Even before Incredibolt ran his first race, jockey Jaime Torres told anyone who would listen that the horse was “the next Sovereignty.” Comparing an unraced 2-year-old to the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner may have been overly premature, but after winning three of his last four starts Incredibolt has made the starting gate for the 2026 Kentucky Derby and has a chance to prove that Torres was right all along. Bet Incredibolt and the entire Kentucky Derby at TwinSpires, where new users who click through our links get a supersized $400 sign-up bonus:
11 Incredibolt (20-1)
- Trainer: Riley Mott
- Jockey: Jaime Torres
- Last race: First in the Virginia Derby by 4 lengths
- Career record: 5 starts: 3 wins
- Career earnings: $498,681
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 88 (Virginia Derby)
- Sire: Bolt d’Oro
Below, we’ll dig further into Incredibolt as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 152nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2. We’ll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances. FanDuel Racing offers a $25 bonus with a $5 bet. Claim it here:
What to know about Incredibolt
Sovereignty Junior? The nickname fits because there are similarities.
Both are trained by Motts. Sovereignty is handled by hall of famer Bill Mott, while Incredibolt is conditioned by Bill’s son, Riley. The younger Mott will be competing in his first Kentucky Derby and has two starters in the race: Incredibolt and Wood Memorial winner Albus.
What’s more, both Sovereignty and Incredibolt burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a victory in the Street Sense Stakes. Sovereignty won the race in 2024, one year before Incredibolt’s victory. To be fair, Sovereignty won the Street Sense by 5 lengths and earned an 87 Beyer Speed Figure, while Incredibolt won it by 1¾ lengths and earned an 82.
In the end, speed figures might be the biggest difference between these two. While Sovereignty entered last year’s Kentucky Derby as a major contender based on speed figures, Incredibolt’s figures — whether Beyer or Thoro-graph — say he’s too slow to win and will need to improve significantly to be a contender. The good news for Incredibolt backers is that he is coming off the fastest performance of his career: a 4 length win in the Virginia Derby, which earned a Beyer of 88. For comparison, Further Ado’s best Beyer is 106, while Commandment, The Puma, Chief Wallabee and So Happy all have 100 Beyers.
But there are reasons to think that Incredibolt is being “wildly slept on,” according to one prominent sports media commentator and horse owner.
Incredibolt has won three of his last four starts. And his only defeat over that time came at Gulfstream Park, which Riley Mott says Incredibolt didn’t like, after a three-month layoff. That performance can be forgiven.
Incredibolt also is a perfect 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs, including the Street Sense victory around two turns, and success under the twin spires certainly helps. Four of the last five Kentucky Derby winners had previously won at Churchill.
And while he beat a subpar field in the Virginia Derby, Incredibolt showed a big finishing kick in the race, completing the last three furlongs in a strong 36.14 seconds. That suggests the extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby will be to his benefit.
The seven week layoff since the Virginia Derby is a concern; since 1929 the longest layoff for a Kentucky Derby winner has been six weeks (excluding the COVID year of 2020). But Incredibolt has been training sharply at Palm Meadows, so fitness should not be an issue.
Prominent sports media commentator and horse owner Dave Portnoy posted on X last week that “I think this horse is wildly slept on,” so keep an eye on Incredibolt’s odds at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET. Claim our jumbo-sized 1/ST BET offer here to get a $500 sign-up bonus:
Post draw analysis
In addition to his powerful late kick, Incredibolt has shown an ability to pass horses on the inside throughout his career, a trait that is invaluable in the 20-horse traffic jam that is the Kentucky Derby. He drew well in the No. 11 post, and from there jockey Jaime Torres should be able to get to the rail at some point if that’s the trip he wants.
