The thrilling second-round series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers continued on Wednesday when the Cavaliers took a 3-2 lead with a 117-113 overtime victory in Game 5 thanks to a late fourth-quarter comeback and a controversial no-call in the closing seconds of regulation.
After losing the first two games, the Cavaliers have won three straight and have a chance to close things out on Friday in Game 6 at home, where they’re a perfect 5-0 thus far in the postseason. But the Pistons, who were down 3-1 to the Orlando Magic in the first round, have been in this situation before, and won’t be afraid.
As the Central Division rivals fight to make a long-awaited return to the Eastern Conference finals — Cleveland hasn’t been there since 2018, while Detroit has been waiting since 2008 — the New York Knicks are enjoying some well-deserved time off after sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers in emphatic fashion to get back to the ECF for the second year in a row.
Ahead of Game 6 between the Cavaliers and Pistons, let’s take a look at which team the Knicks should want to advance.
Hoping for a Game 7
Regardless of which team ends up taking the series, the Knicks will be rooting for the Pistons to win Friday, which would set up Game 7 back in Detroit on Sunday.
The Knicks got off to a shaky start in the first round, but since falling behind 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks, they’ve won seven games in a row. They’ve also only played 10 games this postseason — two more than the minimum. They’ve won four of those games by at least 29 points, and another three by double digits. In fact, they’ve been winning so comfortably that Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges are averaging fewer minutes than they did in the regular season. OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are the only starters playing more minutes in the playoffs through the first two rounds.
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Jalen Brunson
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35
|
34.7
|
|
OG Anunoby
|
33.2
|
35.2
|
|
Mikal Bridges
|
32.8
|
29.2
|
|
Karl-Anthony Towns
|
31
|
28.5
|
|
Josh Hart
|
30.2
|
34
|
While the Knicks have been coasting along, the Pistons and Cavaliers have been fighting for their lives. Both teams needed seven games to get through their respective first-round series, and they could go the distance in the second round as well. If the Pistons win Game 6, then no matter which team wins Game 7, both possible Knicks opponents will have played 14 games — four more than New York.
The cumulative effect of those extra games is significant, especially when both the Pistons and Cavaliers have been playing nail-biters.
In addition, Game 7 would be on Sunday, May 17, and Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals is expected to be on Tuesday, May 19, giving the winner of Pistons-Cavaliers just one day off. The Knicks, meanwhile, haven’t taken the court since May 10. They’ll have a big rest advantage either way, but a Game 7 would ensure it’s even greater.
Cavaliers win = home-court advantage
The Pistons were the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and, at 60-22, had the third-best record in the entire league — four games better than the Knicks, who finished 56-26. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, had a disappointing regular season and wound up in fourth place at 52-30.
If the Pistons pull off a 3-2 comeback, they’ll have home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference finals, but if the Cavaliers get the job done, the Knicks will have home-court advantage. That’s a pretty big reason for the Knicks to cheer for the Cavs.
The Knicks were significantly better at home in Madison Square Garden than they were on the road during the regular season. They had the fourth-best home record in the league and the third-best home net rating. (Due to the NBA Cup, which they won, the Knicks only played 40 home games.)
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Home
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30-10
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120.8
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110.5
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+10.3
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59.5%
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|
Road
|
22-19
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116.4
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114
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+2.4
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58.2%
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In the playoffs, the Knicks have an identical 4-1 record at home and on the road, but they would still greatly prefer to have home-court advantage. The MSG crowd is one of the best in all of sports, and the Cavaliers have only won one road game (Game 5 against the Pistons) in the postseason.
Plus, if the Cavaliers advance, they’ll have to make the trek to New York for Game 1, where the Knicks are already waiting. If the Pistons were to come back, the Knicks would have to make an extra trip to get to Detroit for Game 1. Those small margins add up.
Pistons have better defense, Cavaliers have better offense
In terms of the specific on-court matchup, there’s a clear difference between the Knicks’ two possible opponents: the Pistons are by far the better defensive team, while the Cavaliers are by far the better offensive team. Here’s a look at their respective numbers in the postseason (rank among playoff teams in parentheses):
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Pistons
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110.8 (7th)
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51.1 (10th)
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107.2 (3rd)
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49.6% (2nd)
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Cavaliers
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113.6 (4th)
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54.6 (4th)
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113.4 (12th)
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52.6 (8th)
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The Pistons are extremely physical and athletic, and other than Duncan Robinson, who missed Game 5 against the Cavaliers due to a back injury, there’s no one you can hunt offensively. As we’ve seen over the last few years, Ausar Thompson and Co. can really bother Jalen Brunson and muck up the Knicks’ offense. New York won a narrow six-game series between the teams in the playoffs last season, and the Pistons dominated the regular-season matchup this season. Notably, two of the Knicks’ four worst offensive performances (by offensive rating) this season came against the Pistons.
On the flip side, Cunningham has been the Pistons’ only reliable playoff creator. He’s either scored or assisted on 207 of their 451 field goals (45.9%) during the postseason, and is personally responsible for 579 of their 1,260 points (45.9%). Tobias Harris is averaging 20.2 points per game, but his shooting has been erratic, and no one else is putting up more than 11.5 a night. And while the Pistons have actually shot the ball well from 3-point range (35.6%, tied for fifth among playoff teams), they’re reluctant to take them (28.6 attempts per game, 15th among playoff teams).
The Cavaliers are the opposite. There are numerous players you can attack offensively, including both members of their starting backcourt, Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Additionally, the Cavaliers are a terrible defensive rebounding team (35.2% opponent offensive rebounding rate, 15th among playoff teams), which would give the Knicks, a strong offensive rebounding team (33.6% offensive rebound rate, fourth among playoff teams), plenty of second-chance opportunities.
Of course, the Cavaliers present a much bigger defensive challenge than the Pistons. Mitchell and Harden, as inconsistent as they’ve been throughout this postseason, are two of the best individual shot creators in the league. Mitchell, a New York native, had multiple 30-point games against the Knicks this season, and Harden is also a dynamite playmaker and an elite foul drawer. Plus, Evan Mobley is far more versatile than any big on the Pistons, and Jarrett Allen is a real lob threat. Additionally, the Cavaliers have the second-highest 3-point rate (percentage of shots from 3-point range) in the postseason at 45.8% and have been the best offensive rebounding team (35% offensive rebound rate).
For what it’s worth, the Knicks were 0-3 against the Pistons this season and 2-1 against the Cavaliers, though their two victories over Cleveland came prior to the Harden trade.
There’s no easy answer here as to which team the Knicks would rather face. Ultimately, the Cavaliers are probably the pick. Yes, they have more offensive talent and a higher ceiling on paper, but they haven’t reached it all year, and the Knicks are better suited to the high-scoring, free-flowing type of basketball that matchup would present. Plus, the Knicks would have home-court advantage in that series.
