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It’s a typically lighter Thursday around Major League Baseball, and the late game on the seven-game slate is the one I think has the best betting value parlay-wise as Colorado opens a four-game series at NL West rival and surging Arizona. It’s a first pitch of 9:40 ET from Chase Field and one of only two games to begin after 7:05 ET.  Thursdays are usually getaway days, so games are scheduled earlier; all the other matchups today are series finales.

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Rockies vs. Diamondbacks parlay

  • Arizona -1
  • Alt Under 11.5

DraftKings parlay: +120

Arizona opened the season missing ace Corbin Burnes and co-closers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez due to Tommy John surgery, and all three remain out. Puk should be back in early June, Burnes around the All-Star break and Martinez sometime after that. So if the team can just tread water until then … . 

Some early issues were probably to be expected sans that trio. On May 8, the Diamondbacks lost at home to the Mets in 10 innings for a third straight defeat and 10th in 13 games to fall to 17-20 on the season. But now the team is making a move. Wednesday afternoon’s 6-3 win over the visiting Giants got Arizona to 25-23 and was its fourth straight victory.

“We’re playing good baseball,” manager Torey Lovullo reported. “I love where we’re at right now. It’s as good as I’ve seen here in a long time.”

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It’s important to take advantage of weak spots in the 162-game MLB schedule, and Arizona has done that in taking two of three at Colorado last weekend followed by a sweep of the Giants. No reason not to take at least three of four this weekend vs. the Rockies. Then Arizona goes to San Francisco and Seattle (which has been a disappointment so far) for three each before the schedule toughens.

This team isn’t winning the NL West with the Dodgers and Padres in it, but a wild-card spot is a possibility. The Snakes are +245 to reach the postseason for the first time since 2023, when they lost in the World Series, and -295 to miss.

The pitching staff has been quite good even without Burnes, as since May 5, the rotation’s ERA of 2.53 ERA ranks second in the majors. Also in that span, Arizona starters have a league-best 11 quality starts. Thursday starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez had been an $80 million free-agent bust the past two years for Arizona, with ERAs north of 5.00 in each season, but is 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season.

This will be a chance for near-immediate payback, as Rodriguez lost at Colorado last Saturday, allowing three runs and nine hits over 5.1 innings. After throwing more than 30 pitches in a rough first inning, he calmed down and managed to pitch into the sixth. At home, the southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA and .165 opponents’ batting average in four starts. 

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There is such a thing as a “Coors Field Hangover” in terms of a team playing the day/night after a game in the thin air of Denver. The Rockies are in that spot tonight after losing 5-4 at home to Texas on Wednesday to complete a six-game home-stand. The Rockies have been competitive at home but are 9-16 away. They are 4-8 overall against lefties this year, like Rodriguez.

Zach Agnos will open for Colorado, and the righty hasn’t gotten a decision and has a 5.59 ERA in 29.0 innings spanning 13 appearances. He pitched a season-high 4.1 innings of relief last Friday vs. Arizona, allowing two runs and four hits in a no-decision.

Agnos was then optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque Sunday but then quickly recalled Monday after Jordan Beck was placed on the IL. It appears the plan is for Tanner Gordon to piggyback Agnos. Gordon hasn’t gotten a decision with a 6.59 ERA in 27.1 innings spanning seven appearances. This is why the Rockies are always so bad. They just can’t find pitching. 

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Arizona has just three home losses vs. Colorado since 2023, and this should not be a fourth. For the total purposes, I prefer the Rockies’ plan to use multiple pitchers as perhaps they each will only get one turn through the Arizona lineup. That should help in theory. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.