The rise of the most unexpected Wimbledon quarterfinalistsElise Mertens upset former Wimbledon champ and No. 2-seed Elena Rybakina in the third round. Robert Prange/Getty ImagesD’Arcy MaineMultiple AuthorsJul 7, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
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WIMBLEDON, England — Elise Mertens didn’t know if she would ever reach the quarterfinals at the All England Club.
She made the fourth round on three previous occasions but never could reach the last eight. It had been six long years since she had reached the quarters at any major in singles, and even longer since her lone semifinal appearance at the 2018 Australian Open. Now, at 30, she knew her window was closing.
But after she pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the tournament against No. 2 seed and 2022 champion Elena Rybakina in the third round, 7-6 (4), 6-1, she let herself dream. And two days later, she defeated Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-4 to make the quarterfinals.
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“I was thinking maybe this is my chance, who knows, [maybe] my last chance,” Mertens stated after the win. “Maybe not, maybe yes. But, yeah, I’m over 30 now. To eventually get it done, [to make] a quarterfinals, is something amazing. I think I really had to believe in myself to do it today.”
Mertens is hardly the only unexpected quarterfinalist this year. Often one of the more unpredictable majors due to the quick turnaround from the clay and the adjustment to the grass, there is guaranteed to be a first-time women’s Wimbledon champion for the ninth consecutive tournament.
In addition to the early exit of Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, the reigning champion, was stunned in the same round by Alexandra Eala. Serena Williams, a six-time singles champion, made her return as a wild card after a four-year absence but lost in her opening-round match. Marketa Vondrousova, the surprise winner in 2023, was given a four-year suspension last month for refusing to take a drug test.
Barbora Krejcikova, who won two years ago, was the last former champion standing. She lost on Sunday in the fourth round.
With the absence of the proven winners at the All England Club — as well as other contenders such as world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and 2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimova, and newly crowned French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, who was stunned in the second round — there is an incredible opportunity ahead for all of the remaining women in the draw. All eight of the quarterfinalists lack substantial results at Wimbledon, and largely on grass, but even still, the two sides of the draw are stark contrasts.
The top half features two multiple-time major champions in No. 14 Naomi Osaka and No. 7 Coco Gauff, as well as major finalists Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova, The other features Mertens, as well as No. 13 Jasmine Paolini, the only former Wimbledon finalist remaining, and two players hoping to make their first Slam final: No. 9 Linda Noskova and No. 12 Marta Kostyuk. It’s a completely surprising group that few could have predicted — and one of them will be a finalist or the champion in just a few days’ time.
Ahead of Wednesday’s quarterfinals matches, here’s what you need to know about the four women who are all looking to make history at Wimbledon this week.
Country: Belgium
Players she has beaten so far: Laura Siegemund, Maria Timofeeva, No. 2 Elena Rybakina, No. 21 Marie Bouzkova
Up next: Noskova
Previous best result at Wimbledon: Fourth round (2019, 2022, 2025); Doubles champion (2021, 2025)
Wimbledon Women’s Odds(14) Naomi Osaka
After claiming the first set against Rybakina in a hard-fought, “up and down” tiebreak, Mertens was brimming with confidence and knew she could win the match.
“I was saying to myself, ‘OK, she has to win another two [sets] to win this one,'” Mertens stated after the match. “I really kept on believing in myself. I think that was the key today.”
While Mertens hasn’t gone deep in Slams in singles in recent years, the former world No. 12 has been a mainstay in major finals in doubles. Since winning her first trophy at the 2019 US Open alongside Sabalenka, Mertens has won five more, including two at Wimbledon, and reached two other finals. While not quite the same, that experience — of maintaining energy and expectations for two grueling weeks at a time — has kept her prepared for this moment.
“I would say definitely that it helps a lot,” Mertens stated on Monday. “Playing finals in a Grand Slam in doubles is very nerve-wracking. You win or you lose that day. That [experience] definitely helped to calm my nerves today a little bit, too, to eventually take that second set 6-4, to serve it out.”
Because Mertens finished her match several hours before Noskova took the court, Mertens wasn’t sure who she would be playing but she stated she was just “soaking it all in.” They have never faced one another before, but Mertens made it clear it didn’t matter who she played. She would be ready and give it everything she had.
“I’m motivated,” Mertens stated. “I’m still motivated, of course, because you never know where it ends. I think the key is to believe in yourself, to take the chances that you can get.”
Country: Czechia
Players she has beaten so far: Ella Seidel, Camila Osorio, No. 17 Sorana Cirstea, No. 26 Madison Keys
Up next: Mertens
Previous best result at Wimbledon: Fourth round (2025)
The youngest of all of the quarterfinalists at 21, Noskova had one of the most impressive grass-court seasons before arriving to Wimbledon by winning the singles and doubles title at last month’s 500-level Berlin Open. Across the two draws, she dropped just one set — in the singles final against Pegula.
Wimbledon Men’s Odds(1) Jannik Sinner
After her fourth-round appearance last season, and due to her results in Berlin, Noskova knew she could do well at Wimbledon.
“I am having a blast on court,” Noskova stated on Monday. “I was looking forward [to] grass season. I feel like last year it was the year that it actually clicked for me. It’s great to be back at Wimbledon. I always treasure these moments.
“I had a great start in Berlin. I feel like I kind of got into a momentum that I do not want to lose.”
She has needed multiple tiebreaks, deciders and clutch moments, but has stayed dominant, even as the stakes get higher.
Against the big-serving Keys, who won the Eastbourne title before arriving to London, Noskova was patient and measured. In the opening set, Keys was serving to stay in the set at 5-4 and ran out to a 40-0 lead. But Noskova didn’t quit. She won the next five points to steal the set.
“Those are opportunities that you just can’t let go of when you’re playing someone that good,” Keys stated after.
Now into the second major quarterfinals of her career — two years after a stunning run in her debut at the Australian Open, which included a win over then-No. 1 Swiatek — Noskova stated she wasn’t concerned about who was left in the draw. In fact, she stated she hadn’t looked at the draw once all tournament. But she does know she will play Mertens next with a chance to reach her first Slam semifinal, and is embracing the unknown of it all.
“Obviously [I] know her game style,” Noskova stated. “She’s trying to be as aggressive as possible. So am I. I don’t think there will be many rallies or slow games. I’ll have to use what I do the best.
“We’ve never even played a practice before. Sometimes it’s good just to go there with a clear head.”
Jasmine Paolini made the Wimbledon final in 2024 — but has had a tough year in 2026, with very little preparation on grass because of injury. Susan Mullane-Imagn ImagesNo. 13 Jasmine PaoliniCountry: ItalyPlayers she has beaten so far: Robin Montgomery, Viktorija Golubic, Maria Sakkari, No. 29 Alexandra Eala
Up next: Kostyuk
Previous best result at Wimbledon: Finals (2024)
The most accomplished among the four, Paolini had her breakout season in 2024 when she reached the finals at both the French Open — in singles and doubles — and at Wimbledon. She had never previously won a match at the All England Club, but quickly enamored herself to the crowd with her wide smile, clear joy and small stature. She lost in a three-set final to Krejcikova but cracked the top five with her run. By the end of the year, she had won Olympic gold in doubles with Sara Errani and helped lead Italy to a Billie Jean King Cup title.
Paolini won her first 1000-title at the Italian Open in 2025, as well as the French Open doubles title, but she didn’t fare quite as well in singles play at majors last season. She lost in the second round at Wimbledon.
This year, according to Paolini, has been a “roller coaster.” The 30-year-old sustained a foot injury at Roland Garros, lost in the second round, and needed time to rest and recover. She returned the week before Wimbledon, losing her opening-round match at Eastbourne. With little preparation on grass, and not knowing how she would do, Paolini withdrew from doubles with Errani. And it looked initially like her stint at the All England Club would be quick. She was bageled in the opening set of her first-round match against Montgomery.
But Paolini, as she so often does, fought back. She won — and called it her best match of the year. She has only gotten better since, improving and finding her form on grass with every match she plays. Against Sakkari, a two-time major semifinalist, she gave up just three games.
On Monday, against Eala, Paolini had to dig deep. With her idol Roger Federer looking on, and back on Centre Court for the first time since her loss two years ago in the final, Paolini broke a nervy Eala in just the third game of the match and seemed to be comfortably in command. But Eala ultimately found her rhythm and forced a decider. During the back-and-forth final set, a composed Paolini broke Eala in the eighth game to take the edge, and then connivingly closed it out. With the win, Paolini became the first Italian woman to reach multiple quarterfinals at Wimbledon.
Paolini later told reporters her game began clicking again after the first set against Montgomery — and she has been letting it fuel her ever since.
“I think even [when] I lost the first set 6-0, I was there trying to stay positive, was repeating to myself, ‘OK, [it] can only get better than this,'” Paolini stated on Monday. “I knew that the first round was a tough one, was a tough match, because Montgomery was playing really well on grass. I think it gave me confidence for the next matches. I think point by point, I was feeling better.
“I think also I approach those kind of matches in the positive way, in the right way. No matter the score, I’m there trying to play the next point as better as I can.”
Paolini holds a 2-1 career record over Kostyuk but the two haven’t faced one another since 2023. Both are much better players now, and Paolini knows it will be a battle with a lot on the line.
“I think she’s playing great tennis this year,” Paolini stated. “She improved a lot. She can be really aggressive. She’s a great athlete. She can move really well on court.
“It’s going to be a tough, tough match. We have to prepare [for] it well.”
Country: Ukraine
Players she has beaten so far: Nadia Podoroska, Anna Blinkova, No. 23 Emma Navarro, Ashlyn Krueger
Up next: Paolini
Previous best result at Wimbledon: Third round (2023, 2024)
It’s been an incredible season for the 24-year-old. With back-to-back titles on clay, including her biggest trophy to date at the 1000-level Madrid Open, Kostyuk carried a 17-match win streak all the way until the semifinals at Roland Garros.
Recording wins over four-time champion Swiatek and fellow countrywoman Elina Svitolina in Paris, it marked Kostyuk’s best performance at a major. She lost to eventual winner Andreeva but the run helped continue her rise up the rankings.
Originally slated to play at Queen’s Club to start her grass season, Kostyuk withdrew with a right ankle injury. She didn’t play a single match on the surface before arriving at Wimbledon — and told the WTA she didn’t even win a set in her practice sessions on the ground, including against Serena Williams. Her expectations for herself were low.
But one wouldn’t know any of that from watching her on the grass over the first four rounds. Kostyuk has continued her previous clay-court dominance and reeled off win after win. On Monday, playing Krueger, an American qualifier, she raced out to a 4-1 start behind her aggressive and relentless game plan. In the second set, she found herself trailing 4-2 but responded by winning the next four games. While she later stated she struggled with the pressure of being the favorite to win the match and in the hot conditions — temperatures soared over 90 degrees Fahrenheit — she needed just an hour and 23 minutes to advance.
Now into her third major quarterfinals, Kostyuk was happy to have achieved it for the first time at Wimbledon — “a special place” — but was less emotional than previously in doing it.
“When you have huge success when you’re young, a lot of new things happen to you, and you have no idea how to deal with it, and then once you know what it takes to get there, once you’ve done it couple of times, you kind of know what to expect a little bit,” Kostyuk told reporters on Monday. “Of course, it makes things probably less exciting but more stable. I think it’s the same here.”
And no matter what happens against Paolini, Kostyuk stated she will leave London feeling positive about her performance this year.
“I told [coach] Sandra [Zaniewska], before my third round, before my fourth round, that I know I’ve done a good job already here,” Kostyuk stated. “I’m very happy with my progress on grass and just generally how I feel on the court. No matter how this match ends today, I’m still going to be happy and I’m excited for the American swing.”
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