NFL sophomore QB outlook: Biggest 2026 questions for Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough

The trials and tribulations of an NFL quarterback are unceasing. When put upon a rookie, often playing in difficult circumstances, they can seem downright unfair. And perhaps they are. But that’s life at the game’s most important position.

The 2025 rookie class was a mixed bag, both as a whole and individually. Cam Ward started from Day 1 for the Titans, and Jaxson Dart received in-game reps for the Giants by Week 2 and became the starter by Week 4. Tyler Shough took over for the Saints in Week 9. From there on out, except for Ward’s shoulder injury in Week 18 and Dart’s two-game absence for a concussion, those three took the reins the rest of the year and established themselves as the clear top option heading into 2026.

Just like their teams, though, there were plenty of ups and downs. Both Ward and Dart saw their coaches fired midway through 2025. Among 33 qualified passers last year, Ward finished 32nd in expected points added per play, and Shough was 29th. Dart finished 12th in the metric, but when excluding scrambles and rushes, he fell to 22nd.

Truly assessing these three players, though, requires much more than an all-encompassing stat. All three played in far-from-ideal environments, whether due to coaching staff changes, on-field support, or a mix of both.

All three showed exciting ability and encouraging signs — the plays that showed their teams they can lead what’s ahead in the building process.

Ward, Dart and Shough fit the stereotypical young, highly drafted quarterback mold: real talent, real holes in their game and real questions going forward. Filling (or at least overcoming) those holes and answering those questions while maintaining and developing their strengths is crucial.

Cam Ward

The numbers

Cam Ward – 2025		NFL Rank (out of 33)
Net yards per attempt	5.1	33rd
Passing success rate	37.8%	33rd
Expected points added per play	-0.17	32nd
TD-Int	15-7	21st

The outlook

Ward, playing in an awful situation (more in a bit), showed some real progress down the stretch, with notable improvements in touchdown-to-interception ratio (6-6 through 11 weeks, 9-1 from Week 12 onward) and negative play mitigation. He did a much better job avoiding sacks when pressured from Week 12 through the end of the season, a crucial step given his play style.

That play style, by the way, can be loads of fun. Ward has the arm talent and creativity as a thrower to produce some true jaw-dropping throws.

Ward’s rookie season wasn’t all that dissimilar from that of the No. 1 pick before him, Caleb Williams, and they have similar play styles, too. Both Williams and Ward did a good job of taking care of the ball as rookies despite rough surroundings. Both had similar struggles, such as playing on time, accuracy and negative plays. Williams was a significantly better prospect, but Ward could follow a similar path, even if it’s a step or two below Williams.’

Williams benefited greatly from improved surroundings in his second year. The Titans hope to provide the same. They hired Robert Saleh as coach, and he appointed Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator. They used the No. 4 overall pick on Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate, and Daboll brought over several of his former Giants players, including center Austin Schlottmann and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. The Titans have an on-the-rise standout in guard Peter Skoronski, and they are hoping for much-improved play from their tackles: Left tackle Dan Moore Jr. got a huge contract last offseason but didn’t live up to it in his first year in the Music City, and right tackle JC Latham is yet to play to his first-round billing.

Tate brings much-needed reliability. He’s viewed as a high-floor guy whose route-running and strong hands are pluses. The Titans didn’t have a single player in the top 80 of ESPN’s receiver scores, and there were far, far too many drops, miscommunications and simple receiver errors. Robinson should also provide reliability in the short game, an area in which Ward must improve but also an area in which he didn’t have much help last year.

The environment should be better. It’d be hard for it to be worse. But Ward’s (and Tennessee’s) success will hinge on Ward’s ability to take far fewer negative plays. Williams had a 12.4% negative play rate as a rookie, similar to Ward’s 11.9%. But Williams nearly halved that number to 6.3% in his second year.

A big reason for that? Williams took a sack on 28% of his pressured dropbacks as a rookie, similar to Ward (24%). But Williams dropped that rate to 11% in 2025, among the lowest in the NFL. Ward reported he’s lost weight this offseason to be faster, and while he won’t ever be Williams as a scrambler, even a modest improvement in agility and pressure avoidance would be huge for him. Sacks are one of the biggest indicators of whether a possession ends in points or not.

Ward likely won’t experience a massive jump as Williams did. The Bears put one of the best offensive lines, one of the best offensive minds, several high-level weapons and a terrific run game around Williams in 2025. The Titans aren’t there yet in any of those categories. But there should be improvement across the board, and if Ward follows, it will be a solid step forward.

Jaxson Dart

The numbers

Jaxson Dart – 2025		NFL Rank (out of 33)
Net yards per attempt	6.3	25th
Passing success rate	41.7%	30th
Expected points added per play	0.06	12th
TD-Int	15-5	T-9th

The outlook

Dart was a high-wire act, chasing big plays with his legs, especially, but his arm as well. He logged the fourth-highest scramble rate and the ninth-highest deep throw rate in the NFL. Those tendencies led to a wide range of outcomes. Among 29 players with at least 300 dropbacks, Dart ranked …

• Fifth in big-time throw rate
• Eighth in turnover-worthy play rate

And, of course, his heavy reliance on scrambling led to some big collisions, one concussion (missed two games) and visits to the medical tent seemingly every other game.

Dart was excellent as a runner in 2025. His 65% rushing success rate was second among all quarterbacks, and he scored an astounding nine rushing touchdowns in just 12 starts. He found success as a designed runner and as a scrambler; his 0.76 expected points added per scramble ranked third.

Dart’s passing was hit-or-miss. He didn’t have Malik Nabers for essentially the entire season, Cam Skattebo also got hurt, and the Giants ranked 24th in non-quarterback rushing success rate. Was it better than Ward’s situation? Yes. But it still wasn’t great. While reports on Nabers’ health aren’t exactly glowing, he’s still expected back early in the season at worst, and the Giants added tight end Isaiah Likely in free agency and offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa to an already solid offensive line with the No. 10 pick.

Dart needs to make life easier on himself as a more anticipatory thrower who isn’t constantly looking to extend. According to Pro Football Focus, Dart was at least somewhat responsible for the pressure 39.1% of his pressured dropbacks, by far the highest rate on record. For reference, the second-highest rate last year belonged to Shedeur Sanders at 29.1%.

Dart has enough wiggle and athleticism to avoid sacks, but he put himself in too many bad situations from which even he couldn’t escape. His 23% sack to pressure rate was sixth-worst in the NFL, and his overall sack rate was fifth-worst.

Dart has to get the ball out quicker or, at the very least, throw the ball away. Dart’s average time to throw was among the league’s slowest, with Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson and Williams — all three physical freaks with laser arms — taking longer. Furthermore, Dart’s 11 throwaways were tied with Jackson for the fewest among quarterbacks who started double-digit games. He needs to learn to cut his losses, as many young quarterbacks do.

To be clear, there were examples of Dart doing good things under pressure. It’s just that the pure number of pressures he faced (and often created himself) was far too high, and the results were often too damaging. That’s how Dart sank to 30th in success rate on passing plays.

Dart’s next steps toward success include better situational and pocket awareness and a greater willingness to take the gains that are there, rather than placing such a large focus on big plays or out-of-structure plays. That’s the biggest reason he finished 26th out of 29 players (min. 300 dropbacks) in PFF’s passing grades.

Give Dart credit for finding ways to succeed as a rookie. The receiving corps was underwhelming after Nabers’ injury. Dart ended up in the starting lineup likely earlier than the Giants had hoped. He was drinking from a firehose. Dart needs to play more on time and anticipate better. Those are both skills that can develop with time, and Dart, with his first full NFL offseason, has the chance to do just that.

Tyler Shough

The numbers

Tyler Shough – 2025		NFL Rank (out of 33)
Net yards per attempt	6.7	17th
Passing success rate	45.5%	17th
Expected points added per play	-0.12	29th
TD-Int	10-6	28th

The outlook

The numbers above aren’t great by any stretch, but Shough, from after taking over as a starter in Week 9, was fourth in completion percentage, 12th in net yards per attempt, and seventh in completions of 10+ yards. From Week 14 on, when the Saints went 4-1, he was even better.

It may sound like a broken record, given what’s been written about the previous quarterbacks in this article, but even at his best in his rookie year, Shough struggled with accuracy and negative play mitigation. Only Geno Smith had a worse pressure-to-sack rate. Shough finished 26th in sack rate despite facing pressure at the seventh-lowest rate in the league. So, again, pressure mitigation is huge for the 2025 second-rounder.

Shough was generally not very aggressive, but he generated plenty of intrigue when he did push the ball downfield. Over the final five weeks, he had 16 completions on throws 15+ air yards downfield (seventh-most), and he flashed both arm strength and good touch on vertical passes outside the numbers.

Reducing the number of negative plays is a clear and obvious next step. So, too, is locking in the accuracy, especially under pressure. Shough’s 24.4% off-target rate when pressured was the worst in the league, and only one other player (Williams) was over 20%. Shough isn’t a statue in the pocket, but he’s not an elusive creator with his legs, either.

The Saints are hoping that an already-impressive offensive line with some good young talent gets even better with the addition of veteran guard David Andrews. The Saints also signed Travis Etienne, who should add pop to a running game that had almost none in 2025. And No. 8 pick Jordyn Tyson is a high-level athlete who can contribute in the quick game and downfield.

Shough showed some good things as a rookie and now gets a well-deserved chance to show he’s the guy long-term. A year ago, that would have been considered a 90th-percentile outcome for a No. 40 overall pick who had suffered several injuries in college. Shough will turn 27 in September, so the high-level ceiling may not be there. Avoiding negative plays and, in turn, raising his own floor will be critical.