The NBA Finals are here. The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will meet to decide this season’s winner in what has got to be one of the most exciting matchups we’ve had in years. We’re coming off a thrilling seven-game Finals series from last year between the Thunder and Pacers and, as tantalizing as that one was, this series has the possibility to top that.
It’s not just the matchups that provide intrigue. The pure spectacle of this matchup is unlike anything we’ve seen in some time. It’s the first time since 1999 that the Knicks have been in the NBA Finals. A fanbase that has been starved for success since the Y2K bug was talked about with genuine concern. The biggest media market in the country sending its local team to the NBA Finals has the potential to turn this from a matchup of the ages to a cultural moment.
Then there’s the Spurs, a franchise steeped in championship history and endless Hall of Fame legacy. In years past, seeing San Antonio in the NBA Finals would’ve garnered eye rolls as the team that consistently makes it this far and often wins the whole thing. But this isn’t your dad’s Spurs team. Gone is Greg Popovich patrolling the sidelines and a stable of reserved but dominant players who played a brand of basketball that many fans found boring. In their place, we’ve got a 7-foot-4 Frenchman who wears his emotions on his sleeve in Victor Wembanyama. A player so talented that the word “unique” loses all its meaning. The only word that feels fitting to describe Wemby’s otherworldly gifts is “alien,” which he and Nike’s marketing team are proud to sell on shirts and shoes.
The storylines for this matchup write themselves. How will the Knicks stop Wembanyama? Can Jalen Brunson prove yet again that a small guard can lead a team to a championship? How will Wembanyama perform on the grandest of stages in just his third year in the league? Will San Antonio’s supporting cast deliver? How about New York’s? These are all the things everyone will be focusing on as Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off on Wednesday, but let’s take a different approach here.
Everyone will be looking at all the major questions and storylines, but what about the guy on each side who may swing the series? This series has the potential to go seven games, so let’s take a look at which player from both sides will be an X-factor and capable of giving their team an edge in this matchup.
San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper
It feels unfair to suggest that a rookie could be the X-factor on an NBA Finals team, but with what Harper’s shown throughout the playoffs, you’d understand why.
The No. 2 overall pick has been a versatile threat for the Spurs in the postseason. Need him to be aggressive and look for his own shot? Perfect, Harper dropped 24 points in San Antonio’s Game 1 win in the Western Conference Finals. He also did that while starting for the first time in the playoffs with D’Aaron Fox nursing an ankle injury.
Harper can be the spark plug off the bench, can bring defensive aggression and provides so much upside as a rebounder. He’s recorded three games this postseason where he’s put up 10+ boards, and is averaging over five in the playoffs. On a team where Wembanyama vacuums up so many of those rebounds, it’s impressive that Harper can still make an impact in that category.
Dylan Harper
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Harper doesn’t fall victim to many of the typical rookie tropes, like forcing things or low efficiency. Instead, his true shooting percentage of 57.9% ranks first amongst guards in the playoffs. He also ranks first amongst guards on non-corner 3s in the postseason, going 14 for 31.
The Knicks are going to throw extra bodies at Wembanyama, and Stephon Castle will certainly get a heavy dose of Josh Hart trying to slow him down. So there will be opportunity for Harper to show his offensive brilliance and take advantage of mismatches or a defensive unit that might lose focus as they try to contain Wemby.
I’m not expecting Harper to average 20 points a game over the series, but there will be a point where he’ll need to make winning plays for the Spurs in key moments and he’s more than capable of that. If he can stack up enough of those winning plays, whether that’s having a scoring outburst in one game, being the connector on offense to get others going or providing defensive relief, then he can sway a game or two for the Spurs.
New York Knicks: Mikal Bridges
Everyone knows that the way the Knicks can beat the Spurs is by punishing them from 3-point land. With Wembanyama patrolling the paint, it’s unlikely that the Knicks will maintain that playoff-leading 68.1% mark in the restricted area. Just look at what his presence did to the Thunder. Entering the Western Conference Finals, OKC was shooting 75.6% in the restricted area, which deflated to 54.4% against Wemby and the Spurs.
If that happens against New York, they’ll have to rely on their 3-point shooting. That’s where Bridges comes into play. The wing has been efficient inside the arc, shooting 69.3% on 2-pointers in the playoffs, but his 3-point shot has been a different story.
Since the second round of the playoffs, Bridges is shooting just 33% from beyond the arc. He went just 4 for 14 on 3s in the Eastern Conference Finals, which got overlooked because of how dominant the Knicks were against the Cavaliers. Bridges was also making practically everything else, so it didn’t matter much.
Mikal Bridges
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But the Spurs present a far different battle than the Cavaliers, 76ers or Hawks did. Wembanyama deters shots at the rim, and as a team, the Spurs allow just 39.3% on mid-range shots. So Bridges, who has seen 70% of his shot profile in the playoffs from shots at the rim or in the mid-range, will have to adjust to what San Antonio is giving him.
He’s a career 37.1% 3-point shooter in the regular season, but this postseason run, he’s only made more than two 3s in a single game once. That will need to change, because if Bridges catches fire from deep, it can open up opportunities to get to his spot in the mid-range or at the rim. But the Spurs won’t just give up those opportunities from the start; Bridges will have to force them into making decisions.
If Bridges can be a consistent threat from deep, it won’t just get him going, but will open things up for the Knicks and force the Spurs on their heels defensively.
