Monday tips off the final week of the NBA season, and as far as the playoff picture is concerned, the only team that knows for certain where it will land is the Detroit Pistons, who’ve clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Detroit visits the Orlando Magic Monday night (7 p.m. ET). Orlando is ninth in the East, but still within striking distance of the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers, who are tied for sixth. However, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Magic a 2% chance of securing the 6-seed and the guaranteed playoff spot that comes with it, meaning Orlando will likely have to survive the play-in tournament to make a third consecutive playoff appearance.

Philadelphia faces its own tall task Monday night, taking on Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs (8 p.m. ET), who are coming off an overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. After the loss, the Spurs’ odds of catching the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top seed in the West fell below 2%. Denver, which is tied with the ailing Los Angeles Lakers for third in the West, hosts the play-in bound Portland Trail Blazers (9 p.m. ET). BPI gives Denver a 38% chance of surpassing LeBron James & Co.

The New York Knicks have fallen three games behind the Boston Celtics for the 2-seed in the East, and visit the Atlanta Hawks (7 p.m. ET, Peacock), who’ve won 18 of their past 20 games to move up to fifth. New York’s lead over the fourth-place Cleveland Cavaliers has shrunk to one game, with Cleveland heading on the road to face the tanking Memphis Grizzlies Monday night (8 p.m. ET).

Here’s a look at the current and projected NBA playoff picture, the most important games left in the regular season and how the race for the No. 1 pick in June’s draft is shaping up:

Jump to a section:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule | Friday’s scores
<!– Clinching scenarios | –>Critical remaining games
Projected standings | Race for No. 1 pick

Current NBA playoff matchups

Eastern Conference playoffs

1. Detroit Pistons vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. New York Knicks vs. 6. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

Eastern Conference play-in

7. Toronto Raptors vs. 8. Charlotte Hornets
9. Orlando Magic vs. 10. Miami Heat
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10

Western Conference playoffs

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. San Antonio Spurs vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Denver Nuggets vs. 5. Houston Rockets

Western Conference play-in

7. Phoenix Suns vs. 8. LA Clippers
9. Portland Trail Blazers vs. 10. Golden State Warriors
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10


NBA Playoff Challenge

Pick the winners and crown your NBA champion! Create A Bracket

Monday’s games

Knicks at Hawks, 7 p.m. ET (Peacock)
Pistons at Magic, 7 p.m. ET
Cavaliers at Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
76ers at Spurs, 8 p.m. ET
Trail Blazers at Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET


Sunday’s scores

Celtics 115, Raptors 101
Nets 121, Wizards 115
Suns 120, Bulls 110
Bucks 131, Grizzlies 115
Cavaliers 117, Pacers 108
Hornets 122, Timberwolves 108
Magic 112, Pelicans 108
Thunder 146, Jazz 111
Mavericks 134, Lakers 128
Clippers 138, Kings 109
Rockets 117, Warriors 116


Most important games left

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Clinching scenarios

The Minnesota Timberwolves clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss by the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns are locked into the play-in tournament with a loss and a win by the Timberwolves.

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Projected end-of-season standings

Projected Eastern Conference StandingsSeedTeamProjected Final Record1Detroit Pistons 60-22 2 Boston Celtics 56-26 3 New York Knicks 52-30 4 Cleveland Cavaliers 52-30 5 Atlanta Hawks 47-35 6 Toronto Raptors 45-37 7 Philadelphia 76ers 45-37 8 Charlotte Hornets 45-37 9 Orlando Magic 44-38 10 Miami Heat 43-39 11 Milwaukee Bucks 33-49 12 Chicago Bulls 31-51 13 Brooklyn Nets 20-62 14 Indiana Pacers 19-63 15 Washington Wizards 18-64 Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index

Projected Western Conference StandingsSeedTeamProjected Final Record1Oklahoma City Thunder 65-17 2 San Antonio Spurs 62-20 3 Denver Nuggets 52-30 4 Los Angeles Lakers 52-30 5 Houston Rockets 52-30 6 Minnesota Timberwolves 49-33 7 Phoenix Suns 45-37 8 LA Clippers 42-40 9 Portland Trail Blazers 42-40 10 Golden State Warriors 39-43 11 New Orleans Pelicans 26-56 12 Dallas Mavericks 26-56 13 Memphis Grizzlies 26-56 14 Utah Jazz 22-60 15 Sacramento Kings 22-60 Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index


Race for the No. 1 pick

The NBA uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first four picks. All 14 teams that fail to make the playoffs are eligible to move up to the top four. After the order of the top four picks is set via the draw, the remainder of the first round is set in inverse order of the teams’ regular-season records. The three teams with the worst records each have an equal 14% chance of winning the lottery, with the odds for the non-playoff teams decreasing from there.

Among the projected lottery teams, there are multiple trades that could impact picks. The Atlanta Hawks will get the better of the picks from the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks, with the lesser of the two picks going to Milwaukee. If the Indiana Pacers’ pick falls between five and nine, it will go to the LA Clippers. The Clippers’ own pick will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Orlando Magic will send their pick to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Utah Jazz will send their pick to the Thunder if it falls outside the top eight. The Portland Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Chicago Bulls if it falls outside the lottery (if they make the playoffs through the play-in tournament). The Washington Wizards’ pick is top-eight protected, and the probability of their selection ending up ninth or worse is extremely low.

Projected 2026 Lottery OrderNo.TeamCurrent RecordChance ForNo. 1 Pick1Washington Wizards 17-61 14% 2 Indiana Pacers 18-60 14% 3 Brooklyn Nets 19-59 14% 4 Utah Jazz 21-58 11.5% 5 Sacramento Kings 21-58 11.5% 6 New Orleans Pelicans* 25-54 9% 7 Memphis Grizzlies 25-53 7.5% 8 Dallas Mavericks 25-53 6% 9 Chicago Bulls 29-49 4.5% 10 Milwaukee Bucks 31-47 3% 11 Golden State Warriors 36-42 2% 12 Portland Trail Blazers 40-38 1.5% 13 Miami Heat 41-37 1% 14 Orlando Magic* 42-36 0.5% *The Pelicans’ pick would convey to the Atlanta Hawks.
The Magic’s pick would convey to the Grizzlies.

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