The calendar will turn to May on Friday, giving us our first full month of the 2026 regular season in Major League Baseball. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers will sit atop the NL West at 20-11, but it’s only a half-game lead over the Padres at 19-11.
The two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers are the easy and obvious pick to win the division again, but do the Padres have staying power here? Can they keep pushing the Dodgers and contend for the division title?
The Padres haven’t won the NL West since 2006 and the odds say it’s an uphill battle. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen. So what do they need to do to keep this a race with the mighty Dodgers and what could they change?
Offense
The Padres are hitting .235/.309/.384 as a team. That’s not going to cut it. Yes, they play in a pitcher-friendly park, but the adjusted OPS+ for the team is 92, or eight points below league average. Credit needs to be given to Xander Bogaerts for a good start to the season, and they’ve also gotten fine work from Ramón Laureano, Miguel Andujar and Ty France.
Some of the guys being counted on to be the big guns of the offense just aren’t getting it done. If the Padres wish to push the Dodgers this season, we’d need to see a lot more from these guys:
- Manny Machado is hitting .222/.331/.384 (99 OPS+). It might seem like Machado is old since he’s been around for such a long time, but he’s still just 33 and should have a few years left before Father Time really chokes the life out of his bat. He hit .275 with a 118 OPS+ and 27 homers last season, for example. You’d expect some uptick, even if not a massive one.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has the most plate appearances this season among hitters with zero home runs, narrowly beating out players like Chandler Simpson and Luis Arraez. Tatis isn’t like those guys. Power is one of his calling cards. He hit 21 homers in just 102 games in 2024 and 25 last season. His career slugging percentage before this season was .513. This season, he’s slugging .286. His average and OBP wouldn’t even be a problem if he were hitting for power, but this complete void of power from Tatis needs to change for the Padres to have a shot at the Dodgers. His exit velocity, bat speed, hard-hit % readings and more underlying data don’t point to major changes. He’s just not hitting as many fly balls. His fly ball% is usually above 25% and this season it’s 18.8%. My expectation here is that this is small-sample fluky stuff and he starts hitting home runs soon enough.
- Jackson Merrill was second in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2024 with 31 doubles, six triples, 24 homers, 90 RBI, 77 runs and 16 steals while hitting .292/.326/.500. He took a step backward last season in his 115 games around injuries, hitting .264/.317/.457, but that’s still a 112 OPS+. This season, he’s hitting .200 with a 66 OPS+.
- Jake Cronenworth has been atrocious. One of the worst hitters in baseball, actually, at .146/.276/.202 (36 OPS+). He hit .246 with a 108 OPS+ last season. He’s no longer a player who could make an All-Star team, but he should be much better than he has been in 2026.
If that foursome starts hitting in line with career norms, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that’ll be the case, the Padres take steps forward.
Defense
By defensive efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play converted into outs), the Padres rank 22nd in baseball, a decent mark below league average to this point. Last year, they were third with similar personnel. Even if the unit as a whole takes a step backward, I’d expect larger samples of play end up showing the Padres as a good defensive team due to the presence of players like Tatis and Machado, though there are concerns with Bogaerts’ range at shortstop.
Rotation
The Padres rank 17th in rotation ERA and also 17th in WAR (FanGraphs version). It’s actually impressive that it isn’t worse, given how it looks on paper with Nick Pivetta sidelined and Joe Musgrove’s setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Michael King has been great and the expectation here is he’ll continue to be. Randy Vásquez has a 2.94 ERA this season in six starts, though he’s been touched up in two of his last three and had a career 4.08 ERA before this season.
Still, there’s enough here to believe the Padres have two good starters. Germán Márquez hasn’t been awful, but he shouldn’t be trusted long-term. Walker Buehler and Matt Waldron have been bad.
Can the Padres really replace three starters? They’re going to try. They’ve got the three names.
- Lucas Giolito was recently signed as a free agent and is working on building himself up in the minors. He had a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts for the Red Sox last season.
- Pivetta has a flexor strain in his pitching elbow. Uh oh. He was shut down in the middle of April and the Padres reported he would miss “weeks or even months.” If he’s able to return and stay healthy, he’s a big help. He was great last season, finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting.
- Musgrove still doesn’t seem to be making progress after his spring setback. When he’s on the mound, he’s good. It’s just a question of whether he gets back there anytime soon.
If the Padres end up with a rotation of King, Vásquez, Giolito, Pivetta and Musgrove before the end of the season, that’s a group that could do quality things. There are major questions hovering over at least Pivetta and Musgrove, though, if not also Vásquez and Giolito.
Bullpen
Padres relievers sit 18th in ERA, but third in WAR. The upside is the key here because the Padres have some stellar late-inning arms that can shorten the game. Mason Miller is arguably the best reliever in baseball and is likely to remain that throughout the season. Jason Adam is a very capable setup man who could also close on many teams. Adrián Morejón has nasty stuff and was an All-Star last season. His ERA is ugly right now, but I’m not worried about it. Throw in crafty lefty Wandy Peralta and young righty Bradgley Rodriguez and the Padres have an excellent stable here.
There’s every reason to believe it’ll be one of the best bullpens in baseball moving forward.
Verdict
The projection systems still love the Dodgers. SportsLine has the Dodgers winning 99.8 games and the Padres 88.0. PECOTA has the Dodgers at 101.1 and the Padres at 83.2. FanGraphs projects the Dodgers with 97 wins compared to 84 for the Padres.
The Padres would need an awful lot to go right with their rotation, meaning the best possible outcomes from the health of Pivetta and Musgrove while Giolito returns to All-Star form and Vásquez holds things together. Offensively, Tatis, Merrill, Machado and Cronenworth would need to return to at least mostly their best versions of themselves.
And it still might not even be good enough.
The Padres look like a playoff team, but I’m not buying their chances to keep up with the Dodgers, even though I love that bullpen and there are obvious areas where the offense can improve.
