The postseason picture is starting to become clearer, but there are still plenty of places to be decided in both conferences. Two teams looking to improve their seeding will meet Friday night in Philadelphia, when the Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Philadelphia 76ers. After sliding due to a series of injuries, the Sixers have moved back into the top six in the East, though tied with the seventh-place Toronto Raptors. Toronto is taking on the tanking Memphis Grizzlies on Friday, so Philadelphia will likely need a win to keep pace.

The Timberwolves, on the other hand, have slid to sixth in the West after spending most of March in fifth. They’re a game behind the fifth-place Houston Rockets, who’ll face the tanking Utah Jazz on Friday. Minnesota has the 13th-most difficult remaining schedule according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which is part of the reason BPI gives the Wolves a 73% chance of ending up in sixth.

All that helps explain why Timberwolves-Sixers ranks as BPI’s sixth-most critical game of the rest of the season.

Here’s a look at the current and projected NBA playoff picture, the most important games left in the regular season and how the race for the No. 1 pick in June’s draft is shaping up:

Jump to a section:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule | Friday’s scores
<!– Clinching scenarios | –>Critical remaining games
Projected standings | Race for No. 1 pick

Current NBA playoff matchups

Eastern Conference playoffs

1. Detroit Pistons vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. New York Knicks vs. 6. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

Eastern Conference play-in

7. Toronto Raptors vs. 8. Charlotte Hornets
9. Orlando Magic vs. 10. Miami Heat
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10

Western Conference playoffs

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. San Antonio Spurs vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Denver Nuggets vs. 5. Houston Rockets

Western Conference play-in

7. Phoenix Suns vs. 8. Portland Trail Blazers
9. LA Clippers vs. 10. Golden State Warriors
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10


NBA Playoff Challenge

Pick the winners and crown your NBA champion! Create A Bracket

Friday’s games

Pacers at Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
Timberwolves at 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
Hawks at Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
Bulls at Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Jazz at Rockets, 8 p.m. ET
Raptors at Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
Celtics at Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Magic at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pelicans at Kings, 10 p.m. ET


Thursday’s scores

Hornets 127, Suns 107
Pistons 113, Timberwolves 108
Thunder 139, Lakers 96
Cavaliers 118, Warriors 111
Trail Blazers 118, Pelicans 106
Spurs 118, Clippers 99


Most important games left

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Clinching scenarios

The Cleveland Cavaliers clinch a playoff spot with a win.

The Houston Rockets clinch a playoff spot with a loss by the Phoenix Suns.

–>


Projected end-of-season standings

Projected Eastern Conference StandingsSeedTeamProjected Final Record1Detroit Pistons 60-22 2 Boston Celtics 55-27 3 New York Knicks 52-30 4 Cleveland Cavaliers 52-30 5 Atlanta Hawks 47-35 6 Toronto Raptors 45-37 7 Philadelphia 76ers 45-37 8 Charlotte Hornets 44-38 9 Miami Heat 43-39 10 Orlando Magic 43-39 11 Milwaukee Bucks 32-50 12 Chicago Bulls 32-50 13 Brooklyn Nets 20-62 14 Indiana Pacers 20-62 15 Washington Wizards 18-64 Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index

Projected Western Conference StandingsSeedTeamProjected Final Record1Oklahoma City Thunder 65-17 2 San Antonio Spurs 63-19 3 Los Angeles Lakers 53-29 4 Denver Nuggets 52-30 5 Houston Rockets 51-31 6 Minnesota Timberwolves 50-32 7 Phoenix Suns 45-37 8 LA Clippers 42-40 9 Portland Trail Blazers 42-40 10 Golden State Warriors 39-43 11 New Orleans Pelicans 27-55 12 Memphis Grizzlies 27-55 13 Dallas Mavericks 26-56 14 Utah Jazz 22-60 15 Sacramento Kings 21-61 Projections via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index


Race for the No. 1 pick

The NBA uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first four picks. All 14 teams that fail to make the playoffs are eligible to move up to the top four. After the order of the top four picks is set via the draw, the remainder of the first round is set in inverse order of the teams’ regular-season records. The three teams with the worst records each have an equal 14% chance of winning the lottery, with the odds for the non-playoff teams decreasing from there.

Among the projected lottery teams, there are multiple trades that could impact picks. The Atlanta Hawks will get the better of the picks from the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks, with the lesser of the two picks going to Milwaukee. If the Indiana Pacers’ pick falls between five and nine, it will go to the LA Clippers. The Clippers’ own pick will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Orlando Magic will send their pick to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Utah Jazz will send their pick to the Thunder if it falls outside the top eight. The Portland Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Chicago Bulls if it falls outside the lottery (if they make the playoffs through the play-in tournament). The Washington Wizards’ pick is top-eight protected, and the probability of their selection ending up ninth or worse is extremely low.

Projected 2026 Lottery OrderNo.TeamCurrent RecordChance ForNo. 1 Pick1Washington Wizards 17-59 14% 2 Brooklyn Nets 18-58 14% 3 Indiana Pacers 18-58 14% 4 Sacramento Kings 20-57 12.5% 5 Utah Jazz 21-56 10.5% 6 Dallas Mavericks 24-52 9% 7 New Orleans Pelicans* 25-52 7.5% 8 Memphis Grizzlies 25-51 6% 9 Chicago Bulls 29-47 4.5% 10 Milwaukee Bucks 30-46 3% 11 Golden State Warriors 36-41 2% 12 LA Clippers* 39-38 1.5% 13 Miami Heat 40-37 1% 14 Orlando Magic* 40-36 0.5% *The Pelicans’ pick would convey to the Atlanta Hawks.
The Clippers’ pick would convey to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Magic’s pick would convey to the Grizzlies.

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