One of my favorite starting pitchers this generation is future Hall of Fame right-hander Max Scherzer. It has been hard to watch the 41-year-old three-time Cy Young Award winner struggle so badly this season for the Blue Jays as he returns to the mound from an injured list stint for Wednesday’s series finale against the Phillies in Toronto with a first pitch of 7:07 p.m. ET in the rubber match.
It’s not out of the question that this is the last time Scherzer is on a big-league mound as a starter if it doesn’t go well, so I’m here to pay my respects to the all-time great … and win some money.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay
- Alt Under 10.5
- Phillies win race to 3 total runs
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If we are being honest, Scherzer hasn’t been excellent in the majors since 2022, and not remotely good since 2024, in limited action with Texas. Injuries have limited Scherzer to 26 total starts the past two seasons, and in five this year he’s a brutal 1-3 with a 9.46 ERA that would easily be the majors’ worst if Scherzer had enough innings to qualify.
One of the great strikeout pitchers ever, who ranks 11th all-time in Ks with 3,499, has only 10 in 18.2 innings this season, compared to 22 hits allowed and eight walks. Batters are hitting a whopping .500 with a 1.786 OPS with runners in scoring position.
We last saw Scherzer on April 24, when he was shredded for seven runs and three homers and no strikeouts in just 2.1 innings of a loss to Cleveland. Toronto is 1-4 in his five starts, and bettors would be down $364 if they wagered $100 on all of those for the Jays to have won.
Scherzer’s fastball averaged only 92.8 mph in that Guardians loss, and he was placed on the injured list a few days later with right forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation. The forearm has been what had kept him on the IL since.
Scherzer has made two rehab starts, with his final one coming last Friday for Triple-A Buffalo. He threw 3.2 innings on 73 pitches, allowing three runs on five hits with a walk and five strikeouts. Scherzer’s fastball averaged 93.4 mph and touched 95.7 mph, very encouraging numbers.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Scherzer at 4.3 innings tonight, with 3.7 strikeouts, 4.3 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs. Obviously, he needs one strikeout for historic No. 3,500 and needs 10 to tie Walter Johnson for 10th-most in history, but clearly that will have to wait until at least Scherzer’s next start, if there is one. Scherzer’s next win would be No. 223 career, which would move him from a tie for 78th all-time to 74th. He’s +368 to earn the win at DraftKings as the righty might not even go the full five, set with an Over/Under outs total of 14.5.
The Blue Jays don’t need Scherzer to be an ace but to simply chew up some innings at the back end of a rotation that is suddenly getting healthy. Dylan Cease returned from the IL on Tuesday and was great, while former AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber is set for his season debut this weekend.
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Toronto’s only three healthy guys all season in the rotation have been Kevin Gausman, late signing Patrick Corbin and rookie Trey Yesavage, who is on an innings limit. Because the rotation has been a bit of an issue at times, the bullpen has been overworked. The Blue Jays have five relievers who have thrown in at least 30 games, and they will get worn out.
No doubt this is part of the reason the defending AL champions are two games below .500, but they got one of their better wins of the season Tuesday by rallying for two runs in the bottom of the ninth off stellar Phillies closer Jhoan Duran in the 3-2 victory. Duran had been 16-for-16 in save opportunities this year.
The Philles start lefty Jesus Luzardo (4-4, 4.55 ERA, minus-$79). The 28-year-old tends to have one wild/bad outing and then dominates a while before rinsing and repeating, seemingly for his entire career. It’s been more of the same in 2026. For example, Luzardo’s 26.7% hard-hit percentage ranks second-lowest among qualified pitchers, but his BABIP of .344 is the second-highest.
The bad/unlucky Luzardo showed up last time out, allowing five runs and seven hits (three homers) over six in a no-decision vs. the White Sox. But in four starts prior to that, he had allowed only two earned over 23.1 innings spanning four starts. Luzardo has been miles better on the road this year at 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA in six starts.
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Toronto ranks 28th in the majors in OPS vs. lefties at .649 and I simply don’t think Scherzer is a big-league pitcher at this point – maybe a reliever. The model has 9.6 total runs scored, and perhaps the Phils can get three of those in T1. Scherzer’s ERA in the first is 14.40. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
