Not every great player is going to have a great Fantasy season. As much as we want to believe that all the guys ranked in Round 1 will be studs, some, unfortunately, will be duds. That happened last year to a high percentage.We ran this story about making the case for first-round busts in 2025 after the second week of preseason action, and five of the top-12 players from the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data at that time ended up as busts. Those players were Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ashton Jeanty and Malik Nabers.
Barkley was drafted as the No. 3 overall player but finished at No. 30 overall in PPR as RB15. I was concerned about Barkley last year coming off his standout 2024 campaign when he rushed for over 2,000 yards, and he was a tremendous letdown in 2025. He should rebound this season and is worth drafting in Round 2.
Jefferson was selected as the No. 5 overall player but finished at No. 6 overall as WR32. He was plagued by poor quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy, who should get replaced this season by Kyler Murray. I’m hopeful Murray will elevate Jefferson back to first-round status, and I would draft him as high as No. 11 overall.
Lamb was drafted as the No. 6 overall player but finished at No. 32 overall as WR12. He suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3 that cost him three games, and he was outplayed for the season by George Pickens. Lamb should bounce back in 2026, and I would draft him as high as No. 10 overall.
The expectations for Jeanty were too high in his rookie season when he was drafted at No. 10 overall but finished at No. 31 overall as RB16. He struggled in a poor offensive environment, but the Raiders made several changes this season that should help Jeanty with a new coach (Klint Kubiak), revamped offensive line (center Tyler Linderbaum was the main addition) and upgraded quarterbacks (Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins). I’m buying back in on Jeanty as early as No. 12 overall this year.
Nabers only played four games last season due a torn ACL, so we’ll put him on this list with an asterisk. Still, he was drafted at No. 11 overall but finished at No. 35 overall as WR14. We’re hopeful Nabers will play in Week 1 this season, but the earliest he should be drafted is Round 3
Now that we’ve reviewed what happened last year, let’s look ahead to the first-round picks for this season using the current CBS Sports ADP (INSERT LINK HERE) and make the case why they could be busts. I’m not expecting all of these players to fail since most of them are ranked in my first round. But maybe the reasoning on why they could struggle will change your perspective, and you might pivot to a different player with less concerns.
CBS Sports Round 1 ADP
1. Jahmyr Gibbs
Why he’ll be a bust: This is a tough one because all I see is the upside for Gibbs with David Montgomery gone. Let’s start with the hope that Gibbs gets a boost in total touches since his career high so far is 320 from last season. In the past 10 years, only two running backs to finish No. 1 at the position in PPR failed to have at least 343 total touches, which were Austin Ekeler in 2022 (311) and Alvin Kamara in 2020 (270). The average amount of carries for the No. 1 running back in the past 10 years is 285.1, and Gibbs has maxed out at 250 in 2024. We’ll see how much Isiah Pacheco keeps Gibbs off the field this season. The offensive line is also revamped in Detroit with Penei Sewell moving from right tackle to left tackle to replace Taylor Decker, rookie Blake Miller likely the new right tackle and center Cade Mays the new center to replace Frank Ragnow. Pro Football Focus ranked the Lions’ offensive line at No. 12 last season. Finally, we have a new offensive coordinator in Detroit with Drew Petzing, who held the same position with the Cardinals for the past three seasons. Arizona was No. 31 in rushing yards in 2025.
Why he won’t: Let’s review a few things from above. While the Cardinals struggled to run the ball in 2025, they were No. 7 in rushing yards in 2024 and No. 4 in 2023 under Petzing. James Conner was limited to three games last season due to injury, but Petzing helped Conner average at least 15.5 PPR points per game in each of the first two years they were together. While Gibbs never had more than 320 total touches in a season yet, he has two years on his resume with at least 18 total touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. And total touchdowns helped boost Ekeler in 2022 (18) and Kamara in 2020 (21) despite their low carries and total touches. While Pacheco could be a factor, Gibbs has been dominant when Montgomery was out. Since 2023, Montgomery missed six games due to injury, and Gibbs scored at least 25.4 PPR points in five of them. When Montgomery missed three games in 2024 due to a knee injury, Gibbs averaged 32.6 PPR points over that span. I’m counting on Gibbs to get over 350 total touches this season, still score at least 15 total touchdowns and be a factor in the passing game — he had 77 catches for 616 yards and five touchdowns on 94 targets in 2025. He’s my No. 1 player this year.
2. Bijan Robinson
Why he’ll be a bust: I’m excited for Robinson with Kevin Stefanski as his new coach and Tua Tagovailoa as his expected new quarterback, but we have to hope Stefanski continues to use Robinson in the passing game to a high level. Former offensive coordinator Zac Robinson gave Bijan Robinson 72 targets in 2024 and 103 targets in 2025. Stefanski hasn’t had a running back get more than 63 targets in a season since 2020 during his time with the Browns, and his No. 1 running back in targets over that span averaged just 44.7 targets a year. Robinson only scored seven rushing touchdowns in 2025 compared to eight for Tyler Allgeier. Even though Allgeier is gone from Atlanta, we could still see Bijan Robinson give up goal-line work to Brian Robinson Jr. The offensive line for the Falcons also has a major change with Jawaan Taylor as the new right tackle, and Taylor opened training camp on the PUP list with an ankle injury.
Why he won’t: Robinson has been awesome since entering the NFL in 2023. Over that span he leads all players in scrimmage yards with 5,648 and leads all running backs in receiving yards with 1,738. While Stefanski’s history of throwing to running backs isn’t ideal, Tagovailoa has been a checkdown king. According to Fantasy Points, Tagovalioa is No. 2 in the NFL over the past two seasons in target rate to running backs at 24.5 percent, trailing only Shedeur Sanders (25.5 percent). In Miami, Tagovailoa helped De’Von Achane get 172 targets over the past two seasons for 145 catches, 1,080 yards and 10 touchdowns. And while Allgeier was a nuisance for Bijan Robinson last year as a touchdown vulture, Brian Robinson Jr. was a non-factor in San Francisco while playing in tandem with Christian McCaffrey, scoring just two rushing touchdowns with only 92 carries for 400 yards. It’s hard to expect Brian Robinson impacting Bijan Robinson to a high degree, and he should be drafted at No. 2 overall in all leagues.
3. Ja’Marr Chase
Why he’ll be a bust: The biggest concern for Chase if Joe Burrow staying healthy. When Burrow is healthy, Chase is a star and potentially the No. 1 player in Fantasy. Last year, Chase averaged 20.1 PPR points in eight games with Burrow. Chase was the Triple Crown winner in 2024 — NFL leader in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and receiving touchdowns (17) — and averaged a career-best 23.7 PPR points when Burrow played a full season. And Chase averaged 18.9 PPR points in 10 games with Burrow in 2023. By comparison, without Burrow, Chase has struggled. He averaged at 19.1 PPR points in eight games without Burrow in 2025 and just 12.2 PPR points in six games without Burrow in 2023.
Why he won’t: While we love Chase and Burrow together, the Bengals have a good backup plan if Burrow gets hurt — at least for Chase. Joe Flacco is the No. 2 quarterback in Cincinnati, and he was great for Chase in five games together in 2025. Chase averaged 21.5 PPR points over that span with Flacco, and it’s comforting to know that if Burrow does get injured again that Chase can still be dominant. Since entering the NFL in 2021, Chase is No. 2 in total targets over that span with 767, trailing only Davante Adams (779). Chase averages 9.8 targets per game for his career, but he was No. 1 in the NFL in 2025 at 11.6 targets per game. Fantasy managers who want to avoid Gibbs or Robinson can pivot to Chase at No. 1 overall, and he’s my favorite receiver this season, especially if Burrow is healthy.
4. Puka Nacua
Why he’ll be a bust: Nacua had the best season of his career in 2025 with career highs in catches (129), yards (1,715), touchdowns (10), targets (166) and PPR points per game (23.4). He was the No. 1 Fantasy receiver, but then came a rough offseason. He checked into a rehab facility in March and dealt with a civil lawsuit stemming from a Dec. 31, 2025 incident. All appears to be fine at the start of training camp, and we hope Nacua can remain a dominant force on the field. He’s averaged at least 17.6 PPR points per game in each of his three seasons in the NFL, but he saw a significant spike in 2025 with his touchdown totals since he combined for nine total in his first two years. The Rams offense was exceptional in 2025, but they could regress in 2026, especially with an improved defense featuring key additions in Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie. There’s less potential for shootouts for Matthew Stafford, which could impact Nacua’s high-end production.
Why he won’t: We haven’t heard a negative thing reported about Nacua in months, which hopefully means he’s focused on football and trying to earn a long-term contract extension. He should continue to dominate targets from Stafford, and Nacua was second in the NFL last season behind only Chase at 10.4 targets per game. We hope his touchdown total remains high, and anything close to double digits in that category should keep Nacua in contention to be the No. 1 receiver again in 2026. Despite sharing the field with Adams last season for the first time, Nacua remained the go-to option in the passing game for the Rams, which should continue this season. It would not be a surprise to see Nacua drafted at No. 1 overall, but I would prefer to select him at No. 4 behind Gibbs, Robinson and Chase.
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Why he’ll be a bust: Smith-Njigba was the breakout star of 2025 when he set career highs in catches (119), yards (1,793), touchdowns (10) and targets (163), and he averaged a career-best 21.2 PPR points per game. He was named the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Seattle won Super Bowl LX, and Smith-Njigba then became the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history with a four-year, $168.6 million contract extension. It’s good to be JSN — unless we get regression. What if 2025 was a fluke, and Smith-Njigba reverts back to his 2024 form, which was good, just not great? He had 100 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns on 137 targets and averaged 14.9 PPR points per game that season. In 2025, Smith-Njigba was clearly the focal point of the passing game, but Rashid Shaheed is getting some buzz early in training camp. Cooper Kupp is still on the roster, and Tory Horton (shin) is healthy. Less targets could potentially knock JSN down a tier, and we’re also relying on Sam Darnold once again to keep his No. 1 receiver at a superstar level.
Why he won’t: We should be done worrying about Darnold since he helped Jefferson average 18.7 PPR points per game in 2024 and Smith-Njigba produce at a high level in 2025. While Shaheed, Kupp and Horton could be factors, it would be shocking if Smith-Njigba wasn’t among the target leaders in the NFL again in 2026 (he was No. 7 in 2025 at 9.6 targets per game). I could see even more production for Smith-Njigba this year with Seattle’s run game potentially struggling with Kenneth Walker III gone and Zach Charbonnet (knee) injured. I love Smith-Njigba as a top-five overall pick.
6. Jonathan Taylor
Why he’ll be a bust: We saw the best of Taylor in 2025 when Daniel Jones was healthy and then the worst after Jones was injured. In the first 10 games last season, Taylor averaged 27.4 PPR points per game. To put that in perspective, Christian McCaffrey was the No. 1 running back in 2025 at 24.5 PPR points. Jones suffered a broken leg in Week 10, which he played through, and then a ruptured Achilles in Week 14, and Taylor averaged just 12.6 PPR points per game in his final seven outings. Jones is healthy at the start of training camp, but any missed time could impact Taylor’s Fantasy upside again this year. And the Colts have reported they want to limit his touches — he led the NFL in 2025 with 323 carries and his 369 total touches were a career high — so maybe we aren’t getting the usual workhorse performance from Taylor in 2026.
Why he won’t: It’s easy to say in the offseason that Taylor should get more rest, but it’s another thing to take him off the field in favor of D.J. Giddens or Seth McGowan. Taylor averages 20.7 touches per game for his career, and we loved his involvement in the passing game in 2025 with career highs in catches (46), receiving yards (378) and targets (55). Those stats could be replicated given Michael Pittman’s absence, especially with Alec Pierce (ankle) potentially limited early in the season. Taylor’s touchdown prowess is also fantastic, and he led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2025 with 18. He has scored at least 11 rushing touchdowns in four of his six years in the NFL, and he has two seasons over that span (2021 and 2025) with 20 total touchdowns. I would draft Taylor as the No. 3 running back this season behind Gibbs and Robinson.
7. Christian McCaffrey
Why he’ll be a bust: I’m worried about McCaffrey since he turned 30 in June and just had 450 total touches in 2025, including the playoffs (337 carries and 113 catches). This is the third time in McCaffrey’s career that he had at least 400 total touches in a season (2023 with the 49ers and 2019 with Carolina) and he missed 13 games due to injury the following year both times. In 2024 he struggled with Achilles and knee problems and was limited to four games. In 2020 in Carolina, McCaffrey played just three games due to three separate injuries (a right high-ankle sprain, a shoulder A/C joint sprain and a thigh/glute strain). We can’t predict injuries, but the history suggests McCaffrey might not hold up in 2026. And the 49ers could have a better receiving corps in 2026 compared to 2025 with the additions of Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, De’Zhaun Stribling and Christian Kirk, especially if George Kittle (Achilles) is healthy for Week 1. McCaffrey also averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season, which was his lowest total since 2020.
Why he won’t: When healthy, McCaffrey is awesome, and he was just the No. 1 non-quarterback in 2025 at 24.5 PPR points per game, which is the sixth time in his career that he’s averaged more than 21.1 PPR points. We haven’t heard anything about his health heading into training camp, and that wasn’t the case at this time in 2024. That year, in early August, McCaffrey was dealing with a calf strain, and he ended up being out until Week 10. Hopefully, he won’t have to deal with any injuries, and McCaffrey can again be the catalyst of San Francisco’s offense — and your Fantasy roster. I’m concerned about McCaffrey’s outlook for this year, but I would still draft him in the back end of Round 1.
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown
Why he’ll be a bust: In 2024, Jameson Williams had a breakout season, and Sam LaPorta was healthy all year. St. Brown was still awesome that season at 18.7 PPR points per game, but he only had 141 targets, which was his lowest total in the past four years. And his 1,263 yards in 2024 was his worst production in the past three seasons. Luckily, he scored a career-high 12 touchdowns in 2024. LaPorta returns this season after being limited to nine games in 2025 due to a back injury, and he could have an expanded role with tight-end friendly offensive coordinator Drew Petzing now calling plays. Williams should continue to be a significant factor, and Isaac TeSlaa could get more playing time and targets. And let’s not forget about Gibbs. As good as St. Brown is, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit.
Why he won’t: St. Brown has been the model of consistency for the past three seasons with at least 18.7 PPR points or more in each year. To put that in perspective, Chase and Nacua have only done that in two of the past three seasons, and Smith-Njigba just once over that span. Since 2023, St. Brown is second in the NFL in targets with 477, trailing only Chase (505). St. Brown is also third in receiving yards over that span with 4,179, behind Chase (4,336) and Nacua (4,191). And St. Brown is No. 1 in touchdowns since 2023 with 33. The Lions have one of the best schedules this season and play outdoors just twice from Weeks 5-17. And even with LaPorta healthy, Petzing having an affinity for his tight ends and Williams, TeSlaa and Gibbs all getting their touches, St. Brown will once again be the go-to target for Jared Goff when healthy. St. Brown should be drafted as high as No. 6 overall.
9. De’Von Achane
Why he’ll be a bust: According to Fantasy Points, the quarterback with the second-highest target rate to running backs since 2023 was Tagovailoa at 24.5 percent, which trails only Shedeur Sanders at 25.5 percent. The quarterback with the lowest target rate to running backs over that span was Malik Willis at 10.8 percent. That’s telling given how much Achane was involved as a receiver for the Dolphins, as he’s averaged 86 targets and 72.5 receptions the past two seasons. Now, Willis will obviously use Achane as a weapon in the passing game, especially given the state of Miami’s receiving corps going into the season. But Willis will run much more than Tagovailoa, so expect Achane’s production as a receiver to decline this year. We’ll also see just how much Tagovailoa’s absence — as well as coach Mike McDaniel — will hinder Achane. He averaged 21.5 PPR points in 25 games with Tagovailoa in the past two seasons and just 10.5 PPR points in eight games without Tagovailoa over that span. The Dolphins aren’t expected to win many games in 2025 — their projected win total is 4.5 — so touchdown opportunities could be tough for Achane.
Why he won’t: Achane is awesome, and he overcame a bad Miami offense in 2025 to still average 20.1 PPR points per game, which was good enough to be the No. 5 running back. Last season, the Dolphins were No. 25 in points and No. 26 in total yards. Are they going to be that much worse in 2026? Willis might not involve Achane in the passing game to the same degree as Tagovailoa, but Miami’s receiving corps could be atrocious, at least on paper. They have unproven veterans in Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell, and we should see contributions from rookies Caleb Douglas, Kevin Coleman Jr. and Chris Bell (knee), if healthy, along with tight end Greg Dulcich. If your Willis and Dolphins’ offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, you would give Achane the ball as much as possible. I’m not drafting Achane in Round 1, but he will hopefully overcome his poor offensive environment and perform like he did in 2025.
10. James Cook
Why he’ll be a bust: Cook won the NFL rushing title in 2025 with 1,621 yards, and he scored 12 touchdowns on 309 carries. But winning the rushing title hasn’t been a good thing the past five seasons. Since 2020, the winner of the rushing title — Derrick Henry in 2020, Taylor in 2021, Josh Jacobs in 2022, McCaffrey in 2023 and Barkley in 2024 — had their rushing yards decrease by at least 848 the next season. And they had a decline by at least six touchdowns. Only Barkley played a full season the following year, with Henry and McCaffrey suffering serious injuries. Joe Brady reported he wants the Bills to use Ray Davis and Ty Johnson more to give Cook a breather, and Brady might be inclined to throw the ball more now that he’s the head coach, especially with the addition of D.J. Moore.
Why he won’t: The recent history of rushing champions isn’t ideal, but Cook will hopefully stay healthy and continue to produce at a high level. Last season was the first time he had over 300 carries, and more pass attempts in Buffalo should help Cook, who has averaged 36 receptions for 331 yards and three touchdowns on 44 targets in the past three seasons. Despite Josh Allen rushing for 26 touchdowns the past two years, Cook still has 28 rushing touchdowns over that span. It would be a surprise if he lost significant playing time to either Davis or Johnson, and Cook should be drafted toward the end of Round 1 in all leagues.
11. CeeDee Lamb
Why he’ll be a bust: We saw it last season when Lamb was a bust due to two main reasons. He suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3, which cost him three games, and he was outplayed by Pickens for the season. Lamb averaged 14.6 PPR points per game, which was his lowest total since 2021, and he finished the year with 75 catches for 1,077 yards and three touchdowns on 117 targets. Lamb once again has to contend with Pickens, and the two were close in targets per game in 2025 (Lamb was at 8.4 and Pickens at 8.1). Jake Ferguson is also in the mix, and the Cowboys are high on third-year receiver Ryan Flournoy, who could have an increased role. Additionally, Dak Prescott played all 17 games in 2025, but he hasn’t had back-to-back healthy seasons since 2018-19. And the defense could be dramatically better with the additions of Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence, which could lead to less shootouts.
Why he won’t: If healthy, Lamb should be the No. 1 receiver in Dallas, but keep expectations in check. He’s had one dominant campaign in 2023 when he averaged 23.7 PPR points per game, but otherwise he’s been at 17.7 PPR points per game or less for the rest of his career. The hope for Lamb is him and Prescott staying healthy, as well as better touchdown luck. Lamb had 12 end zone targets in 2025 and caught just two of them. Lamb and Pickens will hopefully both average more than eight targets per game this season, and even though the defense is better, it shouldn’t stop Prescott from throwing. He has averaged 34.6 pass attempts a game over the past four years. I would draft Lamb toward the end of Round 1 in all leagues.
12. Chase Brown
Why he’ll be a bust: Brown, like Chase, might just be too dependent on Burrow. Last season, Brown was excellent with Burrow, averaging 20.9 PPR points in the seven healthy games they played together. Brown averaged 13.6 PPR points per game in 10 outings when Burrow was injured. The offensive line isn’t ideal for Brown since they’ve ranked No. 26, No. 30 and No. 28 in three years a row by Pro Football Focus, but Brown has still averaged at least 4.1 yards per carry in each season over that span. The Bengals have tried for each of the past two seasons to find a complement for Brown with Zack Moss in 2024 and Samaje Perine in 2025, and Perine could impact Brown’s reception total if healthy.
Why he won’t: It’s challenging to make a case against Brown because he’s been amazing when Burrow is healthy. And he’s closed each of the past two seasons on a tear. He averaged 22.3 PPR points per game in his final six outings in 2025 — all while Burrow was healthy — and Brown averaged 20.6 PPR points per game in his final eight games in 2024. Burrow recently raved about Brown, saying, “He does everything. He’s a complete back.” Brown has played at least 80 percent of the snaps in 11 games since 2024, and he should be the workhorse for the Bengals again this season. He’s also in a contract year, which should help his motivation, and Brown is worth drafting toward the end of Round 1 in all leagues.
