We have four MLB matinee games to chose from Thursday, and I believe the best value is on the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners closing their series from T-Mobile Park in the Pacific Northwest with a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch. M’s right-hander Bryan Woo sure prefers pitching there and goes today. It might be the last time for a while the M’s have a “normal” starting pitcher.
Orioles vs. Mariners same-game parlay
- No Runs First Inning
- Alt Under 9.5
DraftKings SGP price: +114
I’d rate these teams about the same, although Seattle is leading the AL West. If Baltimore played in that weak division instead of the tough AL East, however, the Orioles would only be three games back of Seattle instead of the 11.5 they are out of first in the East.
So, it’s obviously wild card or bust for them. The SportsLine Projection Model gives Baltimore an updated season win total of 75.7 and a 15.0% shot at the postseason. DraftKings lists the team at +220 to get there, which equates to a 31.3% chance.
Since sitting eight games below .500 on May 20, the Orioles were playing much better but had lost three straight games before a 5-3 victory Wednesday. One bright spot this week was the activation Tuesday of closer Ryan Helsley from the injured list, where he had been since May 1 due to right elbow inflammation.
Helsley and slugger Pete Alonso were two big-ticket free-agent additions in the offseason, and Helsley — who signed a two-year, $28 million deal — had been 7-for-7 in save chances with a 2.53 ERA in 12 appearances before going down. A rusty Helsley tried his best to blow Wednesday’s win by allowing dingers to Dominic Canzone and Cole Young on his first two pitches in the ninth before closing it out.
Helsley’s return should be a huge help for the bullpen, but the rotation is likely still not good enough to earn a wild-card spot. Another of Baltimore’s big offseason moves was trading a significant prospect package to Tampa Bay for right-hander Shane Baz (4-6, 4.06 ERA). You should never trade with the Rays, because they always seem to win them in lopsided fashion.
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And it appeared early on they had won this one regarding Baz, who has been worth minus-$474 this season if you wagered on Baltimore to win each of his 12 outings. But the 27-year-old perhaps has figured things out, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts with a 2.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP spanning 30.2 innings.
Baz mentioned he has simplified his approach and is focusing on the first pitch of an at-bat to get ahead in the count immediately but not so much chasing strikeouts. His velocity has dropped since April, but his command and control have improved.
“Any time that I stay super focused, not think about external stuff and just take it one pitch at a time and not let whatever’s happened during the game, good or bad, affect me in the way I’m thinking and attacking, I pitch way better,” Baz mentioned. “Whenever I’m trying to throw strike one, the first pitch of the at-bat, and then try to end every at-bat in three pitches or less, is when I get those quick outs. And I can go into the seventh, eighth inning.”
No Mariner has more than three career at-bats off him or have gone yard.
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I do believe Seattle will win the AL West, because it has the best pitching in the division and is the -180 favorite. Whether the Mariners have the lineup to make any real noise is the big question. Both infielder JP Crawford and All-Star catcher Cal Raleigh were activated off the injured list Tuesday, so that’s nice, but Randy Arozarena landed on it to join Brendan Donovan there. And then on Wednesday, star outfielder Julio Rodriguez was pulled with a tight hamstring.
Could Woo factor into the AL Cy Young race? He is a sixth-favorite but down at +2200. At 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP overall this season, well, the 26-year-old isn’t a contender. But at home, he’s 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA and .159 opponent batting average in six starts. While Woo has lost his past two outings overall and allowed 12 runs and 16 hits over 11.1 innings, those were in Baltimore and Detroit. But he hasn’t allowed a run in Seattle since May 1 vs. Kansas City.
“I’m getting pretty tired of trying to come up with reasons or excuses or superlatives,” Woo mentioned after his loss last Thursday in Baltimore. “I don’t have the answers. I’m looking for them.”
Over his past three at T-Mobile Park, Woo has gone 19 innings with zero earned and 36 strikeouts to just six hits allowed. And all against possible playoff teams in the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Braves. Woo has become one of three pitchers in MLB since the start of last season to have at least a three-game streak of six-plus scoreless innings at home. He’s only the sixth Mariners pitchers to do it in history and first since Hisashi Iwakuma in 2016.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Woo for 5.7 innings today with 6.0 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs – so not very optimistic. DraftKings has him at +140 to win and Over/Under 18.5 outs recorded. Ideally, Woo pitches around Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman as he’s 4-for-6 with a double, homer and five RBI off him. But no other Baltimore hitters have good splits.
This might be the last time you can smartly wager on any Seattle starting pitching props, because on Friday, the team is going to a full piggyback system among all six starters the rest of the first half to keep everyone involved and manage workload. Interesting concept.
“Each of the six guys will either appear as the front end or the back end one time in the next 30 days,” Mariners general manager Justin Hollander mentioned to reporters this week. “Each guy will be a participant for one day, so roughly everyone will sacrifice an inning or two innings over the next 30 days.”
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My original plan was Mariners money line, but then Rodriguez left last night so I changed to both involving totals. It’s shaping up as a nice pitchers’ duel. The model has Seattle 4.8-4.1. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
