The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby will offer a betting angle for everyone when the race begins at 6:57 p.m. E.T. on Saturday.
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Fans that want a feel-good story have a number of options. Cherie DeVaux will attempt to become the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby with Golden Tempo. Mike Smith, 59, is trying to become the oldest jockey to win the race. Smith, who has the mount on So Happy, won in 2005 with Giacomo and 2018 with Triple Crown winner Justify.
Riley Mott, 33, will try to beat his father Bill Mott, who won the Derby last year with Sovereignty and is attempting a back-to-back with Chief Wallabee. The younger Mott has entered Albus and Incredibolt.
There’s the traditional betting angles as well.
Can favored Renegade win from the No. 1 post, which hasn’t produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986? Can Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean and Six Speed, who have never raced in the United States, break the trend of non-winners? Of the 18 horses who have raced exclusively outside of the U.S. prior to the Derby, only Forever Young hit the board in 2024.
Here’s our guide to this year’s Kentucky Derby: all the top storylines, betting angles and what you might have missed in the year since the last Run for the Roses.
What have I missed?
The Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Preakness were won by two different horses last year. Sovereignty beat Journalism by a length in last year’s Derby, skipped the Preakness (which was won by Journalism) and came back to win the Belmont Stakes, which was hosted at Saratoga last summer due to renovations at Belmont Park. Journalism finished second again in the Belmont.
Both horses are still in training and made their 4-year-old debuts in the Oaklawn Handicap at Oaklawn Park on April 18. White Abarrio, the 7-year-old winner of the Pegasus World Cup last year, beat them both, with Sovereignty finishing in front of Journalism by a head for second place. White Abarrio was a 2022 Kentucky Derby contender, who finished 16th in that race.
Baeza, the third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby last year, also remains in training and will make his 4-year-old debut in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs on Friday. Baeza’s trainer John Shirreffs died at 80 in February, and Baeza will now be trained by Bill Mott, who trained Baeza’s dam, Puka.
There have been some changes with the Triple Crown itself. This year’s Preakness will be run at Laurel Park while Pimlico, its home since 1870, undergoes renovations.
Churchill Downs Inc., the owner of Churchill Downs and several racetracks, recently declared a deal to acquire the rights to the Preakness brand following the 2026 running of the race. While that won’t change anything for this year’s Triple Crown, it brings up questions about potentially spacing out the Preakness and Kentucky Derby beyond the two-week gap that has been in place for 70 years.
The Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga again for the third straight season, with plans to return to Belmont Park in 2027.
Why should I have a rooting interest?
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Trainer Mark Glatt has his first Derby entrant at 53 with So Happy. So Happy, who was initially sold at auction for $12,000 (and later sold again for $150,000), was bred by 94-year-old Leverett Miller. Smith, who is often listed as 60 but has told reporters that he is 59, will ride him in his record-29th Derby mount.
But while So Happy’s connections are a feel-good story, it comes with an undercurrent of sadness, as Glatt will attempt to win his first Derby without his wife Dena, who died in February.
While Smith is attempting to become the oldest jockey to win the race, Christopher Elliott, 20, is one of the youngest jockeys to race in the Derby in recent history. Elliott will ride Right to Party, and if he wins, he’ll follow in the footsteps of his father Stewart Elliott, who won the race with Smarty Jones in 2004 and is still actively riding.
What are some betting angles?
One angle to consider is running style — some horses prefer to run in the front, some are comfortable mid-pack and others are closers, who trail the leaders early and make a big run late.
There are pros and cons to each running style. A horse who runs too fast up front might tire itself out by the end of the race. A closer might run into traffic or not be able to run down the winner if the leaders are running an easy pace at the front. Mine that Bird, a 50-1 longshot, is the last horse who pulled off the “last to first” feat in 2009 due to a rail-saving trip by jockey Calvin Borel.
In the last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby, no horse has officially led wire-to-wire (War Emblem and Authentic have been the only ones to do this since 2002) and no horse has trailed from last but rallied to win.
Sovereignty, a closer, was in 16th place a half-mile into the race and led the pack down the stretch. Mystik Dan, a stalker, was closer to the pace in 2024, racing in sixth a half-mile into the race and in first after a mile. Mage was in 16th place a half-mile into the race in 2023 and rallied to pass the leader at the end. Rich Strike, an 80-1 shot who drew into the race late, benefited from a fast early pace from the leader and closed from 18th a half-mile into the race to pull out a shocking win over favored Epicenter in 2022. In 2021, Medina Spirit, who was later disqualified due to a positive drug test, led wire-to-wire in a win that was eventually given to Mandaloun.
Fun stats to know
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The most common colors of Derby winners are bay (58) and chestnut (50). The most common birthplace of winners is Kentucky (117), while only six Japanese-bred horses have entered the race, with one third-place finish (Forever Young in 2024).
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The last horse bred outside North America to win the race was Tomy Lee in 1959.
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Trainer Brad Cox will enter two horses in the Derby (Commandment and Further Ado; Fulleffort was scratched), but entering multiple horses doesn’t translate to a sure win. Of the 32 instances of a trainer entering at least three horses (and as many as five), only four won (D Wayne Lukas in 1995 with Thunder Gulch and in 1996 with Grindstone and Todd Pletcher with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017.
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No horse has ever won from the No. 17 post out of 46 starters, while 10.4% of winners have come from the No. 5 post from 96 starters, the most recent being Always Dreaming in 2017. Post positions with a big drought are the No. 1 post, the No. 2 post (Affirmed in 1978 was the last winner), the No. 9 post (Riva Ridge was the last winner in 1972), the No. 12 post (Canonero II last won in 1971) and the No. 14 post (Carry Back last won in 1961).
What should I know about the jockeys?
A jockey’s decisions can certainly make or break a race in a crowded field. Borel’s ground-saving trip got Mine the Bird the win in 2009, while former jockey Gary Stevens has blamed himself for moving too soon on Point Given in 2001, causing the heavy favorite to fade to fifth while Monarchos won the second-fastest Derby of all time.
Of the jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, Flavien Prat leads with more than $15 million in purse money won in 2026, while Irad Ortiz. Jr and his brother Jose Ortiz led in number of wins this year. Prat has won the Eclipse Award for best jockey two years in a row, Irad Oritz has won the award five times since 2018 and Jose won in 2017.
Another notable angle is which jockeys selected their horse from multiple opportunities. While this decision isn’t always about which horse they think is the most talented (sometimes business decisions and loyalties to connections factor in), it can give some insight into who the jockey and his agents think has the best chance to win the race.
Irad Ortiz won Derby prep races on four different horses (Commandment, Further Ado, Fulleffort and Renegade) and ultimately chose Renegade. Ortiz has ridden for Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby before, but has yet to win.
Prat won the Florida Derby on Commandment but is riding long shot Emerging Market in the Derby.
Jaime Torres rides both Albus and Incredibolt for Riley Mott and will ride Incredibolt, whom he has ridden in every one of his races.
Hector Berrios has ridden Intrepido in his past five starts and stays on him Saturday, while Mike Smith has been on So Happy for every start. Junior Alvarado has been on Chief Wallabee in all three of his starts and Jose Ortiz will ride Golden Tempo for the fifth time.
Martin Garcia will ride Litmus Test for the first time, and Luis Saez will ride Commandment for the first time.
How should I bet the race?
There will be a lot of money bet on Renegade, but the No. 1 post has been notoriously difficult in the modern era. With so many horses to choose from, he’s not at the top of my bets.
Further Ado’s 11-length win in the Bluegrass was extremely impressive, although some might feel it could take too much out of him before the Kentucky Derby. I disagree, and think he might be the best horse in the race. The Puma and Commandment are two other horses I consider top tier in this race.
In my betting chart I tried to toss horses I don’t think have a shot at winning, and come up with a second tier of horses who have a chance to win or hit the board. This group includes Renegade, Danon Bourbon, So Happy, Incredible, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market and Golden Tempo.
152nd Kentucky DerbyPost**SilkHorseML OddsTrainerJockeyNotes1Renegade4-1Todd PletcherIrad Ortiz Jr.Closer – Talented, but though post. Connects have finished 9th (2021) and 5th (2022) from this post2Albus30-1Riley MottManny FrancoStalker – Sire Yaupon was a sprinter3Intrepido50-1Jeff MullinsHector BerriosStalker – Has not improved as a 3-year-old4Litmus Test50-1Bob BaffertMartin GarciaStalker – Jockey could try to take him to front early; had a poor showing in last race5Right to Party30-1Kenny McPeekChris ElliottCloser, could pick off some tiring horses at the end but a longshot6Commandment6-1Brad CoxLuis SaezStalker – Won by 11 lengths in last start7Danon Bourbon20-1Manabu IkezoeAtsuya NishimuraStalker – All three starts in Japan have been at 1 1/8 miles or longer, but two on muddy tracks8So Happy15-1Mark GlattMike SmithFront runner – Sire Runhappy was a champion sprinter, hard to know how far he can go9The Puma10-1Gustavo DelgadoJavier CastellanoStalker – Lost to Commandment last race10Wonder Dean30-1Daisuke TakayanagiRyusei SakaiStalker/Closer – Japanese bred, jockey finished 3rd in 2024 Derby11Incredibolt20-1Riley MottJaime TorresStalker – Has two wins at Churchill Downs, last race was Virginia Derby win on March 1412Chief Wallabee8-1Bill MottJunior AlvaradoStalker – Blinkers on in Derby, connections won 2025 Derby, 1 win but could hit the board13Potente20-1Bob BaffertJuan HernandezFront runner – Will likely try for lead, trainer has six official Derby wins14Emerging Market15-1Chad BrownFlavien PratStalker – Has only raced twice, but won both; Won Louisiana Derby15Pavlovian30-1Doug O’NeillEdwin MaldonadoFront runner – 10 lifetime starts, hit the board last 3 races, closer to pace in last two races16Six Speed50-1Bhupat SeemarBrian Hernandez Jr.Front runner – Will likely try for lead, has never raced in US17Further Ado6-1Brad CoxJohn VelazquezStalker – Very impressive Blue Grass where he won by 11 lengths18Golden Tempo30-1Cherie DeVauxJose OrtizCloser – Lost momentum in Louisiana Derby when moved inside down the stretch, finished third19Great White50-1John EnnisAlex ArchardStalker – Led in Blue Grass but faded, very big longshot20Ocelli50-1Whit BeckmanJoe RamosCloser – Has never won a race, cam e in third in Wood MemorialTerrell’s Tiers: Green = Contender Grey = Don’t count out Red = PretenderML Odds = Morning line odds**Because of scratches, the number reflects the post the horse will break from, not the number on their saddlecloth.See the recent odds by DraftKings
One option is to pick one to three horses who you like and put them on top of several bets. For example, I like Further Ado, so I could place him on top of bets in exactas and trifectas, put another group of horses in the second-place position, and a third group of horses to potentially come in third. Or box a group of horses in exactas so that you win the bet regardless of what order they finish; if it’s boxed either one can come in first or second but you double your price. The more horses you add, the more money you’re risking, sometimes to the point where you can “win” and still lose money.
Don’t worry if it sounds confusing — it is to a lot of new horse bettors — but if you’re looking to dive in, here are some bets I would make.
To win: Further Ado
Exacta Box: Further Ado, Commandment, The Puma
Exacta Option 2 (Unboxed): Further Ado // Commandment, the Puma, Renegade, Incredibolt, Chief Wallabee
Trifecta: Further Ado, Commandment, The Puma // Further Ado, Commandment, The Puma, Renegade, Incredibolt, Chief Wallabee // Renegade, Incredibolt, Chief Wallabee, Danon Bourbon, So Happy, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo
(When you see “//” it means “over” in horse-betting lingo, which is how you put one or more horses “on top” of others.)
