe big question for the offense comes up front, where last year’s top seven linemen are all gone, and Norvell had to bring in five transfers. Up to four of them could start, including All-MAC tackle Nate Pabst (Bowling Green) and another key Auburn transfer, Xavier Chaplin. Quite a few of the nation’s biggest offensive underachievers last year found themselves relying too heavily on transfers on the O-line, so this is a major roll of the dice. But if the line holds up, the offense could be excellent despite coordinator Gus Malzahn’s February retirement. (Receivers coach Tim Harris Jr. was promoted to the OC gig.)
Tony White’s first season as defensive coordinator produced decent improvement, albeit in bend-don’t-break form: FSU ranked only 54th in success rate allowed but improved to sixth in yards allowed per successful play. The linebacker duo of Blake Nichelson and transfer Chris Jones (Southern Miss) should assure proper sideline-to-sideline patrolling, and tackles Daniel Lyons and Jordan Sanders (Texas State) should provide push up front, so I’m betting the run defense is solid. But sophomore Mandrell Desir is the only proven pass rusher, and the secondary lost four of its top six, including all-conference safety Earl Little Jr. That means transfers will have to prop up the pass defense. Senior pass rusher Rylan Kennedy (Texas A&M) could be solid, but sophomores such as corner Nehemiah Chandler (South Alabama) and safeties Ma’Khi Jones (Duke) and CJ Richard Jr. (Illinois State) might have to come through in the back.
• Head coach: Tony Elliott (fifth year, 22-26 overall)
• 2026 projection: 40th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)
What do you do when you’re 11-23 after three seasons, and you’re struggling to generate any traction? You throw a transfer portal Hail Mary. And if you’re Virginia’s Tony Elliott, and the Hail Mary lands you an absolute bounty — a starting quarterback, your top two running backs, two of your top three wide receivers, an all-conference offensive lineman, a completely revamped and effective defensive line and a completely revamped and effective secondary — it could work out great. Like, “your school’s first 11-win season ever” great. UVA leaped from 91st to 31st in SP+, from 95th to 56th on offense and from 86th to 19th on defense. Maybe no class in the country changed a program’s trajectory as much as this one.
Of course, when most of those program-saving transfers are one-year guys, you pretty much have no choice but to go all-in the next year, too. Of the 40 total players who saw 200-plus snaps for UVA, only 16 return, so in come another 30 portal arrivals. I’m not sure this group is quite as good as last year’s, but I still ranked it among my 20 favorite classes.
Quarterback Beau Pribula (Missouri) could be a solid replacement for 3,000-yard passer Chandler Morris, and I enjoyed that Elliott went after explosive players on mostly unsuccessful offenses — running backs Jekail Middlebrook (Middle Tennessee) and Solomon Beebe (UAB), receivers Rico Flores Jr. (UCLA) and Da’Shawn Martin (Kent State) — as something of a discount approach to plumping up the skill corps. He also added one of my favorite big disruptors (East Carolina’s Zion Wilson) and grabbed 10 defenders who made FBS starts last season.
Perhaps most importantly, only 14 of the 30 transfers are seniors. Granted, so are some key returnees — third-team all-conference O-linemen Noah Josey and McKale Boley, defensive end Fisher Camac, cornerbacks Jam Jackson and Donavon Platt — but even when you hit it big in the portal, you don’t want to have to rely so heavily on newcomers every year. In theory, this class is a step toward something more stable in the roster management department.
The only disappointment from 2025 came in the ACC championship game, where UVA dropped an overtime upset to Duke. Without a single projected top-30 opponent on the schedule, the Cavaliers could be in great shape to make another run toward Charlotte if the new players click. That might be a lot to ask — SP+ certainly thinks so — but after last year, Elliott has the hot portal hand until proven otherwise.
• Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (12th year, 80-61 overall)
• 2026 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.9 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)
For much of Narduzzi’s tenure at Pitt, his Panthers have been unreliable narrators, thriving when it looked like things might go poorly and underachieving when it looked like pieces were in place. In 2025, however, they were extremely reliable: If their opponents were good, they probably lost. If they weren’t, Pitt probably won.
Pitt vs. SP+ top 40: 1-4 record, 21.6 PPG, 32.0 PPG allowed
Pitt vs. everyone else: 7-1 record, 41.3 PPG, 20.3 PPG allowed
Pitt was basically the precise definition of a borderline top-40 team. Considering the Panthers were 3-9 and 91st two seasons earlier, this was solid work. But do they have another top-20 rise in them?
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That question will probably be answered by new guys out wide. Pitt returns quarterback Mason Heintschel, and both lines are loaded with experience, but six of last year’s top seven in the receiving corps and five of the top eight in the secondary are gone, and both units will be seeking help from newcomers.
Heintschel produced a 57.6 Total QBR last season, decent for a true freshman who didn’t get as much help as expected from his run game (88th in rushing success rate). That could change with sophomore Ja’Kyrian Turner and transfer La’Vell Wright (Western Kentucky) running behind what really should be a strong line. Five of last year’s top seven return, and Narduzzi added an All-MAC guard in Keylen Davis (Akron). But explosive wideout Cataurus Hicks is the only reliable pass catcher back, so sophomore Bryce Yates, FCS star Malik Knight (Western Carolina) and perhaps new tight ends Elijah Lagg (UAB) and Carson Kent (Oklahoma) must produce.
Last year’s run defense was one of Narduzzi’s best. The Panthers allowed just 3.6 yards per (non-sack) carry and stopped 25.8% of carries for zero or fewer yards (fourth). Texas-bound linebacker Rasheem Biles was a huge part of that puzzle, but this should still be a strength with the return of ends Isaiah Neal and Jimmy Scott, tackle Nick James and linebacker Braylan Lovelace. But even with a decent pass rush, the Panthers ranked 50th in yards allowed per dropback (6.0) and 82nd in completion rate allowed (62.9%). Injuries were a problem — eight DBs started at least once, and no one started all 13 games — which allowed young cornerbacks Shadarian Harrison and Shawn Lee Jr., and young safeties Cruce Brookins and Josh Guerrier to all get their feet wet. That’s important with four starters gone. Nickel DeMarco Ward (Memphis) and corners Raion Strader (Auburn/Miami-Ohio) and Kanye Thompson (Slippery Rock) could all be important additions. This doesn’t feel like the year for a top-20 breakthrough, especially with trips to Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville on the docket. But perhaps Narduzzi has a few more antisocial tricks up his sleeve?
• Head coach: Brent Key (fifth year, 27-20 overall)
• 2026 projection: 43rd in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.1 in the ACC)
Key is a former offensive lineman and successful offensive line coach, and for the first three years of his head coaching career, he was able to hand the reins of his program to an offensive lineman in spirit. Haynes King was a human third-down conversion who threw for 7,907 yards and rushed for 2,277 more as a Yellow Jacket, and despite injuries, talent deficiencies and a defense that only recently began to generate traction, Key’s Tech teams enjoyed three straight winning seasons. That’s pretty good considering the Jackets suffered four straight losing seasons before Key and King arrived.
The Haynes King generation for Tech is now over. Of the 16 Yellow Jackets with 200-plus snaps on offense last season, only three return (running back Malachi Hosley and linemen Ethan Mackenny and Malachi Carney). On defense, 10 of 21 are back; that’s a better percentage, but it doesn’t include star tackle Jordan van den Berg or five of the top six defensive backs. Key also had to replace both coordinators, as Buster Faulkner (offense) left for Florida and Blake Gideon left for alma mater Texas.
After 15 years as an NFL assistant, former Tech quarterback George Godsey returns to college to take over as offensive coordinator, and he’ll have a fun new duo to lean on in the backfield. QB Alberto Mendoza (Indiana) was nearly perfect in a small sample as his brother Fernando’s backup last season — he had a 99.4 Total QBR in 102 snaps — and RB Justice Haynes (Michigan) rushed for 857 yards (7.1 per carry) and 10 touchdowns. Haynes and Hosley will run behind a line with experienced tackles in Mackenny and Carney, but transfers and youngsters will have to complete the picture up front. I’m not completely sure who will catch Mendoza’s passes either: 6-foot-4 transfer Isaiah Fuhrmann (Elon) was an FCS star but was banged up this spring, and sophomore slot Jordan Allen and tight end transfers Gavin Harris (New Mexico State) and Chris Corbo (Dartmouth) are the only other players with more than 120 receiving yards last year.
Former Marshall and Southern Miss defensive coordinator Jason Semore takes over a unit with proven linebackers and not much else. Key’s transfer choices tell a pretty big tale: He added six linemen (three ends, three tackles) and two cornerbacks. Tech won’t lack for size thanks to newcomers such as Vincent Carroll-Jackson (UConn) and Tawfiq Thomas (Colorado), and if Semore can unlock the athleticism of former Alabama blue-chippers Noah Carter (end) and Jaylen Mbakwe (cornerback), then the upside rises pretty dramatically. But outside of linebacker E.J. Lightsey and maybe end Amontrae Bradford, it’s hard to find many genuinely proven entities here. This feels like a pretty big reset year in Atlanta; if Key generates another winning season, then something really big could be on the horizon for 2027.
• Head coach: Manny Diaz (third year, 18-9 overall)
• 2026 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.5 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)
If you put Duke’s 2025 offense, 2024 defense and 2025 special teams unit together, you would have a top-20 team, per SP+. If you put the other team together — 2024 offense, 2025 defense, 2024 special teams — you’d barely have a top-80 team. Diaz’s first two seasons at Duke have produced a good version of everything. They’ve also produced a pair of nine-win seasons and an ACC title. Now just imagine what could happen if Duke does all the good things at the same time.
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Duke was a volatile team in 2025, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 12 points five times but underachieving by at least 18 points twice. With the amount of change coming their way in 2026, however, the Blue Devils could have a very different personality.
Running back Nate Sheppard, an 1,100-yard rusher as a freshman, returns and is joined by transfers CJ Campbell Jr. (Rutgers/FAU) and Wilhelm Daal (Yale). The line could be pretty solid, too, with two returning starters and two solid transfers in all-Sun Belt tackle Nick Del Grande (Coastal Carolina) and tackle Braden Miller (California). The passing game, however, is going to be brand new. With Darien Mensah and Cooper Barkate off to Miami, Diaz grabbed San Jose State’s Walker Eget, a veteran who threw for 3,000 yards with a torn ACL last season. Last year’s top three pass catchers are gone, but in come 1,000-yard receiver Jared Richardson (Penn), 700-yard slot man Javen Nicholas (Charlotte) and tight end Nate Kurisky (Louisville). Sheppard and Campbell are excellent pass catchers, too. This offense probably will regress after losing Mensah and Barkate, but it doesn’t have to collapse.
The defense could go either way. A solid run defense must replace its top four linemen and two of three linebackers, but a secondary that was far too inexperienced last year is returning four sophomores and juniors and adding cornerbacks Che Ojarikre (Stanford) and Dylan Flowers (Western Kentucky) and safety Patrick Smith-Young (North Texas).
Diaz didn’t load up on transfers in the front seven, choosing instead to trust his succession plans. Six sophomores and juniors saw at least 100 snaps last season, and players such as junior tackle Preston Watson and blue-chip sophomore end Bryce Davis could be ready to shine. With excellent linebacker Luke Mergott returning as well, the defense might be able to improve enough to counter offensive regression. And with six ACC games projected within one score, per SP+, it wouldn’t take much overachievement for the Blue Devils to threaten for another nine-win season or conference title berth. (Of course, it wouldn’t take much underachievement for things to go pretty far south.)
• Head coach: Dave Doeren (14th year, 95-70 overall)
• 2026 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.9 average wins (4.7 in the ACC)
Like Pitt, NC State has been the utter definition of a borderline top-40 team under Dave Doeren. In fact, taking out the brief collapse of 2019, the Wolfpack have averaged an SP+ ranking of exactly 40.0 from 2014 to 2025. They’re extremely reliable in the way they produce one good unit and one disappointing unit and win between six and nine games every year.
The Pack rallied late in 2025 to turn a 4-4 start into an 8-5 finish, and in junior CJ Bailey, Doeren has the best returning quarterback in the conference, per Total QBR.
TruMediaBailey is an exciting playmaker, a scrambler who doesn’t run himself into sacks much. But the rest of the State offense has been almost completely rebuilt, with last year’s top rusher, top four pass catchers and three starting linemen departing. Sophomore running back Jayden Scott is solid after contact, but this is yet another case in which portal finds are vital: Doeren added eight skill corps transfers, the most exciting of whom are probably receivers Victor Snow (Buffalo) and Joshisa Trader (Miami). The Wolfpack offensive line will be particularly big as always but might ask for a lot from All-AAC tackle Jimarion McCrimon (East Carolina) and 6-foot-8, 345-pound FCS transfer Jai’Lun Hampton (UT Martin).
The defense, once one of the nation’s best, has ranked outside the SP+ top 60 in back-to-back years. The run defense was reasonably disruptive last season, but the combination of a nonexistent pass rush and a young secondary led to far too many big plays allowed. Six defensive backs with at least 200 snaps return, and five are sophomores or juniors, as are transfers Ty White (North Carolina) and Ondre Evans (Georgia). The addition of senior safety King Mack (Penn State) could be vital, but the most important new player might be edge rusher Harvey Dyson (Tulane), who recorded eight sacks and 12 TFLs for the American Conference champ. I also like the addition of 6-foot-3, 336-pound tackle Katron Evans (Marshall) up front, especially with last year’s top two tackles gone.
Bailey alone gives State upside, and that could be important with a front-loaded schedule featuring games against Virginia, Vanderbilt and Louisville — all of whom have new starting QBs — by Oct. 3. A hot start is possible, but the defense and receiving corps definitely have questions to answer.
• Head coach: Jake Dickert (second year, 9-4 overall)
• 2026 projection: 56th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)
Let’s be honest: Wake Forest should have stunk last season. After two straight 4-8 seasons with sub-90 SP+ rankings, Dickert inherited a pretty blank slate, and the Demon Deacons were projected ahead of only Stanford in the ACC. Their offense was dramatically all-or-nothing and suffered too many turnovers and red zone failures. The defense, meanwhile, was composed mostly of Group of 6 and FCS transfers with almost no proven holdovers.
TruMediaWake most assuredly didn’t stink. The offense certainly suffered some no-shows (four games with 16 or fewer points), but the Deacs won three of those games because of a tough-as-nails defense that ranked ninth in both success rate allowed and yards allowed per play. They were flawed but tenacious, going 4-1 in one-score finishes and finishing 9-4. That’s hard to do with an inefficient offense and a negative turnover margin.The defense returns some thrilling players, including ends Langston Hardy and Gabe Kirschke (combined: 23 TFLs, 12 sacks) and one of the best nickelbacks in the league in junior Davaughn Patterson. In all, nine of the 17 players with 200-plus snaps return, and Dickert added three mid-major starters — including corners Deuce Blades (FIU) and Bernard Causey III (Georgia State) — and a couple of FCS stars in tackle Matt Herron (Weber State) and linebacker Vincent Firenze (Dayton). If the corners are hits, the defense will be excellent again.
The offense will start over, but, well, that doesn’t have to be a terrible thing. Star receiver Carlos Hernandez is back, as are three offensive linemen who combined for 14 starts last season. But former South Alabama star (and North Carolina bust) Gio Lopez will likely take over at quarterback, and he’ll distribute the ball to Hernandez and a fun mix of lower-level standouts in running back Sawyer Seidl (North Dakota) and receiver Wondame Davis Jr. (UTEP) and young former higher-profile recruits in running back KD Daniels (Florida) and receivers Ny Carr (Miami) and Chase Tyler (Duke). The line was probably the best part of last year’s offense, so losing four starters isn’t great, but five transfers should assure some level of experience. And even if the offense doesn’t progress a ton, the defense should still drive a bowl-caliber season.
• Head coach: Tosh Lupoi (first year)
• 2026 projection: 57th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.1 in the ACC)
You’ve had a lot of reason to notice California of late. Over the past two seasons, the Golden Bears have hosted “College GameDay,” birthed the Calgorithm and beaten a couple of ranked teams (and nearly beaten others). Their starting quarterbacks have been (a) a future No. 1 pick in the NFL draft (Fernando Mendoza) and (b) a blue-chip freshman who threw for nearly 3,500 yards out of the gate (Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele).
They also went 13-13 in these two seasons. Almost any way you split it, this is a .500 program — Cal is 62-68 over the past 11 years and 149-143 over the past 24. Despite all the recent attention, Justin Wilcox couldn’t steer out of the .500 rut and was sent packing after nine years in charge. Now it’s Lupoi’s turn to try something different. Long regarded as one of the best recruiters in the game, the former Cal defensive lineman spent the past four seasons fine-tuning an excellent defense at Oregon, and he succeeded in his first task in Berkeley: keeping Sagapolutele.
The second task was building a brand-new supporting cast. We’ll have to wait to see if that one went well. The Golden Bears return four offensive linemen who were responsible for 32 starts up front, and tight end Mason Mini and receiver Mark Hamper will be familiar faces in the receiving corps. But otherwise JKS will be working with newcomers such as running backs Adam Mohammed (Washington), Carter Vargas (Cal Poly) and Ashten Emory (UTEP), receivers Chase Hendricks (Ohio), Ian Strong (Rutgers) and Cooper Perry (Oregon), and linemen Jimothy Lewis Jr. (Mississippi State) and Ashton Rivera (Kent State). I didn’t love the hire of coordinator Jordan Somerville, if only because I’m allergic to the words “pro style” — the 30-year-old Somerville spent the past three seasons with the Tampa Bay Bucs — but there should be depth and talent around JKS.
For a defense that offered little up front and lost star corners Hezekiah Masses and Brent Austin, Lupoi seemed to make a point of loading up on young former blue-chippers, including tackle Jericho Johnson (Oregon), outside linebackers Solomon Williams (Texas A&M), Kamar Mothudi (Oregon) and Emmanuel Okoye (Tennessee) and safety Kingston Lopa (Oregon). He did grab some veterans such as tackle Jayden Williams (North Texas), edge rusher Justin Beadles (Louisville) and corners Marquis Groves-Killebrew (Arizona) and Daniel Harris (Georgia), and there are some useful returnees — tackles Nate Burrell and Derek Wilkins, edge Jayden Wayne, safety Aiden Manutai, nickel Cam Sidney — but coordinator Michael Hutchings might need a bit of time to turn this collection into something useful.
• Head coach: Bill Belichick (second year, 4-8 overall)
• 2026 projection: 58th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.1 in the ACC)
The less mentioned about Belichick’s collegiate head coaching debut, the better. His first transfer class didn’t have nearly as much talent as he and general manager Michael Lombardi seemed to think, and Lombardi’s “33rd NFL team” quote got recycled for all the wrong reasons during a dreadful 4-8 campaign.
Bill Belichick seems to have a better plan for his second season at UNC, but the bar was set pretty low after Year 1. Gregory Fisher/Icon SportswireConsider it a mulligan year, I guess. Belichick seems to have a bit more of a plan this time around. Coordinator Bobby Petrino comes to Chapel Hill to run the offense; although he hasn’t been able to keep his bosses from getting fired, he generated clear offensive improvement at both Texas A&M and Arkansas in recent seasons. Belichick brought in three transfer tight ends and a Patriot League star (Lehigh WR Mason Humphrey), which feels very Belichick-ian, but the most important newcomer will be the quarterback. Veteran Billy Edwards Jr. was solid at Maryland before missing most of last season with injury at Wisconsin. His ceiling is debatable, but he should set a higher floor anyway, and the return of physical running back Demon June and slot man Jordan Shipp is welcome. Four returning linemen combined for 10 starts last season, and along with transfers JacQawn McRoy (Arkansas) and Andrew Threatt (Charleston Southern), there’s plenty of size. But no one’s even slightly proven.
Steve Belichick’s defense was a bright spot in 2025, pulling a solid bend-don’t-break routine by limiting big plays and red zone TDs. Star end Melkart Abou Jaoude (10.5 sacks) returns, as do big men Leroy Jackson and Isaiah Johnson and nickel Kaleb Cost, but another pair of Patriot League transfers — end Donovan Hoilette Jr. and linebacker Peyton Seelmann, both of Richmond — could be key.
Belichick bears the burden of proof, but it’s not hard to see potential improvement if the defense is a top-40 unit and Petrino engineers at least average output. But for reasons good or bad, the Heels will likely be a main character early in the season again: They face TCU in Ireland in Week 0, will visit Clemson in Week 3 and host Notre Dame in Week 5. Either they pull an upset and generate some “Belichick redemption?” headlines, or they start a demoralizing 1-3 with a run of “Belichick retirement?” headlines.
• Head coach: Fran Brown (third year, 13-12 overall)
• 2026 projection: 69th in SP+, 4.5 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
After a delightful 10-win debut in 2024, Brown’s Syracuse was in excellent shape last September, starting 3-1 with an upset of Clemson. But quarterback Steve Angeli, solid in four starts, was lost for the season to injury against Clemson, and the offense bottomed out with replacement Rickie Collins to such a degree that Brown gave walk-on freshman Joseph Filardi three starts. He was even worse. Syracuse averaged just 11.1 points per game after Angeli’s injury and lost eight straight by an average of 27.5 points.
It’s impossible to shake the memory of that ineptitude until Brown’s team gives us a reason to, but I like a lot of the moves he made this offseason. On offense, he brought in three experienced transfers, including Kennesaw State’s delightful dual-threat Amari Odom and fallen former blue-chipper Malachi Nelson (UTEP), to fend off disaster if Angeli isn’t ready or effective. Running back Ahmad Miller (Jackson State) is exciting, and in wideout Cole Weaver (Miami-Ohio) and tight end Noah Meyers (Western Kentucky) and young former blue-chippers Elijah Moore (Florida State) and Matt Outten (Penn State), a new receiving corps appears to have both size and potential. The same goes for an offensive line that returns five players with starting experience, including four who were freshmen or sophomores last year (average size among the five: 6-foot-6, 331 pounds).
Brown landed some fun transfers on defense, but the most important newcomer is coordinator Vince Kehres, whose Toledo defenses ranked 32nd in SP+ in 2023 and 21st in 2025 and absolutely dominated against the pass last season.
Kehres inherits an aggressive pair of cornerbacks in Demetres Samuel Jr. and Chris Peal and solid linebackers in Antoine Deslauriers and Gary Bryant III. But if he’s going to generate the pass rush he’s accustomed to, it will likely come from transfers: FCS All-American Keyshawn Johnson (UT Martin) had 13.5 sacks last season, and the big duo of Tunmise Adeleye (UNLV) and Jartavius Flounoy (Georgia State) combined for nine sacks at 290 and 306 pounds, respectively. Syracuse has regressed by at least 20 spots in defensive SP+ for three straight years, and I’m confident that trend will stop even if massive improvement isn’t on the table yet.
Head coach: Bill O’Brien (third year, 9-16 overall)
2026 projection: 74th in SP+, 4.0 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)
First impressions are frequently misleading. In 2024, Boston College began O’Brien’s first season 4-1 with random big plays on offense and a physical and unforgiving defense. Even when the Eagles faded a bit down the stretch, I was impressed enough to think O’Brien could build something fun.
Since that 4-1 start, however, BC is 5-15. During last year’s 2-10 collapse, the offense had its efficient moments but suffered countless implosions in terms of sacks and turnovers, and the defense, promising the year before, was simply not good at anything. The Eagles’ D couldn’t create disruption or turnovers, and it gave up an endless stream of big plays.
In response to the dismal season, O’Brien did something I generally don’t like, taking over as his own offensive coordinator and hiring an old hand (Ted Roof) to run the defense. But he also signed a really intriguing transfer class. From the mid-major ranks, he landed 1,339-yard rusher Evan Dickens (Liberty), a couple of offensive line starters in Reggie Jackson (Jacksonville State) and Owen Snively (Eastern Michigan), and linebacker Anthony Palano (Washington State), among others. From the lower levels, he grabbed quarterback Mason McKenzie (Saginaw Valley State), receiver Reed Swanson (Colgate), two more offensive linemen and defensive end Alex DeGrieck (Harvard). A couple of former blue-chip defensive linemen — end Kris Jones (Georgia) and tackle KJ Sampson (Florida State) — could come in handy quickly too.
McKenzie’s spring was up-and-down, as one might expect when jumping from Division II to the ACC, but he’s a good dual-threat QB who could pair well with Dickens, and he’ll have a strong tight end in sophomore Kaelan Chudzinski at his disposal. The offensive line is a total rebuild, but the transfers are appealing.
The 62-year-old Roof hasn’t helmed a particularly effective defense since the 2010s, and he doesn’t seem to have a ton to work with. Most of the secondary returns, but it’s a secondary that helped BC rank 126th in yards allowed per dropback. There’s size and depth up front, but it feels like the offense is closer to a breakthrough than the defense. Of course, I’d have mentioned the exact opposite a year ago.
• Head coach: Tavita Pritchard (first year)
• 2026 projection: 77th in SP+, 3.9 average wins (2.4 in the ACC)
Over the past five seasons, Stanford has gone 9-5 against teams ranked worse than 80th in SP+ and 7-39 against everyone else. The Cardinal’s average SP+ ranking in that span: 102.8. In the post-COVID 2020s, this has comfortably been the worst power conference program in existence.
To turn things around, Stanford is basically doubling down. General manager Andrew Luck, a former Jim Harbaugh quarterback, hired Pritchard, another former Harbaugh quarterback, as head coach. Pritchard hired former Stanford offensive line coach Terry Heffernan as his first offensive coordinator. He did go outside the Farm family in grabbing former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard to run the defense, but the faces of this program are primarily Stanford grads.
I am not confident. The Cardinal did improve late in 2025 under interim coach Frank Reich, and they have some exciting individual talents: Running back Micah Ford is solid after contact, guard Simione Pale was excellent in 2024 (and injured for much of 2025), linebacker Matt Rose makes a tackle every 6.1 snaps, and junior cornerback Brandon Nicholson is one of the ACC’s best. But the most proven receiver is a Yale transfer (Nico Brown), the defensive line is replacing four of six, and even with Nicholson, the pass defense undid any gains provided by a solid run defense. Meanwhile, the physical Stanford run game — the core of the Harbaugh/David Shaw golden years — hasn’t existed for years. Even with Ford breaking tackles, Stanford averaged 3.9 yards per non-sack carry last season, 132nd nationally.
At quarterback, it appears Michigan transfer Davis Warren is the likely starter. He’s 24 and by all accounts a good leader, but he also has averaged just 5.4 yards per dropback in his career with seven TDs to 10 INTs. Any major growth will likely have to come from the defense, and experience at linebacker and in the secondary could help there. I worry about a thin defensive line, though.
Most of Pritchard’s spring quotes used the word “competition.” That was a favorite of Harbaugh and Shaw, too, and I’m sure the Cardinal will fight with plenty of heart. But after five straight seasons of dreck, it’s going to take more than fight to start turning the program around.
Twenty years ago, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech played the weirdest ACC championship game imaginable. Thanks to the legacy of the ACC Coastal division, we’re used to oddities in the ACC title race, but 20 years ago we got one of the most unexpected conference title runs and one of the funkiest title games in the history of the league.
The 2006 title game produced zero touchdowns. Wake kicker Sam Swank was the MVP. Honestly, Tech punter Durant Brooks might have deserved co-MVP honors. Georgia Tech’s Reggie Ball was 9-for-29 passing. Tech legend Calvin Johnson caught eight balls for 117 yards, and 59 other Tech snaps gained just 255 yards. The teams went a combined 9-for-31 on third downs and 1-for-4 on fourth. And after the ultimate battle of attrition, Jim Grobe’s Wake Forest team lifted the trophy. It certainly wasn’t great football, but it was beautiful in its own way.
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