With the 2026 NHL playoffs set to begin on Saturday, there are 16 teams that need 16 wins to lift the Stanley Cup. Each of those wins will be harder to earn than the last, and only one team can hit magic No. 16 and hang a banner.
That’s what we’ve tried to predict before the puck drops on the postseason. Looking at the field — both from a roster perspective and based on what the oddsmakers in Vegas think — there is a clear tier of five favorites.
- Colorado Avalanche (+300)
- Carolina Hurricanes (+500)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (+500)
- Dallas Stars (+1000)
- Vegas Golden Knights (+1000)
The reigning Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers (+1300) will be in the mix as well, but the status of Leon Draisaitl is a real cause for concern. If the Minnesota Wild (+1500) can get past the Stars in the first round, they could be a dangerous dark horse as well.
In the Eastern Conference, the Ottawa Senators (+2000) are a much better team than their place in the standings would indicate. Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins (+2200) are hoping for at least one more magical run at the Stanley Cup.
Over the next few months, the best players in the world will lay it all on the line for a 35-pound piece of silver and nickel alloy. Which team will get its name etched on that iconic trophy?
Stanley Cup Final picks
(odds via BetMGM)
Nivison: This pick is full of chalk, but I can’t overlook what my eyes and the numbers have told me all season long. The Avalanche and Lightning have been a cut — or two — above the competition in almost every aspect of the game. The Avs and Bolts are comfortably inside the top 10 of the league when it comes to creating scoring chances and goals, as well as preventing them.
If this is the matchup we get in the Stanley Cup Final, it will be a kaiju fight on ice. Colorado and Tampa Bay have Hart Trophy candidates (Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov), elite depth and have gotten strong goaltending. If one team has a slight edge, it’s the Avalanche. Following the acquisitions of Nazem Kadri and Nic Roy, they have the best center depth in the NHL, and that matters in the postseason. Colorado also has something that Tampa Bay doesn’t — a true No. 1 defenseman in his prime in Cale Makar. Besides, as good as the Lightning have been, their plus-59 goal differential is still 40 behind the Avalanche’s mark of plus-99. The Avalanche outlast the Lightning for their fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history. Pick — Avalanche def. Lightning 4-3 (Avalanche future odds: +300)
Conn Smythe Trophy: Martin Necas | RW | Avalanche
There’s a strong case to be made that Nathan MacKinnon has been the best player in the league this year, but he hasn’t done it alone. Necas has been riding shotgun the whole time, and he just set new career highs in goals (38), assists (62) and points (100). As opposing defenses really hone in on MacKinnon in the playoffs, Necas might get a little more room to operate, and that’s more than enough for him to do big damage. (Conn Smythe Trophy odds: +2200)
Baumgartner: The last team to win the Stanley Cup after winning the Presidents’ Trophy for having the NHL’s best record that season was the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013. This Avalanche squad has the right pieces to end the decade-long drought and break the curse. MacKinnon was on another level this year, winning his first Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the NHL’s goal-scoring leader (53 goals) and finishing the season third in scoring with 127 points. Colorado’s strong goaltending from Scott Wedgewood was another standout in an award-worthy season. The 33-year-old goalie led the NHL with a 2.02 GAA and a .921 save percentage. Add 100-point scorer Martin Necas, point-per-game defenseman Cale Makar and a shut down two-way center in Brock Nelson to the mix, Colorado has the formula to win the Stanley Cup. Pick — Avalanche def. Lightning 4-2
Conn Smythe Trophy: Nathan MacKinnon | C | Avalanche
A fantastic regular season has MacKinnon in the conversation to win his second Hart Trophy as the NHL’s MVP. The race will be close, with other candidates like Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov and Macklin Celebrini all having standout seasons of their own. I don’t know who will win the Hart, but I am confident that if Colorado were to win the Stanley Cup, MacKinnon would be the driving factor. (Conn Smythe Trophy odds: +500)
