Anytime some pitcher throws a no-hitter – and I mean the complete-game kind, not a bunch of relievers too – I feel somewhat obligated to look at his next start to see how he follows that up. Well, I’m cheating a bit tonight with Rays at Blue Jays because Dylan Cease got to the ninth with a no-no last time out before losing it. But he’s rolling, and Tampa Bay is not. It’s a 7:07 ET first pitch from Rogers Centre.
Rays-Blue Jays MLB same-game parlay
- Toronto money line
- Alt Under 9.5
DraftKings SGP price: +114
In his most recent start on July 8 in San Francisco, Cease had his no-hitter entering the bottom of the ninth, and I was so fascinated to see if Manager John Schneider would let him try to finish, as he had thrown a ton of pitches. But the point became moot when the Giants’ Heliot Ramos led off the inning with a line-drive single to center. Cease was pulled immediately, after a career-high 118 pitches, a whopping 81 of which were strikes. Very cool of Giants fans to give him a standing ovation (pictured).
Cease became the AL Cy Young favorite at some books after that (as well as at Kalshi), and as of Sunday at DraftKings was a co-favorite with the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler at +130. But Schlittler pitched Sunday and wasn’t great in a loss to the Dodgers, so now Cease is +130 and Schlittler +140.
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Now, I might worry about that high pitch count for Cease under normal circumstances, but so much time has passed since that I don’t think it’s a worry. And Cease also pitched in last Tuesday’s All-Star Game, getting the win for the American League after striking out three in the first inning. Looked plenty sharp to me.
Cease also threw seven shutout innings in his start prior to the Giants in Seattle. I have followed Cease pretty much his entire career, because he was once a touted Cubs prospect and then dealt to the White Sox. The 30-year-old, when he’s on, is as good as anyone. But sometimes his focus slips or whatever and it goes poorly. We should know in the top of the first tonight which guy we are getting. If Cease walks the Tampa Bay lead-off batter, that’s not good.
Cease is 1-3 at home in nine starts despite a 2.82 ERA due to lousy run support. Cease took a no-decision against the visiting Rays on May 13, allowing a run and three hits over seven in a game Toronto would eventually win in extra innings. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Cease at 5.5 innings, 7.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs. At DraftKings, he is +140 to win and set at Over/Under 7.5 Ks.
It’s pretty much now or never for the defending AL champions to make a wild card move, sitting seven games under .500 and 4.5 games out of the final spot in the Junior Circuit but with several other teams ahead of them. The schedule gets quite a bit tougher after this series – not that the AL East-leading Rays aren’t good, but they are 21-27 on the road. The model gives Toronto a 12.0% shot at the playoffs, while DK prices the team at +350, which equates to 22.2%. I don’t see it.
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Tampa Bay leads the division by 1.5 games over the Yankees but is a +130 second favorite with New York at +100 and that’s just a ton of Yankees money talking. Do I think the Rays win their first World Series? No … but I would change my tune if they got Tarik Skubal. And with new ownership trying to get a stadium built in Tampa, it sounds like they are willing to spend to acquire help at the Aug. 3 trade deadline. That’s something past Rays owners rarely did. I hope they do for selfish reasons so I can go possibly see a White Sox-Rays playoff game at the Trop.
It’s first-time All-Star Nick Martinez (8-2, 2.65 ERA) on the mound for Tampa Bay. I keep waiting for the 35-year-old journeyman righty to come crashing back to Earth – he lost 14 games last year with a 4.45 ERA with Cincinnati – but he hasn’t yet. He has been one of the most profitable starting pitchers in the majors at +$948 (Tampa Bay is 14-4 in his starts).
Martinez threw a scoreless inning in last week’s All-Star Game and faced the Jays once this season, allowing one run over five in a home win on May 4. Toronto lead-off hitter George Springer is 6-for-17 off him, with two homers. Overall, Martinez is 2-2 with a 5.83 ERA in 29.1 innings vs. the Blue Jays. The model has him at 6.1 innings, 3.6 strikeouts, 5.7 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs.
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The Rays have lost a season-high five straight games, their longest skid since April 2025. Tampa Bay had been one of eight big-league teams to not lose five or more consecutive games this season. It also has lost six in a row away. This sure looks like a potential pitchers’ duel. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
