PL relegation battle: Who will go down?

The Premier League’s relegation battle is heating up.

With basement boys Wolves nailed on for the drop, despite a brilliant home win over Aston Villa on Friday, there are two relegation spots to be decided.

The rest of the bottom six teams all lost at the weekend, making it another crunch round of Premier League fixtures this midweek.

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Second-bottom Burnley are eight points from safety, while West Ham occupy the final relegation spot in 18th and sit two points from safety with 10 games left.

But Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Leeds are all nervously looking over their shoulders.

With five teams fighting to avoid the final two relegation places, Sky Sports keeps track of the battle for survival…

The run-in

Aside from Wolves, the rest of the bottom six all have 10 games left.

The fixture list is in Spurs and Leeds’ favour based on the opposition’s league position, with Forest, West Ham and Burnley all having more difficult games left to play.

When are the six-pointers?

There are some crucial clashes between relegation rivals in the last three months of the season, with Leeds facing four of the bottom six in their final six fixtures, including a final-day trip to West Ham.

Here are the six-pointers which could be key in deciding the relegation battle:

March 22: Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest, live on Sky Sports
April 11: West Ham vs Wolves
April 18: Leeds vs Wolves & Forest vs Burnley
April 25: Wolves vs Tottenham
May 2: Leeds vs Burnley
May 9: Tottenham vs Leeds
May 24: Burnley vs Wolves & West Ham vs Leeds

The supercomputer’s relegation predictions…

The weekend’s results saw only Wolves win, with the rest of the bottom five suffering defeat.

Following those results, the Opta supercomputer still has the Hammers (69.4 per cent) as favourites to be relegated alongside Burnley (98.1 per cent) and Wolves (100 per cent).

Opta have given Forest a 25 per cent chance of going down, with Spurs at just five per cent and Leeds at only 2.1 per cent.

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How many points could be needed?

In the last nine Premier League seasons, teams finishing on 36 points or more have avoided relegation.

Last season, 26 points would have been enough to stay up as an exceptionally poor bottom three of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton all made an immediate return to the Championship.

Spurs took advantage of the trio’s weaknesses to focus on winning the Europa League as they finished a dismal 17th on 38 points – 13 points above 18th-placed Leicester.

But that luxury for Tottenham is not there this season as they face the very real possibility of relegation to the second tier of English football for the first time since 1977.

With the teams involved in the relegation fight significantly stronger than last season, the 40-point mark could well be being eyed up.

Only three teams have been relegated with 40 points or more in the 20-team Premier League era – Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03) – the latter holding the record for the team relegated with the most points with 42.

15th: Leeds

Leeds have lost two of their last seven league games as they sit 15th and six points off the bottom three.

But Daniel Farke’s side have won just once on the road in the league – a victory at Wolves in September – adding extra importance to their games at Elland Road, where they have lost just four times this season (W6 D4).

16th: Tottenham

“It would be the shock of the century. It would be absolutely mind-blowing to think that they could disappear out of this league, but I don’t think they will.”

Even if Gary Neville is confident the Premier League ever-presents will not be relegated, their form says otherwise, with Spurs sitting 16th and four points from the drop.

Igor Tudor’s side are on a club-record equalling 10-game winless Premier League run, are yet to win in 2026 and are battling a crippling absentee crisis.

17th: Nottingham Forest

Two points behind Spurs are 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, who are on a five-game winless run in the league.

Like new Spurs boss Tudor, Forest’s Vitor Pereira has not had the impact the club had hoped for after two defeats in his first two league games in charge.