The trade deadline has come and gone and dozens of deals were made in the preceding week. Now that all the midsummer pomp and circumstance (draft, All-Star Game, trade deadline, etc.) is in the rearview mirror, it’s time to focus on the actual baseball being played on the field. We’re in the dog days of August now. Soon, the postseason and award races will really heat up.
Here now are three things going on across the league that are worth keeping an eye on the rest of the season.
What’s wrong with Edwin Díaz?
Edwin Díaz
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For all the complaints about the Dodgers ruining baseball, their two big offseason pickups — Edwin Díaz and Kyle Tucker — haven’t done a whole lot this season. Tucker is barely above water as a league-average hitter, and Díaz has been shaky around elbow surgery. He’s allowed a run in four of his six appearances since returning from the injured list.
“In my opinion, if we can’t trust Edwin Díaz in the postseason, then we’re going to have big problems,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts mentioned after Díaz surrendered a walk-off home run to Ryan Waldschmidt this past weekend (via the Orange County Register). “I have to give him every opportunity to get comfortable, get back, cut his teeth, dust the rust off, whatever way you want to look at it in that role. I have to look at it that way.”
Two things stand out about Díaz post-elbow surgery. One, his already low arm slot has dropped from 17 degrees last year to 10 degrees since returning from the injured list. That has cut into the pitch’s induced vertical break, which, in English, means it has flattened out a bit. Díaz is also down some velocity as he’s not yet fully built up after surgery. That hasn’t helped.
And two, Díaz is locating his slider poorly. Look at that pitch Waldschmidt hit out the other day. That was a cement mixer that just spun in the middle of the zone. No bite, no nothing. About as bad a slider as Díaz has ever thrown. Here is his slider location heat map since returning from elbow surgery:
Baseball Savant
A small sample size, admittedly, but that’s too many hittable sliders middle-up and too many easy takes below the zone. At his best, Díaz dots the knees with his slider, and that down-and-away corner to righties. For the most part, he’s left the slider right down the middle of the zone. Díaz has never been a control master. He usually out-stuffs hitters, and he can’t do that right now.
The Dodgers are in no danger of missing the postseason. The question is whether they can get Díaz right before October, or if this is something that will take an offseason to address. Thanks to Statcast’s new arm angle data, we now know it’s not unusual for a pitcher to return from elbow surgery with a lower slot. It rarely corrects in-season, though. It often takes a winter to address it.
Díaz threw a 1-2-3 ninth inning with a one-run lead Monday, but was still wild in the zone, and he did give up a loud fly ball to center on a mistake 0-2 fastball to Isaac Collins. It was one of those “good results, bad process” outings. It’s clear Díaz still isn’t where the Dodgers need him. They have six weeks and change to get him right before the postseason.
Yordan Alvarez’s flirtation with history
Yordan Alvarez
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With Aaron Judge injured, Astros star Yordan Alvarez stands as baseball’s best hitter, and not by a small margin either. Going into Tuesday, Alvarez led baseball in batting average by five points, on-base percentage by 39 points, slugging percentage by 73 points, and OPS+ by 38 points. With his MLB-leading home run total and American League-leading RBI total, he has a real shot at the Triple Crown.
Alvarez leads baseball in another category as well: intentional walks. He’d been put on intentionally 23 times going into Tuesday’s games, well ahead of second-place Shohei Ohtani (16). Mike Trout and Junior Caminero are the only other players with even 10 intentional walks. Alvarez’s 23 intentional walks are already the most by a player other than Judge since Juan Soto had 23 in 2021.
Here are the last five players with 23 intentional walks in a season:
- Yordan Alvarez, 2026: 23 and counting
- Aaron Judge, 2025: 36
- Juan Soto, 2021: 23
- Mike Trout, 2018: 25
- Paul Goldschmidt, 2015: 29
Judge’s 36 intentional walks last year are the AL single-season record. Alvarez is on pace for 31, but as is often the case with these things, the pace has picked up in recent weeks. Alvarez has been intentionally walked 10 times in Houston’s last 23 games. He had 13 intentional walks in the team’s first 97 games. As the postseason races heat up, teams will pitch to him less and less.
The Astros are battling for the AL West title, and there’s a chance the division sends only one team to the postseason. It could be division title or bust for the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers. Houston has five games remaining with the Mariners (including three this coming weekend) but, weirdly, none with the Rangers. Their season series is complete. The Astros won it 9-4.
Furthermore, the Astros have series remaining with the Braves, Diamondbacks, White Sox, and Yankees. They’re all competing for something, be it a wild-card spot, division title, or Wild Card Series bye. Teams don’t like giving out free baserunners, but in this case, Alvarez is so dominant a hitter that they’re more open to it. He’s got a shot at 30 intentional walks, if not Judge’s AL record.
Arizona’s first base problem
Few teams are playing as well as the D-backs right now. Going into Tuesday, Arizona was 19-9 in its previous 28 games, putting the team in the second wild-card spot and in position to reach the postseason for only the second time since 2017. They’ve done that even with a small army of pitchers on the injured list, most notably Corbin Burnes and AJ Puk.
The D-backs are in wild-card position despite getting the absolute worst first base production in the sport. They’ve used 10 different players at first base, led by Ildemaro Vargas’ 62 games at the position. Since his 24-game hitting streak to open the season, Vargas has hit .219/.275/.293 in 80 games. That won’t cut it at first base, a position with a very high bar on offense.
Here are the numbers on Arizona’s first basemen:
| D-backs | MLB 1B average | |
|---|---|---|
|
Batting average |
.224 (29th in MLB) |
.255 |
|
On-base percentage |
.268 (30th) |
.338 |
|
Slugging percentage |
.342 (30th) |
.443 |
|
OPS+ |
56 (30th) |
100 |
|
WAR |
-1.3 (30th) |
+1.7 |
That 56 OPS+ means D-backs first basemen have been 44% worse than the league average first baseman, offensively. OPS+ is adjusted for ballpark and, more crucially, the league’s run-scoring environment, allowing us to compare across eras. If it holds, Arizona’s first base production will be the worst since the 2018 Orioles got a 53 OPS+ from their first basemen. Yeesh.
This was not a great deadline for bats, but I was surprised the D-backs didn’t bring in a new first baseman. The bar is on the floor. Even a league-average first baseman would have represented a pretty big upgrade. It could have given them an extra win or two the rest of the season, and that could decide the wild-card race. Instead, they’re riding it out with utility man Tim Tawa at first.
Arizona should keep an eye on the waiver wire this month. If the Guardians continue their fade, perhaps they’ll put Nathaniel Lowe or Rhys Hoskins on waivers for salary dump purposes. The Athletics could waive Jeff McNeil, who has an .878 OPS since the All-Star break and is playing first base for them. Does LaMonte Wade Jr. get squeezed off the Astros roster as they get healthy?
Again, the bar is very low at first base, and an extra win or two could decide the wild-card race. The D-backs can’t trade for MLB players now that we’re beyond the deadline, but maybe someone worthwhile hits the waiver wire. No doubt, though, their first base production has been sorely lacking all year. That they’re sitting in wild-card position anyway is impressive.
