Where all 30 MLB teams stand after 2026 trade deadlineBradford DoolittleAug 7, 2026, 07:00 AM ETClose
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
trdzLuis Arraez has five hits and four RBI in his first three games with Philadelphia. How did his addition impact their postseason chances? Mitchell Leff/Getty ImagesThe All-Star break, the Hall of Fame induction and the trade deadline have all come and gone since we last convened for a Stock Watch. Each of those touchstone events is distinctive and intrinsic to the annual rhythm of the baseball calendar. But now that they are behind us, we can focus on what this is all about: the playoff races.The August version of this series invariably doubles as a deadline postmortem, as we see how the roster maneuvering has combined with the past month of results to alter the playoff projections. With that in mind, I’ve tried to quantify a snapshot of where every team sits now that the dust has settled from a particularly frenzied deadline.Editor’s Picks
2026 MLB trade deadline recap: Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers go big
MLB trade grades: Red Sox add Rutschman; Cubs get Holmes from Mets
Tallest tree? Most promising active ones? Breaking down famous MLB trade trees
In addition to the usual Stock Watch measurements, I’ve taken a stab at looking how complete each team’s roster is, expressing it as a percentage. The basic details are in the methodology box. The idea is that for contenders, it’s a look at how well-situated a team is for the playoff push and a potential October run. For the noncontenders, it’s a glimpse at just how much work they have to do so that their future Augusts and Septembers are a little more dramatic.
For each team, I’ll touch on the factors behind that percentage as well as how the club’s deadline activity is reflected in that number. It’s a simple expression — a percentage — but there is a lot of data behind it for every team. It suggests what has been done and, more importantly, what is left to do.
Jump to a tier:
Top-tier contenders | Second-tier contenders
Teams just hanging on | Teams looking ahead
Top-tier contenders
Teams with a 90% or better shot at the playoffs
1. Milwaukee Brewers
Win average: 98.7 (Last Stock Watch: 99.9, second)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.9%)
Champions: 18.6% (Last: 18.3%)
Roster is 72% complete, ranking fourth in MLB.
“Disappointing” is how I’d characterize the Brewers’ deadline execution, which I had ranked as last in the majors. Antonio Senzatela and JoJo Romero are meaningful additions to the bullpen. I’m excited to see what the Brewers’ pitching machinery does with Dustin May. And Milwaukee remains a really good — borderline great — team with a real shot at winning the World Series. But given the package the Tigers ultimately accepted from the Dodgers for Tarik Skubal, it feels like a missed opportunity for the Brewers. Now, it’ll be up to the Brewers to do Brewers things with May in hopes he’ll become the pitcher they needed behind Jacob Misiorowski. The baseline talent is there — and these are the Brewers — so maybe this was their plan all along.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Win average: 97.1 (Last: 106.2, first)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 100.0%)
Champions: 13.8% (Last: 36.1%)
Roster is 90% complete, ranking first in MLB.
How we ranked the teamsThis Stock Watch is based on a roster-forecasting model built from the neutral-context version of the Steamer projections from FanGraphs along with over/under lines and World Series/pennant odds in the betting markets. These were used to create a baseline win expectation for each team that served as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the 2026 schedule, yielding our win forecasts and postseason probabilities.Note: Each team has been assigned a “percent complete” rating based on an analysis of what its roster would look like in a postseason context. Each player is assigned a “true talent” rating based on actual results and prospect grades, then assigned to a specific roster slot under one of five units: regular position players, reserve hitters, top four starting pitchers, top five relievers and key reserve pitchers.Each roster slot is compared to the comparable slot for the other 29th teams — each team’s top starting hitter is compared to every other team’s top starting hitter, the third-best starting hitter is compared the other 29 third-best starting hitters, and so on. The process is completed for every roster slot on a standard playoff roster. Players currently injured are included if they have not been revealed as out for the season. Reserves are aggregated into two depth ratings, one for hitters and one for pitchers.Each team’s score for each slot is based on their percentile ranking in that slot. Thus the range of scores goes from 100 (100th percentile) to zero (ranked last). The ratings are summed across all roster slots, then divided by 2000 (the maximum possible team rating). That yields each team’s roster completion percentage. Keep in mind that the only way a team could achieve a completion percent of 100% is if it had the top rated player at every single roster slot.
So the Dodgers landed Tarik Skubal, parting with some excellent prospects whose value they can easily absorb, like an amoeba made of ambrosia taking a new form — and, no, I don’t know what ambrosia is exactly, but I’m sure the Dodgers have cornered the market in it. The other pickups were former Rockies reliever Seth Halvorsen, injured lefty Kris Bubic, and a pair of journeyman catchers, Ben Rortvedt and Hunter Feduccia. The catchers were a matter of sudden need because of the ongoing neck trouble of Will Smith and the elbow injury to Dalton Rushing. Landing Rortvedt and Feduccia was a nifty pivot since they both were with the Dodgers in recent years and should be easier to assimilate. Smith should be back by the playoffs and they will at least have Rushing as a hitter. The Dodgers had the best deadline of any team according to my metrics — though that rating is entirely because Skubal is so much better than every other player who was moved. Before I implemented the roster completion metric I had only previously sketched out, I knew no team could ever be 100% — that was my intention. Then, I would have guessed that getting to 90% would be unlikely as well. But here we are.
3. Atlanta Braves
Win average: 96.6 (Last: 92.2, 4th)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 92.8%)
Champions: 15.6% (Last: 5.3%)
Roster is 73% complete, ranking third in MLB.
The Braves have been panned for their deadline, and I get it. Even with Chris Sale, Atlanta’s injury-ravaged rotation (45% complete, 16th) doesn’t rank among the elite, but journeyman Tyler Mahle was the only addition to that group. Overall, I ranked Atlanta’s deadline at 24th in overall efficiency and 18th in terms of big league true talent added. The Braves have good pitching depth overall but where the rotation suffers by comparison is the lack of a true powerhouse 2-3-4 pecking order behind Sale. Though the Braves don’t seem particularly vulnerable to regression across their roster, there is some risk within the current group of starters, namely Grant Holmes, Martin Perez and Bryce Elder. It just feels as if Alex Anthopoulous could have done more.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Win average: 94.9 (Last: 93.0, third)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 98.6%)
Champions: 13.0% (Last: 9.7%)
Roster is 63% complete, ranking 11th in MLB.
I hate to point out what I’m about to point out because I know the Rays are way smarter than me. But by my numbers, I had the Rays with the third-worst deadline of any club. The were 16th in big league true talent added but traded the highest total prospect value by my measure. Of course, the latter was made possible because the Rays had a lot of minor league talent from which to deal. I had them with the top system before the deadline and though the gap has since closed, that’s still true. They did drop a little in terms of near-ready talent but not by much. But just to add Tyler Wells and Freddy Peralta? Peralta has been having a bad season — and had a poor Rays debut. On top of all this, I have the Rays as the second-most vulnerable roster to the scourge of negative regression. This all sounds dire, but maybe the Rays are way ahead of me.
5. Chicago Cubs
Win average: 92.2 (Last: 88.7, sixth)
In the playoffs: 97.7% (Last: 78.4%)
Champions: 7.1% (Last: 3.4%)
Roster is 69% complete, ranking sixth in MLB.
There has been some mixed responses to the Cubs’ deadline and while I haven’t tallied them up, I’d say the reviews tend to be largely positive. Those that were less sanguine were probably fixated by the sight of Skubal at Wrigley Field this week wearing a not-Cubs uniform. I had the Cubs with the eighth-best deadline: They added the fourth-most big league true talent but sent away more prospect value than all but four teams. So it was kind of a standard execution of an aggressive deadline strategy. The roster now looks really good, especially the healthy October version of it. There’s one exception — the revamped bullpen (23% completion, 24th) still looks like a question. It feels as if the performance of that group will determine how far the Cubs go in 2026.
6. New York Yankees
Win average: 90.8 (Last: 90.0, fifth)
In the playoffs: 98.5% (Last: 95.7%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 8.5%)
Roster is 68% complete, ranking eighth in MLB.
A couple of things are holding back the Yankees in terms of roster completion. One is that because we have to use a full starting lineup, someone has to go into the hopper at catcher. George Lombard Jr. also drags the number down a little, but only because his rating is based on prospect grades and you have to be careful with those. Finally, the Yankees’ pitching depth ranks 29th in this system. If that’s even close to right, a rash of injuries to New York’s pitchers could sink them. One last thing: Helping this roster rating is that it assumes Aaron Judge will be back for the playoffs — at which time they might be facing the team right below them in these rankings, and this time without home advantage.
7. Boston Red Sox
Win average: 90.3 (Last: 77.6, 20th)
In the playoffs: 97.8% (Last: 20.9%)
Champions: 8.2% (Last: 0.5%)
Roster is 81% complete, ranking second in MLB.
Just look at Boston’s probabilities compared to where the Red Sox were a month ago. It’s incredible. And when you consider what their roster could look like in the postseason — which is what the roster completion metric is meant to address — they look like the most complete team in the AL. (I’m picturing Craig Breslow walking around Boston, asking passersby “how do you like them apples?” in a heavy Southie accent.) This rating does express a large amount of optimism about some ongoing issues — it sees Adley Rutschman getting healthy and playing at something close to his true talent level. It sees Curtis Mead returning by the playoffs. Same goes for Garrett Crochet, though at this point if he makes it back it appears it would be as a reliever. In terms of overall depth, as it’s measured in this system, the Red Sox now rank third. The key question: What the heck were the Red Sox doing through June 24?
Second-tier contenders
Teams with playoff odds between 30% and 89%
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
Win average: 85.8 (Last: 80.3, 16th)
In the playoffs: 65.3% (Last: 14.5%)
Champions: 1.5% (Last: 0.1%)
Roster is 49% complete, ranking 18th in MLB.
I was a little surprised to see the Diamondbacks’ roster fare sort of poorly in this new measure, but considered in that light, it makes their slow deadline even more disappointing. And boy was it slow. Lars Nootbaar in, two prospects out. The three players put in motion by Arizona is the second fewest of any team, behind the going-nowhere Athletics. The Diamondbacks remain well positioned for a wild-card slot, but they look like the sixth-best team in that mix with a less-than-comforting buffer between them and the host of teams chasing them like San Diego and Pittsburgh. Particularly egregious was the lack of any additions to the rotation (28% complete, 25th). Even that group has been only as good as it has been because Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Soroka have overachieved. I don’t get it.
9. Philadelphia Phillies
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 87.7, seventh)
In the playoffs: 65.0% (Last: 72.1%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 2.1%)
Roster is 67% complete, ranking ninth in MLB.
A future iteration of the roster completion rating will need to include category ratings, not just roster slots. For the Phillies, their rating for team defense would bear particular scrutiny as they’ve juggled their alignment to accommodate newcomer Luis Arraez. But I loved that pickup for them, even if Dave Dombrowski’s vision for that addition was entirely different than what I assumed. I thought Alec Bohm would be headed for a platoon role, not to first base. I did not see Bryce Harper returning to the outfield. And I sure as heck didn’t have Arraez batting cleanup, as he has done in his first games for the Phillies. But I love that idea too! In terms of RBI vs. expectation (based on RBI, RBI opportunities and league averages), Arraez ranks 11th in baseball with a figure of plus-13.9, more than five runs better than any other Phillie. It’s almost as if Dombrowski knows a thing or two about baseball.
10. Chicago White Sox
Win average: 83.8 (Last: 83.3, 12th)
In the playoffs: 58.7% (Last: 59.4%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 1.2%)
Roster is 51% complete, ranking 17th in MLB.
2026 MLB trade deadline gradesTrade season has officially wrapped up! Here’s our running scorecard for every big move. Trade grades »
The White Sox have overachieved this season. That’s not really going out on a limb — and stating it as fact doesn’t mean they can’t win the AL Central. In fact, right here, the numbers say they have a better than 50-50 chance of doing just that. Still, it’s worth remembering that this very young team has been a little over its skis and is more subject to regression than most. (More than all but three teams, per my regression factor, a measure I began tracking for … this article.) I am on board with Chris Getz adding at the deadline, though he did offload a little too much prospect value for my taste. But the thing that strikes me now is the extent to which Getz targeted players having lousy seasons — whether due to performance, injury or both. We’re talking about Luis Castillo, Brenton Doyle and Joey Bart. Bart probably shouldn’t count in this conversation because something had to be done about the catching spot one way or another. But Castillo and Doyle are both well below replacement value this season. For the 2026 White Sox, there is a lot riding on Castillo and Doyle offsetting some of the negative regression that figures to be coming for much of the rest of the roster.
11. Houston Astros
Win average: 83.4 (Last: 79.8, 17th)
In the playoffs: 66.0% (Last: 31.9%)
Champions: 3.4% (Last: 0.6%)
Roster is 65% complete, ranking 10th in MLB.
The AL West title has been just kind of sitting there all season for someone to pick up. For a few weeks now, the once-flagging Astros have looked like the team willing to seize the opportunity. Houston has the division’s best record by at least three games whether you look at increments of the last 10, 20, 30 or 50 games. The offense now leads the AL in scoring after struggling earlier, and that’s reflected above — Houston’s lineup registers as 65% complete, ranking fifth. That included the addition of Daulton Varsho to man center field. The sore spot remains the rotation (29% complete, 24th), particularly the depth of it. Hunter Brown has been getting right, so if Peter Lambert can stave off regression, in this division the Astros can probably make it work. Still, you would have liked to see that unit addressed at the deadline, since Spencer Arrighetti was dealt for Varsho.
12. San Diego Padres
Win average: 83.3 (Last: 77.9, 19th)
In the playoffs: 35.2% (Last: 5.5%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 0.1%)
Roster is 63% complete, ranking 12th in MLB.
I didn’t love the Padres’ deadline, at least in terms of the direction, though it was another aggressive trading period for A.J. Preller. By adding Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, there’s little question that he improved a rotation that I now rate as 69% complete, ranking ninth. The bullpen is third while the overall pitching depth is middling. Their season really comes down to whether San Diego’s aging offense can produce down the stretch. The starting lineup (44% complete, ranking 19th) has been the unexpected sore spot. But seven of the nine regulars have underachieved, as compared to their true talent level, so Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts are among those candidates for improvement going forward.
13. Cleveland Guardians
Win average: 81.9 (Last: 84.6, 10th)
In the playoffs: 41.9% (Last: 74.1%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 2.3%)
Roster is 68% complete, ranking seventh in MLB.
In the fog of the aftermath of Monday, I wasn’t really too high on the Guardians’ deadline and in fact didn’t feel as if they’d done as well as division foe Chicago. Now that I’ve crunched up all the numbers, I’d flip-flop that assessment. I have my qualms with each of Cleveland’s primary pickups but together, Jo Adell, Foster Griffin and Nathaniel Lowe all fill gaps in the Cleveland roster and provide some veteran balance to a young group. (And, yes, Griffin is a rookie, but the guy is a veteran presence if there ever was one.) I had the Guardians with the second-best deadline overall and as the second-most add-heavy group. In other words: They did the exact thing I’ve caterwauled about them not doing for years.
14. Texas Rangers
Win average: 81.5 (Last: 83.0, 13th)
In the playoffs: 38.0% (Last: 62.8%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 1.8%)
Roster is 56% complete, ranking 15th in MLB.
Not much has changed for the Rangers from before the deadline, which is itself disappointing because Texas is in position to grab hold of the AL West. The Rangers rank in the middle of the pack in just about everything. It’s a high-floor/low-ceiling dynamic but one in which the ceiling feels as if it’s about three feet away from the floor. Without much help in the way in the form of new arrivals, Texas will rely on better health and improvement the rest of the way. On the latter front, the Rangers made me want to create a quick-and-dirty regression factor to see how they rated, so I did. They ended up 16th, so they’re in the middle of the pack there, too.
15. Miami Marlins
Win average: 81.2 (Last: 85.7, ninth)
In the playoffs: 16.1% (Last: 55.8%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 1.1%)
Roster is 38% complete, ranking 21st in MLB.
The Marlins registered as deadline subtractors, though there was some fence-straddling mixed in, such as the addition of reliever Victor Vodnik from Colorado — he can step in for the opening created by dealing Lake Bachar to Pittsburgh. Liam Hicks was a productive player but replaceable given the emergence of Joe Mack, and if the recently recalled Agustin Ramirez returns to his rookie-season prowess at the plate, he’ll fill Hicks’ role nicely. Meanwhile, the Marlins finished fourth in prospect value added and in particular improved their standing in near-ready prospect value. In the end, the Marlins are about where they were before the deadline in short-term outlook and maybe improved their longer-term outlook a smidge. Really, not much about which to complain.
16. Detroit Tigers
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 77.0, 21st)
In the playoffs: 34.4% (Last: 16.4%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 0.4%)
Roster is 58% complete, ranking 14th in MLB.
The Tigers’ rotation measures at 41% complete. Suffice to say, a week ago it would have rated a whole lot better than that. Unsurprisingly, the Tigers traded the most big league true talent of any team this year. They did also bring back the third-best total of prospect value, making them the second-most subtract-heavy team in the majors. Meanwhile, the Tigers have played moderately well lately and are very much in range of both the last AL wild-card slot and the AL Central title. It’s not impossible that Detroit could make the playoffs after deadline subtraction for the second time in the past three years. This year would feel different, though — because the Tigers won’t have Tarik Skubal to take the ball in Game 1.
17. Seattle Mariners
Win average: 80.7 (Last: 85.8, eighth)
In the playoffs: 32.3% (Last: 83.2%)
Champions: 1.3% (Last: 6.5%)
Roster is 72% complete, ranking fifth in MLB.
Fifth! My new system has the Mariners with the fifth-most-complete roster in baseball. Yet here they are, 17th in Stock Watch. The Mariners’ problem is clearly not one of roster construction. As for the deadline, Seattle wound up in the add class, though not emphatically so. The trade of Luis Castillo to the White Sox was more than offset in true talent by the additions of Taylor Ward and Seranthony Dominguez. The Mariners ranked ninth in big league talent added and were right in the middle of the pack in net prospect value lost. Thus it was a solid, unspectacular deadline for Jerry DiPoto whose biggest need remains the same as it was last week at this time: His best players just need to play better.
Teams just hanging on
Teams on the “miracles do happen” tier
18. Pittsburgh Pirates
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 82.0, 14th)
In the playoffs: 9.0% (Last: 24.6%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.6%)
Roster is 59% complete, ranking 13th in MLB.
Ugh, the agony of the Pirates fan. This year’s Bucs are so, so close to being a special group, and yet things keep going wrong. And — for once — very little of it is actually the fault of the Pirates’ brain trust, or their oft-frugal owner. The Pirates were aggressive last winter. They were aggressive at the deadline, building out what was a lackluster bullpen into a deep, versatile group. You could argue that maybe the Pirates should have attacked that area earlier, but the reliever market was slow to take shape until it exploded. The overall roster is balanced and deep — when healthy. But the Pirates were already dealing with the injuries to Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz. Now Ryan O’Hearn and Mitch Keller have joined them on the IL. If Pittsburgh is to make its way into the October bracket, this team would be competitive — but with each day and each injury, the team’s path to the postseason keeps getting more or more narrow.
19. St. Louis Cardinals
Win average: 79.6 (Last: 84.2, 11th)
In the playoffs: 7.7% (Last: 40.3%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)
Roster is 25% complete, ranking 26th in MLB.
The Cardinals are the perfect example of why I wanted to create a roster completion estimate that wasn’t based strictly on 2026 results. Since St. Louis has hovered around .500 all season and remains on the fringe of the playoff picture, it might give the impression that the team’s rebuild has advanced much more rapidly than anticipated. Certainly this No. 26 ranking in roster completion was negatively affected by the decision to deal Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar and JoJo Romero — above-average players on the true talent scale. But even with them, construction on the next really good Cardinals roster was very much in medias res. Chaim Bloom picked the right deadline strategy. In terms of execution, he did well there, too, ranking seventh in my deadline efficiency metric.
20. Baltimore Orioles
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 76.2, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 14.8% (Last: 10.3%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 0.1%)
Roster is 35% complete, ranking 22nd in MLB.
I’m pretty consistent about getting annoyed by teams that offload when they have a reasonable chance to get into the playoffs. Sure enough, in the week leading up to the deadline, my simulations had the Orioles with a roughly one-in-five chance to get into the postseason, even if the only slot probably available to them was the AL’s final wild card. I had them as a fence-straddler for deadline behavior — and instead, only two teams traded more big league true talent. On the flip side, the Orioles added more prospect value than anyone. That combination made Baltimore the most aggressive subtractors of any club. And yet after an initial post-deadline dip because of the trimmed roster, the Orioles won a few games and climbed back to what you see here — a 15% chance at the playoffs. For me, the key to how the direction taken by Mike Elias will come to be viewed depends not just on how the acquired prospects end up performing, but how soon they are ready to help. This is not a fanbase in a mood for continued kicking the can down the road.
21. Minnesota Twins
Win average: 79.1 (Last: 79.8, 17th)
In the playoffs: 14.9% (Last: 33.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.7%)
Roster is 40% complete, ranking 19th in MLB.
The Twins made noise about adding before the deadline, but the degree to which they did was surprising. Not included in my measurements of deadline performance is an assessment of what teams didn’t do. In Minnesota’s case, that includes keeping Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan. Minnesota then came out of the deadline and face-planted in Kansas City. The Twins have the run differential of an eventual 76-win team and, like the other middling teams in the wild-card cluster of the AL, access to a playoff slot has narrowed because of the surge of the Red Sox. Sure, you can question whether the Twins should have dealt so extensively from their organizational depth, but it’s still a refreshing approach for this franchise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Teams looking ahead to 2027 and beyond
Playing out the string and hoping for better luck next time
22. Washington Nationals
Win average: 77.5 (Last: 80.7, 15th)
In the playoffs: 2.5% (Last: 15.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Roster is 27% complete, ranking 25th in MLB.
As good as the Nationals’ offense has been this season, the trade of Luis Garcia Jr. leaves the lineup top-heavy, overly reliant on James Wood and CJ Abrams. The rotation, not a strength anyway, is now one of baseball’s worst after dealing Foster Griffin. I have the Nationals executing their recommended deadline strategy (full disclosure: the recommendation was mine, or at least from a formula I created) better than only one other team — the Brewers, whose deadline execution was widely panned. Only the Tigers (Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize) moved more veteran true talent, but eight teams added more prospect value. The direction (subtraction) was probably defensible despite the Nats’ modest level of contention, but I didn’t love the execution.
23. Cincinnati Reds
Win average: 76.6 (Last: 71.9, 24th)
In the playoffs: 1.9% (Last: 0.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Roster is 39% complete, ranking 20th in MLB.
The Reds’ rotation (75% completion, ranking eighth) and overall pitching depth are a great foundation. But the offense is a horror show. The Reds are scoring 0.33 runs per game fewer than the MLB average despite playing in one of baseball’s most offense-friendly parks. Cincinnati has slightly outhomered its opponents, but that’s a bug, not a feature. Only the Mariners and Yankees have relied more on homers for offense and no team has had more plate appearances that terminated in one of the three true outcomes. Say what you will about batting average, but the Reds’ .230 mark is not tenable. They need players who get the ball into play.
24. Toronto Blue Jays
Win average: 76.2 (Last: 75.9, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 3.0% (Last: 9.0%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Roster is 51% complete, ranking 16th in MLB.
This completion percentage is a gentle reminder that as disappointing as the Blue Jays’ season has been, it’s a roster with much to offer going forward. That justifies the fence-straddling approach by the front office at the deadline. The starting lineup rates as 46% complete, ranking 18th, so there is some infusion to be done there because regressions in health and performance probably won’t be enough to get it done. That reported, most of the Blue Jays’ key hitters are underperforming as compared to their true talent rating, none more than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Blue Jays aren’t totally out of the hunt this season but even assuming that they don’t pull up a miracle rally, there’s no reason why Toronto shouldn’t be right back in the thick of the AL East race next season.
25. New York Mets
Win average: 69.1 (Last: 68.3, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Roster is 31% complete, ranking 23rd in MLB.
David Stearns made something out of the lemons this season presented him; it’ll be some time before we know if that something turns out to be lemonade. If these don’t pan out, it wasn’t for a lack of trying. The Mets landed 11 prospects via deadline trades, two more than any other team. I have them behind the Orioles in prospect value gained, but it would still be wrong to declare the incoming group as one of quantity over quality. Stearns’ post-frenzy big league roster reflects his teardown of the Mets’ bullpen, which now rates as just 8% complete, ranking 29th, ahead of only the Angels. That’ll be an area of offseason focus, but there isn’t a group on the Mets that isn’t ailing — quite a statement about a team that still projects to have a luxury tax bill larger than the entire payroll of a couple of teams.
26. San Francisco Giants
Win average: 68.1 (Last: 69.8, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Roster is 23% complete, ranking 27th in MLB.
The tenure of Buster Posey as an executive remains a matter of scrutiny but for all the criticism he has received this season, he had a very solid deadline. According to my measure of prospect value gain, the Giants ranked fifth, landing three players who should rank in their top 10-15 (Ramon Marquez, Henry Lalane and Miguel Mendez) in addition to Kaeden Kent, son of Giants Hall of Famer Jeff Kent. Though my prospect rankings should be taken as a short-hand version, I’ll be interested to see how the various prospect experts rerank San Francisco — I have them climbing from eighth to fourth. That’s good news for Posey, because the big league roster certainly needs a lot of work.
27. Kansas City Royals
Win average: 67.9 (Last: 67.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Roster is 28% complete, ranking 24th in MLB.
As expected, the Royals didn’t do much at the deadline — there really wasn’t much for them to do. The healthy version of Kansas City’s roster looks moderately more complete than its current Stock Watch ranking suggests, but that’s not to say there isn’t work to be done. Even with the injuries in the rotation — some of which will carry over into next season (Cole Ragans, Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila) — the Royals have a solid foundation in that group. The challenge will be to deepen the lineup and almost completely revamp the bullpen. It’s a lot to do given what is likely to be limited payroll flexibility and too few prospects pushing up from below.
28. Athletics
Win average: 63.7 (Last: 0.0, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Roster is 15% complete, ranking 28th in MLB.
The most disappointing part of the Athletics’ season is that an offense with the potential to be so dynamic now looks riddled with holes. The starting hitters rank 27th in collective true talent, as even Nick Kurtz has disappointed in not building on his epic rookie season. The pitching (28th in completion percentage in rotation, bullpen and pitching depth) needs a lot of work. Still, one of the keys to the rest of this season and heading into the hot stove months (insofar as the labor talks will allow then), is determining how much bounce-back potential the Athletics have in their group of talented hitters.
29. Colorado Rockies
Win average: 62.7 (Last: 63.6, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Roster is 12% complete, ranking 29th in MLB.
The seven prospects the Rockies added in deadline trades were tied for the third most in MLB, though I have their prospect value gained ranked just eighth. Overall, it was a tepid strategy by the Rockies. Despite trading relievers Antonio Senzatela, Victor Vodnik and Seth Halvorsen, Colorado still has enough decent relievers to rank 25th in that area in the roster completion percentage algorithm, putting them a little bit further down the line to contention than the Angels. Still, this rebuild is still very much in its early days.
30. Los Angeles Angels
Win average: 61.9 (Last: 63.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Roster is 9% complete, ranking 30th in MLB.
The Angels’ roster needed a lot of work even before interim GM John Mozeliak dealt Jose Soriano, Jo Adell and others at the deadline. Though many expected Reid Detmers and Zach Neto to move as well, Mozeliak decided not everything has to get done all at once. While it’s nice to see someone running the Angels chart a clear direction and heading for it, things remain murky — we don’t know who’ll be calling the shots after this season. There’s not a unit on this team that doesn’t need a whole lot of help.
