The 2026 MLB returns from its midsummer break on Thursday, July 16, albeit with just a single game. Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, which just hosted the 2026 All-Star Game, is host to the first game of the second half of the season, as Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies host Juan Soto and the New York Mets. The Phillies (54-43) are a scant two games behind the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. The same cannot be mentioned of the last-place Mets (40-57), who own the second-highest payroll in baseball. Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA) goes for the Phillies, while the Mets hand the ball to Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17). First pitch is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies are -136 favorites on the money line (risk $136 to win $100) in the newest Mets vs. Phillies odds, with New York at +113. The over/under for total runs is 9.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Mets picks, or MLB predictions, be sure to see the Mets vs. Phillies predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and entered the 2026 MLB All-Star break on a sizzling 33-21 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anyone following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Mets:
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Mets vs. Phillies money line |
Phillies -136, Mets +113 |
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Mets vs. Phillies over/under |
9.5 runs |
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Mets vs. Phillies run line |
Phillies -1.5 (+158) |
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Mets vs. Phillies picks |
See picks at SportsLine |
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Mets vs. Phillies streaming |
Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Phillies vs. Mets predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Mets vs. Phillies, the model is going Over 9.5 combined runs for over/under betting. Prior to the All-Star Break, the Over had cashed in six of the last nine Mets games (66.7%). All season, the Over is 10-7-2 when Nola gets the ball for the Phillies. The model sees plenty of offense on Thursday.
SportsLine’s model projects 1.5 total bases or more for the Phillies’ Harper, Schwarber, Trea Turner and Brandon Marsh. The Mets, meanwhile, are projected to get over 1.5 total bases or more from Soto, Francisco Lindor, AJ. Ewing, Bo Bichette and Carson Benge. The model projects the teams to combine for 9.9 total runs as the Over hits 52% of the time. Get the Phillies vs. Tigers money-line pick at SportsLine.
How to make Mets vs. Phillies picks
After simulating every pitch of Mets vs. Phillies 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Phillies vs. Mets, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
