We are guaranteed an eighth different NBA champion over the past eight seasons when the 2026 Finals tip off Wednesday night with the New York Knicks visiting the San Antonio Spurs. It’s a rematch of the 1999 Finals won by the Spurs in five. This marks the 35th rematch in NBA Finals history, and the original winning team is 17-17 the previous 34. That ’99 Finals was the last time the Knicks got this far.
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We’ve got model and experts picks galore for the series, so I won’t go too much into that, as I don’t really have a strong opinion other than hating the Knicks. But those fans deserve an NBA championship for the first time in 53 years. The Spurs have won plenty of titles fairly recently and are going to be juggernauts for the foreseeable future as long as Victor Wembanyama stays healthy.
The teams had three three “regular-season” meetings, and the Knicks won two of them with one the NBA Cup championship game in Las Vegas. Wembanyama averaged 24.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in the three games. Knicks star Jalen Brunson averaged 26.0 points on 42% shooting from deep, along with 7.7 assists, in the three games.
And clearly the story of the 2026 Finals is the two superstars and how different they are with a 14-inch height gap between the 7-foot-4 Frenchman Wembanyama and the 6-foot-2 Brunson, who is from Chicago. That gap is the largest between each team’s leading scorers in an NBA Finals all-time. The previous mark of 13 inches was in the 2001 Finals between the Lakers’ Shaquille O’Neal and 76ers’ Allen Iverson.
Wembanyama won the Western Conference Finals MVP and Brunson won the Eastern Conference version, so as you would expect they are the clear favorites for Finals MVP, with Wemby at -190 and Brunson at +200. To no surprise, Wemby’s MVP price is the same at DraftKings as the Spurs’ price to win the series (Knicks are +160). If they do win it, surely he’s the MVP.
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The Knicks’ guard was +2800 for Finals MVP entering the playoffs (OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the +105 favorite) simply because New York wasn’t given a great chance to win a title but then caught fire. Brunson dropped to +1200 entering the East semifinals and then +750 entering the conference finals. BetMGM is very exposed on Brunson, as he’s taking the highest handle (24.2%) and most tickets (16.5%) at the book on this prop.
Brunson looks to join legends Isiah Thomas, Tony Parker and Steph Curry as the only players 6-foot-2 or shorter to lead an NBA champion in playoff scoring. Brunson is averaging 26.9 points in these playoffs (third among all players) and is +135 to lead this series in total points. To average at least 25 points, he is -185. Brunson hasn’t played in the fourth quarter in the three closeout wins in these playoffs because New York has been so far ahead. The Knicks have won 11 in a row overall and have taken six straight road games by at least 10 points, the longest streak in NBA playoff history.
Wembanyama was +7000 for NBA Finals MVP way back on the season’s opening night, as few in the NBA world expected the Spurs to take such a massive leap to contention this quickly. Wemby was +600 for Finals MVP entering Round 1 of the playoffs, +400 for the conference semifinals and then +350 entering that epic West final vs. Oklahoma City. Should Wemby win, he would join Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the only guys to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year and Finals MVP.
The book is also exposed on Wembanyama, as he’s second in handle (22.5%) and tickets (14.45%). The 22-year-old is the youngest player in NBA history with a first-team all-NBA selection and NBA Finals trip in the same season and could pass former Spurs legend Tim Duncan as youngest to lead an NBA champion in points per game.
But Wemby, the -170 favorite to lead the series in total points and -140 leader for total rebounds, can’t become the youngest Finals MVP, as Magic Johnson won it at age 20. Wembanyama is in the Finals at only one week older than LeBron James was when he reached his first Finals in 2007 with Cleveland. Wemby can surpass Kobe Bryant as the youngest player in history to average 25.0 points per game and win a title in the same season.
San Antonio can become the second team in league history to win a title two or fewer seasons removed from a 60-loss season. The 1998-99 Spurs did it in Duncan’s second year when he earned Finals MVP at age 22. San Antonio is 6-0 Finals Game 1s.
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I’d love to recommend someone other than the two franchise players for Finals MVP, but usually it’s the superstars who win the award – the last non-superstar to do so was Golden State’s Andre Iguodala in 2015 — and only one other player in the series is priced below +5000 at BetMGM this year. It is also exposed on Karl-Anthony Towns, as KAT has moved from +15000 entering the playoffs to +2200 and is taking the third-most MVP tickets at 9.3%.
