It has been eight years since the Kentucky Derby favorite prevailed in The First Jewel of the Triple Crown. That will immediately lead many to fade Renegade with their 2026 Kentucky Derby bets at 4-1. Five of the last six Kentucky Derby favorites have finished in the money, but this is a trend to keep in mind when making 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions. Renegade is one of two colts with single-digit 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, the other being his half-sibling, Commandment (7-1).
Another half-brother of those two is the Bob Baffert-trained Potente, who is attempting to give the trainer his record-breaking seventh Derby victory. Potente is a 16-1 horse racing longshot, per the newest 2026 Kentucky Derby betting odds. The race is set for Saturday, May 2 from Churchill Downs. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
Bet the Kentucky Derby with the newest TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets to wager on almost any track by clicking here:
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and called the exacta in last year’s Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One of Demling’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (7-1), even though the Florida Derby winner is one of the favorites. The horse is trained by Brad Cox, who won as a Kentucky Derby rookie in 2021, but has seen just one of his last 10 starters finish in the money. Those starters have an average finish of 10.4, as Cox, a native of Louisville, hasn’t been able to recapture the magic of his Derby debut. One of those last 10 starters, Angel of Empire (2023), was the favorite in the final odds but could only muster a third-place finish.
Commandment may have also already peaked as a racehorse, as he reached his career-best speed figure while winning the Fountain of Youth in February. His next race took place four weeks later, and despite a longer distance, and thus giving the horse more time to build up his speed, his speed figure dipped from the Fountain of Youth. Even though Commandment is the second-favorite, Demling has multiple horses finishing ahead of him. See who to back at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Renegade, who at 4-1 is trying to become the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. It’s been a mixed bag for Kentucky Derby favorites recently as this seven-year drought without a victory immediately followed a six-year run (2013-18) in which the favored horse won every year. Renegade has won both of his starts as a 3-year-old, including the G1 Arkansas Derby in late March. This comes after going winless as a juvenile across three races.
Renegade was sired by Into Mischief, who won his lone start on dirt at the 2007 CashCall Futurity but never attempted a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. Saddled by Todd Pletcher, Renegade has the most experienced trainer in Kentucky Derby history. Pletcher’s had 65 starters at the Run for the Roses, which is 14 more than any other trainer. Two of those horses have prevailed at Churchill Downs for Pletcher, but none of his last 13 Derby starters have finished in the money. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the newest TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets to wager on almost any track by clicking here:
Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (17-1), who is looking to best the third place that his sire, Gun Runner, achieved at the 2016 Kentucky Derby. While Gun Runner didn’t win The Run for the Roses, he did win six other G1 races, so Further Ado has pedigree in his favor, at least on one side. The latter’s dam, Sky Dreamer, made six stakes starts during her thoroughbred career, failing to win any of them.
Further Ado is one of the few Derby contenders who can boast winning experience at Churchill Downs, courtesy of winning a G2 event at the track as a 2-year-old. His 3-year-old season started off with a runner-up at Tampa Bay and then a victory at the Blue Grass Stakes. There have been 11 horses that have won the Blue Grass and then gone on to triumph at the Kentucky Derby, and Further Ado is looking to be the first to pull off that double since 1991. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on an epic double-digit longshot who “demolished the field” in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the newest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2026 Kentucky Derby odds
| Renegade |
4-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Commandment |
7-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| The Puma |
12-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Chief Wallabee |
13-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Emerging Market |
15-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Potente |
16-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Further Ado |
17-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Incredibolt |
22-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Danon Bourbon |
23-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Fulleffort |
23-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Golden Tempo |
32-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Silent Tactic |
32-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Wonder Dean |
42-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Class President |
53-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Six Speed |
93-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| So Happy |
93-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Albus |
173-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Ottinho |
208-1 |
SEE PICKS |
| Right to Party |
317-1 |
SEE PICKS |
