Ivory Coast’s Yan Diomande is a must-watch World Cup breakout star; Netherlands attack could doom them, more

Believe it or not, today we hit the halfway mark of the World Cup group stage. Barely a week after it is done and when Japan wrap up against Tunisia we will, well, we’ll still have a lot of games left to play, but at least the point where we cut a third of the field out of the competition will be in sight. For tournament structure skeptics, that’s a small win.

There could, however, be many a big win in Saturday’s four games. We start with Netherlands against Sweden, an intriguing Euro-clash which might give us an indication of the former’s floor and/or the latter’s ceiling. Meanwhile, Japan will hope to get a win of their own against Tunisia, one which would have them extremely well-placed to reach the round of 32. Then there is Group E, where Ecuador have ground to make up against Curacao. We start, however, with Germany and their clash with an Ivory Coast side who have a burgeoning young star, not just of football but the game as a whole.

Yan Diomande: Must watch football

It is probably worth saying that Ecuador were a particularly well-suited first opponent for the building of the Yan Diomande hype train. An opponent that is perfectly prepared to ride their way through this tournament on defense, who will leave their fullbacks in individual duels because they back those players to win those duels. And yet, there’s a reason why you back Ecuador defender Piero Hincapie in a one vs. one. The guy got dribbled past 19 times in the Premier League all season, 1792 minutes where you’d struggle to find a single winger who got the better of him.

Diomande mullered him. Four times he dribbled past the left back Arsenal (the 1985 Chicago Bears of club football right now) go to when they want to keep things tight at the back. Ecuador tried giving Hincapie additional protection. It didn’t work. When Amad Diallo came on in the second half, Hincapie got a break. Ecuador didn’t. Diomande switched onto the left and just roasted the other full back. Look at how many of his carries got him into the penalty area.

Then again, all that ball carrying is something you might have priced in with Diomande. If you were familiar with his debut season at Germany’s RB Leipzig you knew this was a guy who could dribble to devastating effect off both flanks and both feet. The question that had to be addressed away from the famously up-and-down Bundesliga is how much threat he poses if you take the dribble away from him. 

As it turns out, quite a lot. I wasn’t aware they taught these kinds of roll the ball off your right foot, onto your left and then slice a ball in between two players passes on Daytona Beach.

Maybe I should have known better. Diomande averaged 0.37 expected assists with RB Leipzig last season. Combine that with 0.26 non-penalty xG and that aforementioned dribble production and you have a legitimate triple threat forward, a guy who can beat you with the pass, shot or dribble. No wonder that Liverpool look at him and see a nine-figure signing. Against some familiar opponents in Germany, the rest of the world might just come around to their way of thinking.

The Netherlands… huh?

For most teams, we’re 90 minutes through the World Cup. It’s fine not to have much of a read on them. I will also admit that, following this competition from the United Kingdom, many of these games are after my bedtime. A few days ago I stated I was excited to learn more about Uzbekistan. Reader I do not yet feel like that is a mission I have accomplished.

The Netherlands, though? We see their players week in, week out in Europe’s top leagues. Even in this relatively down cycle for the Dutch game, there is talent on Ronald Koeman’s bench that most of his counterparts would give their left arm for. Japan approached Saturday’s game as if they were playing a legitimate contender, keeping bodies back until Virgil van Dijk broke the deadlock early in the second half.

A legitimate contender, however, puts up much more than four shots worth 0.41 xG in the second half. Some of the issues behind that underpowered attacking output were fairly apparent before the tournament. The attacking input, that’s pretty underpowered too. A front three of Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen and Crysencio Summerville just isn’t going to create that many shots for itself. 

You would think Ryan Gravenberch and Frenkie De Jong could plug some of those offensive gaps. Gravenberch had his moments and ended the game with two assists. De Jong, however, was too intent on dropping deep between the center backs to build play against passive opponents. Tijani Reijnders is a walking reminder that even with all their money, Manchester City find midfield recruitment as hard as the rest of us.

It didn’t look good for large stretches of the game. When it did and Koeman changed things up, it looked worse. Maybe this is because Japan were a tricky opponent for whom the talent differential was not that pronounced. Or maybe this is a fairly underwhelming team, the sort who are at real risk of being undone by Sweden and sent tumbling into a potentially tricky part of the draw.

Can Ecuador score the goals they might need?

You should know the deal with Ecuador by now. Incredible defense, can’t score for toffee. In their 18 qualifiers they conceded just five goals. They scored 14, six of them home and away to Bolivia. 

Sebastian Beccacece’s side were brilliant in qualifying and it is easy to understand why they looked at the shape of the fixture list and concluded that the Ivory Coast was the game to approach with a bit of caution. In a tournament setup where the eight best third-placed teams advance, four points and third place gives you a very, very good chance of advancing. According to the projection model of Expecting Goals, even with a negative goal difference you will make the knockout stages 99 times out of 100 if you can draw one and win another. When you’re in a group with Curacao, why not play to get your other point on the board at the start?

Project Four Points hasn’t quite gone out of the window. A defense as good as Ecuador’s could absolutely lock Germany out. They probably wouldn’t though. So now Beccacece is going to have to think about trying to run up the score with forward options, many of whom have seen too many winters, or too few. Enner Valencia was hardly a volume scorer 12 years ago. Now he’s 36. No one else in the squad, however, has scored more than eight goals. Valencia has more goals than this squad combined. Can he score enough to give Ecuador a nice goal difference cushion if it comes down to third place and a goal difference calculus? I’m not so sure.