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We are now into May and the part of the baseball season when things become real. Spring training and April are full of lies. May is when the rubber hits the road and we get a better idea of what the season actually is. This team is for real, those players are breaking out, those guys are in for a long season, etc. May is when things settle into place.

With that in mind, here are three trends worth keeping an eye on as we get into the nitty-gritty of the season.

Ben Brown’s breakout season

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Ben Brown

CHC • SP • #32
ERA1.82
WHIP.91
IP29.2
BB9
K27

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Despite sitting in first place in the NL Central, the Cubs are pushing the limit of their rotation depth. Cade Horton (elbow surgery) is done for the season and Matthew Boyd (knee surgery) and Justin Steele (elbow surgery) will be sidelined several more weeks. It is no surprise, then, that the Cubs are already reported to be monitoring the trade market for rotation help.

Following Boyd’s injury, the Cubs opted to move late-inning reliever Ben Brown into the rotation over Javier Assad, who made three starts in April and 29 starts two years ago. Brown had emerged as a trusted high-leverage reliever for manager Craig Counsell, though he offers greater upside than Assad, so the Cubs wanted to give him another chance at a rotation job.

Brown’s first start since July 27 could not have gone better. He held the Rangers hitless across four innings this past weekend, striking out three and walking one. Two-thirds of his balls in play were on the ground. Because he had been in the bullpen, Brown was on a pitch limit in his first start, and he was efficient enough to get through four innings. He was terrific.

Brown has never lacked stuff. His upper-80s curveball is a hammer that lights up analytical models, and he’s sat mid-90s and shown a few upper-90s with his four-seam fastball. This year, Brown added a sinker, specifically to jam up righties and get quick outs. He connected with Mets starter and sinker specialist Clay Holmes over the winter near their Nashville homes and picked his brain.

“It’s almost unbelievable, just the amount of people who told me to train with this guy who I had never met in my life. It was like, ‘You’ve got to go work out with Clay. You’ve got to work out with Clay,'” Brown told MLB.com in spring training. “… He’s really kind and gracious with his time. I mean, he was helping me out so much. Mentally, physically. Probably even more on the mental side.”

Brown is now a sinker/curveball pitcher against righties and a four-seamer/curveball pitcher against lefties. He’s really improved against lefties (.419 OPS in 2026 vs. .885 OPS in 2025) thanks to better fastball location, but the sinker is a new wrinkle for righties. The pitch grades out well analytically (108 Stuff+) and hitters haven’t been able to square it up.

There is something to be reported for learning how to get outs in the bullpen and using that experience when you move back into the rotation. Different roles, yes, but the job is the same: get outs. Holmes, Michael King, and others had success in the bullpen and have since returned to the rotation after struggling as starters earlier in their careers. Brown may be following a similar path.

Luis Arraez’s improved defense

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Luis Arraez

SF • 2B • #1
BA0.311
R16
HR0
RBI14
SB4

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Luis Arraez is a lot of things, first and foremost a special hitter with a preternatural gift for getting the bat on the ball. One thing he has never been, at least not until 2026, was a good defensive player. From 2019-25, he ranked near the bottom of the league with minus-69.5 runs of fielding value, per FanGraphs. There’s a reason Arraez played so much first base and DH from 2024-25.

That’s why it was so curious when the Giants signed Arraez to play second base. In spring training, POBO Buster Posey told NBC Sports Bay Area that, “We felt comfortable that there was a solid foundation there for a guy that could play second base well,” adding that they were “really optimistic” about Arraez working with Ron Washington, San Francisco’s new infield coach.

Washington is a legendary infield coach. Marcus Semien has credited him with improving his defense when the two were with the Athletics. The Braves had arguably the best defensive infield in the game during their 2021 World Series championship year, thanks in part to Washington, who was on the coaching staff. Countless others have credited him for improving their defense.

With all due respect, Arraez may be Washington’s greatest success to date. He entered play on Tuesday with plus-4 defensive runs saved, a top-25 mark in baseball, and plus-9 outs of above average. Only Bobby Witt Jr. (plus-10) was better. Arraez passes the eye test too. He’s made some very nifty (and perhaps previously unthinkable) plays at the keystone:

“Footwork, glovework, everything is better,” Arraez told the San Francisco Chronicle about working with Washington in spring training. “… Everything’s in the right spot. My hands are in the right spot, my eyes are on the ball. All I have to do is catch the ball and throw it to first. I’m really enjoying it.”  

Is Arraez really the second-best defensive player in all of baseball, like outs above average says? No, almost certainly not, but you can see the improvement. Arraez was a clunky defender with poor range prior to this season, especially at second base. He’s getting to more balls now and making clean, stress-free plays. It’s a night-and-day difference. It really is.

Washington has a long track record of helping infielders become better glovemen and he appears to have worked his magic with Arraez. Early season defensive stats are not especially reliable, so I expect Arraez’s to come down in the coming weeks, but even just average defense would be an enormous improvement from Arraez. He really is so much better in the field.

Trevor Megill’s recovering fastball

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Trevor Megill

MIL • RP • #29
ERA5.79
WHIP1.29
IP14
BB6
K16

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From 2024-25, erstwhile Brewers closer Trevor Megill was one of the best relievers in baseball, throwing 93 ⅓ innings with a 2.60 ERA while striking out a healthy 29.3% of batters faced. That earned him a trip to last summer’s All-Star Game. Megill had a very rough start to 2026, however, allowing eight runs in his first five innings. Since then, he’s allowed just three runs in 10 innings.

A flexor strain sent Megill to the injured list late last August, and although he returned to pitch in the postseason, he was diminished. His velocity was down and the outs didn’t come as easily as they once did. Megill’s velocity has remained down this year, and at one point, he threw 44 fastballs between swings and misses. Before the injury, he averaged one whiff every nine fastballs.

Megill’s recent resurgence does not stem from more fastball velocity or more whiffs. With the caveat that this is a tiny sample, he is using his heater in a different part of the zone. He used to elevate his fastball because hitters would swing under it and be unable to square it up. Now he’s using it at the knees more than ever. Here are Megill’s fastball location heat maps:

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Megill has changed eye levels with his fastball the last few weeks.
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The result has been more pop ups and more weak contact in general. Opponents had a 97.8 mph average exit velocity against Megill’s fastball in April, an unfathomably high number. In May, that’s down to 87.3 mph. They’re hitting .167 against the pitch in May, down from .417 in April. For the time being, pitching down with the fastball is working for Megill.

Milwaukee has so much depth that Megill’s demotion out of the closer role hasn’t hurt them. Abner Uribe is getting save chances and workhorse lefty Aaron Ashby is getting the game’s biggest outs regardless of inning. He’s entered games as early as the fifth inning this year. The best version of the Brewers has Megill in a late-inning role though. Perhaps pitching down gets him back there.