I had pondered writing about Milwaukee Brewers ace and NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misoroswki’s matinee start in St. Louis today, but I don’t see a ton of betting value there. I definitely do for a series opener between the Mariners and hugely surprising Marlins from Miami. It’s a 6:40 ET first pitch, and ace Max Meyer is going for the hosts.
Mariners vs. Marlins MLB same-game parlay
- Miami money line
- Alt Under 5.5 first five inning runs
FanDuel SGP price: +150
It means absolutely nothing to me on who wins NL Manager of the Year, but I guess I don’t understand why Atlanta’s Walt Weiss (+240) is so massively ahead on the FanDuel odds board for that award and Miami’s Clayton McCullough is only a fifth-favorite at +900. Sure, Weiss has the Braves leading the NL East. But they are the big-market, stacked Braves. They were supposed to be contenders in the Senior Circuit.
On the other hand, that was certainly not the expectation for Miami (49-42), which has finished with a losing record each of the past two seasons but is only four games back of the Braves and streaking. Entering the season, it had a win total of only 72.5 and was priced +500 to make the postseason. The only three NL clubs with longer odds were the Cardinals (+600), Nationals (+1600) and horrid Rockies (+3500).
I will note St. Louis is really playing above expectations as well, and its manager, Oliver Marmol, is ahead of McCullough for the NLMOY Award at +800. The Cardinals are a half-game behind Miami for the final NL wild card spot currently.
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Now the Marlins are priced -330 to win at least 80 games – it probably will take a minimum of 83 victories, at least that was the case in 2025, to earn an NL wild card spot – and are +190 at DraftKings for extra baseball with No at -235, so the books are still skeptical. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Marlins an updated win total of 82.8 and a 35.6% chance at the postseason, which equates to +181.
Miami returns home from a very successful 10-game trip at 7-3 — including taking two of three in St. Louis, which could have tiebreaker ramifications down the line — and it won’t head out on the road again until after the All-Star break. The Marlins are an excellent 28-17 at home this season despite the fact they draw flies at 12,735 per game, ahead of only Sacramento, and many fans who do attend often are rooting for the visiting team. Probably not tonight, as there aren’t a ton of Mariners folks located thousands of miles away from Seattle in South Florida.
One of the breakout pitchers in the Senior Circuit this season has been Meyer, who is 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA, 112 strikeouts and 1.11 WHIP yet way down at +10000 for the NL Cy Young. He was named an All-Star for the first time, along with shortstop Otto Lopez. Miami has multiple All-Stars for the first time since 2023. The 27-year-old Meyer is the first Marlins starting pitcher to be named an All-Star since ace Sandy Alcantara’s 2022 NL Cy Young Award-winning campaign.
Meyer had been the only qualifying MLB starter without a loss until last Wednesday when he allowed five runs, but just one earned, over six innings in a defeat at Colorado. All four runs off Meyer in the fifth were unearned after an error by second baseman Javier Sanoja extended the inning. Meyer started the season with nine straight wins without a loss to tie the franchise record.
He has been worth $565 if you wagered $100 on Miami to win all 18 of his starts. He is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA and .202 opponents’ batting average in nine at home. Meyer’s lone career outing vs. the Mariners was last season in Seattle, and he was knocked around for five runs in four innings of a loss. But he was not near the same pitcher in 2025.
The model projects Meyer at 5.5 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 5.7 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs tonight. He’s +179 to win at DraftKings (tempting) and set at 6.5 Ks.
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Meanwhile, last Tuesday I wrote a story here at CBS Sports about the crazy home/road splits of Seattle’s Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.17 ERA). The righty continued his home dominance that night against the Angels with a victory to improve to 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA and .156 OBA at T-Mobile Park. Away, the 26-year-old is 1-6 with a 6.38 ERA and batters are hitting .284 against him.
Woo is in his fourth big-league season but has avoided the Marlins thus far. The team has stated this will be his final start pre-break. The model projects him at 6.2 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs.
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Monday was one of the strangest MLB days of the season, and I got burned a few times. Just remember the last week before the break is always rather bonkers as guys eye that time off. But everything seems to line up here.
I’d be fine with just Marlins money line. but +150 is a nice price. I preferred alt Under 5.5 in the first five instead of alt Under 10.5 full because after Monday’s silliness I really don’t want to mess around with bullpens potentially. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
